Thread by @JakeSherman

WHAT'S GOING ON HERE ... Covid talk edition: @SpeakerPelosi held out against a lot of medium-sized deals during these last three months in search of a big one, and is now seeing MNUCHIN completely capitulate in front of her eyes, upping his offer to nearly $2T in spending

She sees how the W.H. has played this: Say no repeatedly over three months, and then say yes at the last minute, score no policy wins, relent on all of your previous views and split your party while accruing little political benefit to yourself because your timing is so bad.

EVEN IF PELOSI and MNUCHIN reach a deal, it’s not certain that whatever they produce will pass the Senate before or after the election. So, it’s fair to ask this: Why is PELOSI still in the game? Well, she believes the country needs it.

Plus, no one wants to be left holding the bag if this falls apart. And it validates her view that Republicans were always going to crawl back to the table if she held out long enough.

THERE’S @stevenmnuchin1 , who clearly wants a deal badly enough he was able to nudge aside White House chief of staff @MarkMeadows after a few months and restart talks on his own, relenting on policies and top lines. MNUCHIN seems eager to get a relief bill, & to pls TRUMP

AS FOR TRUMP, he clearly wants something to brag about. His presidential campaign has turned into an unfunny episode of “Seinfeld.” It’s about nothing, yet everything at once. This deal would give him something to talk about.

WHAT ABOUT MCCONNELL? A LEADER’S POWER is keeping his troops together, and if the majority leader were to put the $2 trillion relief bill on the floor the week before the election, more than half of Republicans would vote against it.

Endangered lawmakers who voted for it would not be guaranteed a political bounce. So, he’s sitting on his hands in the Capitol, and urging the White House to pump the brakes. He is not involved in the talks, won’t get involved and will see how it shakes out.

His world believes that a deal is further off than PELOSI/MNUCHIN are letting on, and if an accord is reached, they do not believe there will be time to get it through before Election Day. He’s also not looking to get ahead of TRUMP, a president whose opinion changes by hour

MCCONNELL will allow Senate Republicans to vote on a $500 billion bill today, though, which theoretically gives them some political cover.

LET’S PROJECT OUT A BIT. Let’s say PELOSI and MNUCHIN come to an agreement Fri -- after debate. Let’s assume it takes all weekend to get drafted, and gets released Monday. The House has a 72-hour rule, so the earliest a vote could be is next Wed -- 6days before elex

Senate needs a few days to process this . Do you think senators will rush back to D.C. to consider in the days before the elex in a chamber controlled by MCCONNELL, who has urged the WH to abandon this deal & said he would consider it at “some point”? Or wait until after Nov. 3?