I’ve spent the last week improving my quant model which is up to 25 data points/signals...it’s definitely looking stronger.
For the next few hours if you want to quote retweet this with one of your stocks I’ll run it through my quant model and give you a 12 month price target.
FWIW, after $TSLA reported earnings yesterday my model updated and the new 12 month price targets are:
$602 = based on the data
$718 = based on data plus S&P inclusion
Last Friday the model told me to sell $TWLO $BAND $DDOG and buy $FB $PINS $NLS which has certainly paid off.
As I become more comfortable with my model, the data and the projections I’ll use it to assist me on when to be buying/adding and when to be trimming/selling.
Apparently a lot of people don’t know what a “quote retweet” is 🥴
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I think we need to have a little chat about entry points into positions and why waiting for the “perfect” price is usually a pointless and self-defeating strategy.
At least 25-30 times per day I get a direct tweet or DM from someone that goes something like this “I really like $CRWD or $TSLA or $TDOC but I’m not sure if I should buy today or wait and see if it pulls back another 2-3%?”
Of course we all want to buy our stocks at the lowest price possible but none of us are smart enough to know when that will be.
Let me share the same advice with you all that I share in my DM’s.
6 months ago I began working on my own quant model that uses 16 data points/signals to help determine price targets for my stocks.
The model is still a work in progress but feel free to give me one of your top stocks and I’ll run it through and give you a 12 month price target.
FWIW, I use the quant model to help determine entry/exit prices for my stocks as well as position sizing based on the price targets.
There are hundreds if not thousands of data points/signals that impact a stocks performance so I’m excited to keep improving my model over time.
If you get a minute please fill out this survey to help me pick a name for my new show about stocks, investing & building wealth forms.gle/dtH8hPyGddTe4F…
I did the survey yesterday through @SurveyMonkey but they won’t let me see the results unless I upgrade to a paid plan 🙄
I’m finalizing the name for my new daily show. Please reply with your favorite or suggest one:
1) Finding the Growth 2) Outperforming the Markets 3) Beating the Markets 4) Talking Growth 5) Quest for Growth 6) MarketChatter 7) StockChat 8) Adding Alpha 9) Good Morning FinTwit
I took the 9 choices above and added some additional options from the replies. Please take 5 seconds to pick your favorite name and I’ll share the final results in a couple days. Thanks for the help. surveymonkey.com/r/3M6NWRR
Jonah’s Whales took a quick lead which is scary.
I don’t think I’d be able to start off each show with “Welcome to Jonah’s Whales” without laughing.
Since $FSLY is down 27% after hours b/c they lowered quarterly rev guidance (likely b/c of TikTok), figured it would be a good time to re-share the tweet below.
The best growth stocks will pullback 20-40% from time to time. These are buying opportunities for long term investors.
Some people on here know that I had a diversified portfolio going into September. Then we saw a big pullback in growth stocks so I sold the bottom 2/3 of my portfolio and went to approx 80% $FSLY, 20% $SE and 20% $TSLA.
$FSLY was under $75 at this time.
Over the past 5 weeks I have been trimming $FSLY aggressively once it got back to $95.
From $95 to $135 where it got this week I trimmed my position from 80% down to 10%.
Having $FSLY down 30% after hours is painful but way less painful because I had a plan and stuck to it.
Yesterday I posted my current portfolio so today I’m following up with a thread to explain why I own all 25 of my current stocks plus my updated 12 month price targets.
Hitting these price targets will require strong ongoing fundamentals and broad market tailwinds.
$FSLY: Fastly has the best in class CDN and edge computing technology plus with the recent acquisition of @signalsciences they are making the best websites faster and more secure including TikTok, Shopify, Spotify, Etsy, Pinterest, Airbnb, Twitter and hundreds more.
PT = $190
$TSLA: Tesla is leading the EV renovation, approx 3% of global car sales are EV’s and I believe over the next 10 years this goes to 50%, $TSLA will face increased competition but they have a massive head start. Solar and batteries are icing on the cake.
I have no idea what the next 11 weeks will look like for stocks but I’m cautiously optimistic with low rates, trillions of stimulus, trillions of investable cash and of course performance chasing from the big mutual/hedge funds.
I’ll keep giving portfolio updates twice per week.
Over the past few days I’ve been trimming my top positions and putting the proceeds into new positions as well as adding to existing positions that I believe have more upside over the next 3-6 months than my recent winners.