Alex Profile picture
22 Oct, 5 tweets, 2 min read
Nassim Taleb once said "almost all bitcoiners are total idiots. That is hyperbole. It would more accurate to say "many bitcoiners are total idiots". Many people have demonstrated S2F is nonsense that wouldn't pass an undergrad econometrics test. The author is full of sh*t.
That model will dominate the public narrative forever, even though anyone with a decent understanding of econometrics knows it is garbage.

Model was supposed to hit 35K by end of 2021. But "it's on track". It's open ended, so can always push the ball if wrong.
Why do I talk about S2F if it is such nonsense?

Because it is the second most popular narrative in crypto, it invades my feed and chats on a daily basis (people share it with me and ask me about it) and because I can't stand larpers and scammers.

This is a great paper. The math is very poorly presented, but the paper is great. Highly recommend reading this.

I have a typo in here.

Model says price would hit 30K by end of 2020. So the model is not "like clockwork". It will be off by 50% or so.

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More from @classicmacro

22 Oct
Paypal news pushed $BTC six months ahead.

I was thinking 13K by year end and 15K in H1'21, now 15K by year end and 20K in H1'21.

It is a very big deal.

The other three coins will be $ETH, $BCH and $LTC, so should forget about other alts for now.
Paypal demand hasn't even kicked-in yet, as crypto buying is not yet enabled.

What we saw prior to the news was simple front-running.

Paypal did not buy any bitcoin (I thought it might be doing so, following Square's steps, though that was not the case).
Between $ETH, $BCH and $LTC, $ETH could be somewhat dragged down by DeFi, while $BCH has an upcoming fork around mid-November. I bought some $BCH today for the first time in 2020, and plan to be trading all three.
Read 6 tweets
21 Oct
1/ A deeper look at what happens when the Bitcoin - Ethereum correlation breaks down.

Looking at the 20 day correlation of returns, since 2018 correlation only broke down twice during a bitcoin upmove.

In May/2019, and now.
2/ Back in 2019, decorrelation started in early April, which shows in the correlation plot with a 20 day lag.

A major $ETHBTC correction (lower) ensued.
3/ This plot shows the 10 day cummulative $ETH forward returns following every time since 2018 where the 5 day correlations of returns fell below 0.5. As it just happened.

What can you see there?

Nothing, there is no clear pattern, returns are evenly distributed.
Read 6 tweets
20 Oct
$BTC price action has been very strong and orderly, against a backdrop of negative funding for *all* perpetuals' open interest, which speaks of a spot driven market. No interest in fading this move. Would need to see a massive spike before hedging any longs, maybe above 13K.
Today's BTC-ETH divergence, with $BTC up and $ETH down, has been crypto's talk of the day. Some attribute it to Powell's CBDC talk, though I think it is mostly related to Square inspired flows.
The USD has been taking a big hit in the last two days in response to central bankers' statements. But the dollar does not impact $BTC and $ETH assymetrically. BTC-DXY and ETH-DXY correlations have been similar since April, with ETH's correlation in fact slightly stronger.
Read 4 tweets
18 Oct
"At present, there is no direct evidence on the effectiveness of universal masking of healthy people in the community to prevent infection with respiratory viruses, including COVID-19." - World Heatlh Organizarion, June 2020

~source: apps.who.int/iris/bitstream… Image
"At the present time, the widespread use of masks by healthy people in the community setting is not yet supported by high quality or direct scientific evidence and there are potential benefits and harms to consider." - World Heatlh Organizarion, June 2020

(same source)
Potential harms/disadvantages of mask wearing by healthy people in the general public, according to the World Health Organization 👇 Image
Read 7 tweets
7 Oct
Think we are in the brink of an alts short squeeze.
Here's the short squeeze.

Unfortunately a massive long squeeze came before. $YFI died last night, temporarily taking all of DeFi down with it.

Reason I expected a short squeeze was chart based. Funding was ratehr flat across the board, and I was wrong.
Volume indicates that may have been the $YFI bottom, and the DeFi bottom by extension. Better calling it in real time, but it was a busy night to be tweeting, particularly when dead tired and trading. The one thing making me doubt has been the funding which never went negative.
Read 6 tweets
4 Oct
has been getting Creamed. Recent underperformance relative to other cryptos has been notable. One could argue it is the chart. But it is not. One can find plenty equally poor charts across crypto. This IMO is the marketplace punishing by removing the Cronje premium.
Great thread. Yields matter. However, the main reason IMO was Yearn's blatant negligence around the launch, and how poorly the aftermath was handled. Said so when it happened, not in hindsight later. Many exited/reduced positions because of it.

The bigger picture bull case remains unchanged. Odds are high this whole ordeal is short term noise. But in the meantime price crashed a very meaningful 45% in six days.

The event and how it was handled should remind speculators of how high Founder Risk is with .
Read 7 tweets

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