Several aspects of the Proud Boys false incitement emails point to Iran - "FBI says Iran behind threatening emails sent to Florida Democrats" nbcnews.com/tech/tech-news… via @nbcnews
1 - was likely this was a foreign op as opposed to a domestic operation from the start, to employ stolen/hacked voter registration lists would lead to prosecution for a US domestic actor, 2 - Iran is both aggressive & sloppy, attempt things other states will not, and get caught
3 - cyber signatures for the webmail servers traced back to Saudi, an adversary of Iran, classic technique to tie up two enemies with one cyber move, Russia does this too, but, unlikely they'd move this way.
4 - iran's disinformation focuses heavily on racial and religious divides, Iran doesn't like Donald Trump and as we've noted @FPRI #FIE2020 they focus heavily on using race as an issue to divide against Trump fpri.org/fie/iran-media…
5 - If Russia wanted to create panic, mobilize by text, they'd do it on consequential day, not 2 weeks before election day. if Russia wants to mobilize Americans on race/religion, they'll do it person-to-person through witting & unwitting allies, like 2016 texastribune.org/2017/11/01/rus…
6 - Iran can also be seen in this message as its their traditional bridge into the U.S. audience space. securingdemocracy.gmfus.org/triad-of-disin…
7 - last big issue, seems both Iran and Russia have voter rolls, will Russia use them? have they already? Let's hope not.

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More from @selectedwisdom

8 Oct
Several significant elements to this domestic terrorism plot pointing to why it’s much bigger deal than the one off guy plots “F.B.I. Says Michigan Anti-Government Group Plotted to Kidnap Gov. Gretchen Whitmer” nytimes.com/2020/10/08/us/…
1- MI-Whitmer plot more than just 1, 2 people, dozen or more arrests so far, scale sizable and increasingly appears to be multi-state beyond Michigan
2- MI-Whitmer plot advanced far past “guy with bad thoughts, posts & some ideas”. See here a specific objective, defined time, deliberate recruitment, planning, reconnaissance, weapons testing ...way more advanced than most plots
Read 10 tweets
4 Oct
Seems we’re going to do the plot line of every episode of 7 seasons of the West Wing as a reality show in 2020
I’m young enough to remember when President Bartlet wasn’t completely honest about his MS diagnosis & Stockard Channing totally covered for him.
I also remember how the Presidential line of succession works because John Goodman, the Speaker of the House, briefly became President when the 25th amendment was invoked (also how I learned about the 25th and then refreshed during Homeland Season 7)
Read 4 tweets
2 Oct
Disinfo Disaster scenario “2. One or both candidates contract COVID-19
- Until the coronavirus is brought under control, we have a serious challenge ahead regarding the danger COVID-19 poses to 2020’s presidential candidates.” July 30, 2020
“As Election Day approaches, both candidates will be pressured to pursue more public appearances and in-person campaign events. President Trump largely refuses to wear a mask, and members of his inner circle have tested positive for the virus...” fpri.org/fie/disinforma…
“Every cough, sniff or misstep at a microphone, and at their ages they’ve both had many, could be exploited by their opponent and amplified from afar as a sign of COVID-19.”
Read 12 tweets
3 Sep
This DHS report is accurate and correct “Russia is 'amplifying' claims of mail-in voter fraud, intel bulletin warns - ABC News” abcnews.go.com/Politics/russi…
If you want to see what Russia says about mail-in ballots, @FPRI @rjchernaskey has been tracking it, links to stories included. Make your own Intel assessment fpri.org/fie/mail-in-ba…
And the pace of foreign amplification is only increasing see this @FPRI #fie2020 post fpri.org/fie/november-e…
Read 4 tweets
30 Aug
Ratcliffe statement again illustrates why not qualified to be DNI. Question at hand is election interference 2020 and Russia is clearly pursuing more election interference and democratic subversion at the moment than China
Ratcliffe statement conflates broader strategic aims, capabilities & limitations of Russia/China vis-a-vis US. Much to do to counter growing China, but has little to do with election in November
China spending about 1/10 energy on election 2020 as compared to Russia. Meanwhile, China expanding aggressively around the world in the absence of US leadership. Russia biggest issue for election 2020, China biggest challenge for US/World for next decade.
Read 5 tweets
21 Aug
Having spent much time working countering terrorism, remarkable similarities QAnon growth, Boogaloo, etc In beginning, tendency by most to say,”don’t worry, just a bunch fringe goof balls”, then few years later, a bomb goes off, a mass shooting perhaps. nytimes.com/2020/08/20/us/…
Politicians trying to play it both ways, near term trying to embrace it at arms length, win an election and ignore, oh no, won’t work, when zealots don’t get their desires, they’ll turn on those politicians.
.@CTCWP released a rare article on domestic extremism by @AmarAmarasingam on QAnon if your looking for data on how this has already gone bad ctc.usma.edu/the-qanon-cons…
Read 4 tweets

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