4 reasons why Joe Biden can win popular vote by 6 million — and still lose
President Trump has long claimed that the “Silent Majority” that elected him will again see him through.
desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/…
President Trump has long claimed that the “Silent Majority” that elected him will again see him through.
desmoinesregister.com/story/opinion/…
1. Big margins in states that were blue in 2016 won't help
Most of the demographic changes are transpiring in states that are the least significant in terms of determining Electoral College outcomes.
Most of the demographic changes are transpiring in states that are the least significant in terms of determining Electoral College outcomes.
2. Even a tie would probably go to Trump
A deadlock resulting from a 269-269 tie sends the decision to the U.S. House of Representatives — where Trump’s current, decisive edge in state delegations will probably hold, ending Biden’s hopes.
A deadlock resulting from a 269-269 tie sends the decision to the U.S. House of Representatives — where Trump’s current, decisive edge in state delegations will probably hold, ending Biden’s hopes.
That’s because even if Democrats retain control of the U.S. House, each state gets only one vote — which favors the GOP. With their U.S. senators included, at least 26 state delegations will almost certainly feature more Republicans than Democrats, which will doom Biden-Harris.
3. Trump has supporters who keep quiet about it
Reliable, recent polls by the highly respected Cato Institute show that 62% of Americans say they hold political views that they’re “afraid to express” to friends, co-workers, neighbors, golf partners, fellow parishioners...
Reliable, recent polls by the highly respected Cato Institute show that 62% of Americans say they hold political views that they’re “afraid to express” to friends, co-workers, neighbors, golf partners, fellow parishioners...
... car-poolers, and spouses, relatives and even pollsters.
Among conservatives, that number skyrockets to 77%.
Among conservatives, that number skyrockets to 77%.
Trump has long claimed that the “Silent Majority” that elected him will again see him through — and pundits have learned (have they?) to not discount his boasts, popular appeal, and electoral strength.
4. There's still lots of time before the election
History proves that many pre-Labor Day polls simply aren’t all that meaningful, and the poll-defying Trump is every pollster’s worst nightmare.
History proves that many pre-Labor Day polls simply aren’t all that meaningful, and the poll-defying Trump is every pollster’s worst nightmare.
The 45th president is actually well-positioned to be re-elected, because in politics, days can be an eternity.
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