Playbook this AM — a thread about status of COVID talks

TODAY -- the 91st day since Covid relief talks began -- is the day we will find out whether Congress will attempt to pass a stimulus bill before Election Day, which is TWO WEEKS from today.
@SpeakerPelosi and Washington’s Most Eager Man, @stevenmnuchin1 -- in Tel Aviv as of publication time -- will decide today if their differences are bridgeable. Or, as most Rs are whispering behind MNUCHIN’S back, we will find out how much MNUCHIN will cave to PELOSI to get a deal
THE PAIR SPOKE for an hour Monday afternoon, with MNUCHIN speaking from the Middle East. Both sides say they believe they have narrowed their differences -- but the two sides walked away with different impressions of how close they are to a deal.
Republicans said they had thought that an OSHA portion of the bill was all but locked up, and Democrats disagreed.
HERE’S A TANGIBLE NUGGET that might help you understand how the talks are going: PELOSI & MNUCHIN decided over the wknd that they had made enough top-line progress they could allow the Senate & House appropriations cmte to handle some of the specifics of spending portion
ONE AREA THAT WAS THOUGHT TO BE EASY TO SOLVE was a pot of money for transit, global health, the Indian Health Service, CDC and community health center funding, drinking water and rural energy.
PELOSI wanted $143b for this pot, and MNUCHIN and the administration wanted $113b
THE APPROPRIATIONS STAFF -- which frequently works out issues like this with no sweat -- met for an hour Monday afternoon and found themselves immediately deadlocked. Democrats suggested Republicans could not negotiate because of divisions in their conference.
Not to mention, Republicans had supported legislative offers in this neighborhood before. Republicans said Democrats are unbendable, and will settle only for the $143 billion.

both sides told us that they had no idea what exactly PELOSI and MNUCHIN had privately agreed to.
SO, LISTEN: COULD THEY COME TO a deal today? Maybe. Republicans believe it would require full capitulation from MNUCHIN, which is not impossible. But both sides believe it will be tricky to get it into legislative language and to the floor before Election Day.
THE LEVEL OF DISTRUST in MNUCHIN among Republicans is hard to overstate. Republicans in the White House, House and Senate think he’s a sellout, and believe he’ll do anything to get a deal -- even if it means rolling over on some long-held GOP orthodoxy.
Republicans involved in the talks said he has already agreed to more than $1.9 trillion in spending -- including a new $60 billion rental assistance program. And they are concerned he will cave to PELOSI on a big state-and-local-funding package, as well.
SENATE GOP WHIP JOHN THUNE of South Dakota: “It would be hard” to get 13 votes for any Covid relief bill in the $2 trillion neighborhood.

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More from @JakeSherman

21 Oct
WHAT'S GOING ON HERE ... Covid talk edition: @SpeakerPelosi held out against a lot of medium-sized deals during these last three months in search of a big one, and is now seeing MNUCHIN completely capitulate in front of her eyes, upping his offer to nearly $2T in spending
She sees how the W.H. has played this: Say no repeatedly over three months, and then say yes at the last minute, score no policy wins, relent on all of your previous views and split your party while accruing little political benefit to yourself because your timing is so bad.
EVEN IF PELOSI and MNUCHIN reach a deal, it’s not certain that whatever they produce will pass the Senate before or after the election. So, it’s fair to ask this: Why is PELOSI still in the game? Well, she believes the country needs it.
Read 12 tweets
20 Oct
a few impressions from today in stimulus world
— big that Munchin/Pelosi expect to come together tonight on testing/tracing. Mnuchin said last week he had accepted pelosi’s language. he hadnt, but now we are getting to the point that Mnuchin represented he was at last week
— Pelosi concedes that they have not at all solved state and local. they have not solved osha/liability — those have been two of the sticking points for several months. So there’s work to be done there. Pelosi will counter on liability today at 3.
— Pelosi says she needs a bill written by the end of the week to get it through before the election. it’s tues afternoon, and there’s no deal. so there’s some work to do here.
that brings us to mcconnell …
Read 4 tweets
19 Oct
Playbook PM

HOUSE DEMOCRATS have a 2 p.m. caucus call, and Treasury Secretary STEVEN MNUCHIN and Speaker NANCY PELOSI will speak at 3 p.m. about Covid relief negotiations. …
-- STILL AT ISSUE: state and local money (Republicans are at $300 billion, and Democrats are asking for $436 billion) … child care money … the earned income tax credit … health care provisions.
-- THE APPROPRIATIONS COMMITTEES in the House and Senate are now holding bipartisan staff-level conversations about drafting a Covid relief bill -- this is just the beginning of what could be a long and arduous process.
Read 4 tweets
19 Oct
G’morning. Quick thread from Playbook today

@SpeakerPelosi and Washington’s Most Eager Man, @stevenmnuchin1, are likely to speak about Covid relief this afternoon -- the 90th day since talks between the administration and PELOSI began back in July.
2 THINGS ARE HAPPENING RIGHT NOW: Rs on Capitol Hill are worried that @MNUCHIN and @realDonaldTrump will throw aside their concerns and agree to a $2 trillion-plus deal.
DEMOCRATS are wondering if the White House even wants a deal -- especially after MNUCHIN went on television last week and said he would accept the Democrats’ testing plan, but later struck 55% of what PELOSI had drawn up.
Read 10 tweets
17 Oct
Playbook this AM:

@SpeakerPelosi and Washington’s Most Eager Man, @stevenmnuchin1, will talk this evening at 7:30 p.m. about stimulus negotiations. It’s Oct. 17, 17 DAYS before Election Day, so we’re really late in the game here.
@SpeakerPelosi @stevenmnuchin1 MNUCHIN is leading a delegation to Israel, Bahrain and the UAE that leaves today and runs through Tuesday, so read into that as you may. (Yes, there are phones -- we get it -- but he’ll clearly have his hands full elsewhere.)
@SpeakerPelosi @stevenmnuchin1 THE TWO SIDES spent Friday on staff work -- PELOSI and MNUCHIN didn’t speak. But, as should be no surprise if you follow this space, MNUCHIN’S team did not “agree” to PELOSI’S testing plan, as he said on CNBC earlier this week.
Read 4 tweets
15 Oct
Playbook this AM: Is Covid relief ever going to happen?

Washington’s Most Eager Man @stevenmnuchin1 said yesterday that getting a Covid deal before the election is going to be tough.

I agree

There are lots of real-world implications that @JStein_WaPo does a good job laying out
@stevenmnuchin1 @JStein_WaPo BUT THERE’S SOMETHING that’s not getting nearly enough attention: It seems completely plausible that Covid relief not only will be delayed for now, but could be delayed for several months, and could even slip into late in the first quarter of 2021.
@stevenmnuchin1 @JStein_WaPo LET’S explore that. FOR ARGUMENT’S SAKE, let’s assume the Democrats definitely keep control of the House -- as everyone is predicting.

Let’s just acknowledge the W.H. doesnt want a lame-duck covid bill. They often don’t know what they want
Read 14 tweets

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