I think we need to have a little chat about entry points into positions and why waiting for the “perfect” price is usually a pointless and self-defeating strategy.
At least 25-30 times per day I get a direct tweet or DM from someone that goes something like this “I really like $CRWD or $TSLA or $TDOC but I’m not sure if I should buy today or wait and see if it pulls back another 2-3%?”
Of course we all want to buy our stocks at the lowest price possible but none of us are smart enough to know when that will be.

Let me share the same advice with you all that I share in my DM’s.
I usually ask them what type of investor they are:

“Are you trading your stocks or planning to buy and hold?” 99% of the time they say buy & hold

“Assuming you still like this stock for the next 3 years, where do you think the price can go”

Usually they say “2-3x higher”
So I reply “perfect, you just made my point, if you think this $100 stock is going to $200 or $300 over the next few years then why do you care if you pay $100 today or maybe get to buy this stock for $97 next week?”
“What happens if you never get the pullback you’re hoping for and end up chasing the stock and paying $110. How will that make you feel.”

They usually reply with “I’d feel like an idiot”.
Stop trying to time the markets. If you’re a long term investor and adding money to your accounts on a regular basis then it’s foolish trying to buy at the perfect price. I also guarantee if you got that 5% pullback you’d be too scared to pull the trigger so why stress about it.
Find stocks you want to own for the next 2-3 years and stop worrying about buying at the cheapest price possible.

More often than not you’ll end up chasing these stocks higher or even worse you’ll be too stubborn to chase and will end up missing out on a great company.

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More from @JonahLupton

22 Oct
I’ve spent the last week improving my quant model which is up to 25 data points/signals...it’s definitely looking stronger.

For the next few hours if you want to quote retweet this with one of your stocks I’ll run it through my quant model and give you a 12 month price target.
FWIW, after $TSLA reported earnings yesterday my model updated and the new 12 month price targets are:

$602 = based on the data

$718 = based on data plus S&P inclusion
Last Friday the model told me to sell $TWLO $BAND $DDOG and buy $FB $PINS $NLS which has certainly paid off.

As I become more comfortable with my model, the data and the projections I’ll use it to assist me on when to be buying/adding and when to be trimming/selling.
Read 4 tweets
18 Oct
6 months ago I began working on my own quant model that uses 16 data points/signals to help determine price targets for my stocks.

The model is still a work in progress but feel free to give me one of your top stocks and I’ll run it through and give you a 12 month price target.
FWIW, I use the quant model to help determine entry/exit prices for my stocks as well as position sizing based on the price targets.

There are hundreds if not thousands of data points/signals that impact a stocks performance so I’m excited to keep improving my model over time.
If you get a minute please fill out this survey to help me pick a name for my new show about stocks, investing & building wealth forms.gle/dtH8hPyGddTe4F…

I did the survey yesterday through @SurveyMonkey but they won’t let me see the results unless I upgrade to a paid plan 🙄
Read 5 tweets
17 Oct
I’m finalizing the name for my new daily show. Please reply with your favorite or suggest one:

1) Finding the Growth
2) Outperforming the Markets
3) Beating the Markets
4) Talking Growth
5) Quest for Growth
6) MarketChatter
7) StockChat
8) Adding Alpha
9) Good Morning FinTwit
I took the 9 choices above and added some additional options from the replies. Please take 5 seconds to pick your favorite name and I’ll share the final results in a couple days. Thanks for the help. surveymonkey.com/r/3M6NWRR
Jonah’s Whales took a quick lead which is scary.

I don’t think I’d be able to start off each show with “Welcome to Jonah’s Whales” without laughing.
Read 4 tweets
14 Oct
Since $FSLY is down 27% after hours b/c they lowered quarterly rev guidance (likely b/c of TikTok), figured it would be a good time to re-share the tweet below.

The best growth stocks will pullback 20-40% from time to time. These are buying opportunities for long term investors.
Some people on here know that I had a diversified portfolio going into September. Then we saw a big pullback in growth stocks so I sold the bottom 2/3 of my portfolio and went to approx 80% $FSLY, 20% $SE and 20% $TSLA.

$FSLY was under $75 at this time.
Over the past 5 weeks I have been trimming $FSLY aggressively once it got back to $95.

From $95 to $135 where it got this week I trimmed my position from 80% down to 10%.

Having $FSLY down 30% after hours is painful but way less painful because I had a plan and stuck to it.
Read 10 tweets
14 Oct
Yesterday I posted my current portfolio so today I’m following up with a thread to explain why I own all 25 of my current stocks plus my updated 12 month price targets.

Hitting these price targets will require strong ongoing fundamentals and broad market tailwinds.
$FSLY: Fastly has the best in class CDN and edge computing technology plus with the recent acquisition of @signalsciences they are making the best websites faster and more secure including TikTok, Shopify, Spotify, Etsy, Pinterest, Airbnb, Twitter and hundreds more.

PT = $190
$TSLA: Tesla is leading the EV renovation, approx 3% of global car sales are EV’s and I believe over the next 10 years this goes to 50%, $TSLA will face increased competition but they have a massive head start. Solar and batteries are icing on the cake.

PT = $650
Read 26 tweets
13 Oct
Portfolio 10/13:
$FSLY 10%
$TSLA 9.4%
$SE 6.7%
$CRWD 5.9%
$ETSY 5.4%
$SQ 5.4%
$PTON 5.1%
$ROKU 5.1%
$TDOC 5.0%
$DOCU 4.9%
$PINS 4.3%
$DDOG 4.2%
$SHOP 4.1%
$API 3.9%
$Z 3.6%
$NET 2.5%
$CYRX 2.3%
$ZYXI 1.8%
$FTCH 1.8%
$RDFN 1.5%
$NLS 1.5%
$IIPR 1.4%
$LMND 1.4%
$BAND 1.4%
$DKNG 1.3%
As of the close today I’m up 200% year to date.

I have no idea what the next 11 weeks will look like for stocks but I’m cautiously optimistic with low rates, trillions of stimulus, trillions of investable cash and of course performance chasing from the big mutual/hedge funds.
I’ll keep giving portfolio updates twice per week.

Over the past few days I’ve been trimming my top positions and putting the proceeds into new positions as well as adding to existing positions that I believe have more upside over the next 3-6 months than my recent winners.
Read 6 tweets

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