Thread by @MattGrossmann

"The Limits of Party: Congress & Lawmaking in a Polarized Era" shows that much policymaking commentary is wrong. Despite more partisan processes, legislative outcomes have not changed: they are just as bipartisan & (un)productive as usual
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amazon.com/Limits-Party-C…

Although Congress passes fewer bills, they pass more pages of legislation.

Out of 265 majority party priority items since 1985, congressional majorities have failed on 47% of them, mostly succeed on 21% of them, & achieved partial success on the rest.
amazon.com/Limits-Party-C…

No matter whether you consider all bills that pass Congress, only landmark legislation, or only majority party priorities, most of what passes generates support from minority party legislators & leaders. The path commentators expect, rolling over the opposition party, is rare.

When majority parties fail to pass their top policy agenda items, it is due to minority party opposition 47% of the time (primarily filibuster). 53% of the time it is due to failure to satisfy intra-party disagreement (despite polarized voting), often with no proposal developed

When majority parties succeed in their top agenda items, it is usually because they introduce uncontroversial proposals (38% of successes) or back down from their most controversial components (54%). There are only 19 cases (14% of successes) where they steamrolled the minority.

Even when Congress does pass something, more members express blame for losing or not getting all they wanted than positively claim credit, with little change over time (though party leaders are quoted more often). Unorthodox lawmaking is more common, but hasn't increased success.

Republican majorities have commonly failed on entitlement reforms. Democratic majorities have failed on diverse issues, especially on the environmental & trade. But both have succeeded often & through the same means (but I would add that the results are mostly liberal policies).

We remember the steamrolls because they are important (eg ACA, TCJA) but also because party fights generate more news coverage. They are rare. We also remember the failures due to minority opposition more than the bills that are never developed due to intra-party disagreements.

I would add that periods of attempted steamrolls (1993, 2009, 2017) are often followed by electoral shellacking.

This must-read book has big implications for a possible new Dem majority:
amazon.com/Limits-Party-C…

Most policy victories still come from consensus & compromise.

?s this raises for a possible Dem 2021:
1) What initiatives may fail due to intra-party disagreement? Could health, tax, & climate bills fall apart early?
2) What initiatives will they prioritize for easier bipartisan wins?
3) Where will they back down to get something through?