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21 Oct, 11 tweets, 4 min read
Really not sure giving the UK government a PR victory against Brexit partisans is an EU strength, on the basis of history. Best left to the UK side for good and bad.
What about the EU being more generous with the UK on rules of origin for cars? If you're the EU, suspect you'd think, won't make much of a difference to talks with the UK, but might affect other trade talks. So don't bother. ft.com/content/720671…
But shouldn't an FTA be about what is good for the economy?

Category error. Just as Brexit wasn't about putting the economy first, so the EU don't either in FTAs (and nor do the UK). Politics first, economics some way behind.
Anyway back to the terse messages back and forth between the divorcing couple, sometimes passed on by friends / journalists... absolutely your choice of course, but the deal is the deal...
As someone reminded me yesterday, I always say the EU machine just keeps rolling. Mildy (but not very) different language. No change in content (except there will always be one or two baubles on offer). A process machine. Now do you want that deal....
During the late days of TTIP negotiations between the EU and US, the US proposed an "early harvest" or "phase 1" deal. Didn't really compute with the EU, too much change to process, didn't happen...
Anyway, EU talking deal in relatively friendly terms. But not actually saying anything particularly different to what has been known for some months about the contents. The only negotiation that matters remains inside the UK government.
Remember for there to be a deal the UK has to sign up for:

- not getting all the fish
- level playing field conditions
- Northern Ireland protocol confirmed
- Internal Market Bill clauses withdrawn
- other textual commitments

Not all MPs will buy that's a win.
Yes the government will have a majority for a deal. But it has seemingly done very little to prepare its own MPs for the reality of the deal to be, and we can expect noise at the very least, and the PM having to defend himself. Still can't judge which way this will go.
From Holger. He's right - this is a thread of boring detail ;) - but worth reading all the same (and of course the content is right)
Problem - easy to argue the EU has not fundamentally changed approach as Frost demanded, just saying same things as last few days but nicely. But equally easy to argue stop the panto, get on with it. UK in a corner of own making.

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More from @DavidHenigUK

David Henig Profile picture
22 Oct
We know. Everyone knows by now, except apparently in Number 10 where they think this is a secret. And such one dimensional thinking about getting trade deals. How about building up trust with your counterpart, or indeed your own side? Creating mutual wins?
I've spoken to a lot of trade negotiators in recent years and none has said the key to getting a deal is not wanting it. Domology - the art of pretending to be an expert in a way convincing to those around you but easily debunked by those with experience?
The most important lesson we should be taking from trade negotiations into that with the EU is that getting your own side on board is most of getting the deal. The deal is the space between the red lines they set down, with the bonus content in the detail.
Read 8 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
21 Oct
Personally not seeing a huge difference to anything said in the last week, but if the UK government wants to claim victory and restart talks, fine by me.
Trouble is each round of sovereign toughness makes that ultimate claim of victory harder to believe particularly with those who are hoping the UK government really means it.
Pretty uncompromising position from an influential MEP.
Read 9 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
20 Oct
It needs a decent length article to explain everything that has happened in UK-EU talks in the last few days, and what might come next, and @BBCkatyaadler obliges. bbc.co.uk/news/world-eur…
The funny version of UK-EU talks progress...
Anyway, where we are in talks today is that for a deal the UK will have to compromise on state aid, the Internal Market Bill, and governance, and the EU on fish. Its where we were this time last week, and three months ago. The EU will do this, will the UK? The rest is noise.
Read 17 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
19 Oct
I'd expect it will be a slow road back to a UK-EU deal in the event of no-deal this year, would require the politics to change significantly, since it would have been UK politcs, not the content of a trade deal, that would have defeated a deal.
As for UK demands for talks to resume, they are easy to meet if the UK wishes to declare them met. Or not if not. The majority view in the EU is that the UK is talking to itself and please let us know if you move beyond that.
Incidentally anyone want to hazard a guess at the number of developed countries globally who do not have or are not currently negotiating a trade deal with neighbouring countries?
Read 4 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
19 Oct
Yup. Or even, as I keep saying, does the PM want "this" deal? And I've had a lot of conversations on that in the last few days, nearly all of them move from the content and talk instead of his personality. Wants to be the hero to everyone. Isn't possible. So how does he decide?
If you assume the PM will create a heroic narrative deal or no-deal, that isn't really the basis of his decision. The real world impact of different UK and EU positions on issues is fairly slim. But can the PM more easily survive trade chaos or Brexit backbench dissent? That...
Getting closer but still annoyingly missing key points. The UK does not have full freedom on subsidies anyway because of WTO rules (and other trade deals we will sign). And there's much more to the PM's decision e.g. obvious u-turn on Northern Ireland itv.com/news/2020-10-1…
Read 19 tweets
David Henig Profile picture
19 Oct
Even church leaders are not immune from the Brexit cult that accuses those who with a different opinion of being divisive (and quite often, though not in this case, unpatriotic traitors). theguardian.com/world/2020/oct…
The relationship between a centralising government which struggles to deal with anyone else (e.g. Manchester, Scotland, London, the EU), and the pure Brexit cult for whom nothing (church, international law, economy) comes before hostility to the EU, is a dangerous one indeed.
A good example of the kind of nonsense currently coming from the pure Brexit cult (who let us recall right now want to break the Withdrawal Agreement and start a trade war with the EU). Encouraged by the UK government blaming the EU.
Read 7 tweets

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