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22 Oct, 4 tweets, 1 min read
CZECH REPUBLIC & HUNGARY
are currently reporting higher daily Covid-19 deaths per M than other European countries. Current daily deaths are significantly higher than their spring peaks. Interestingly, both experienced far lower earlier total deaths than many other countries. Image
One possibility is that the lower earlier totals correspond to fewer infections, leaving a larger proportion of the population still susceptible.
Incidentally, I do agree with people who've pointed out the unpleasantness of treating this sort of comparison almost as a macabre spectator sport. That should not be the intention. The purpose is to use the information to learn about the virus, value of measures taken etc.
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More from @RuminatorDan

Ruminator Dan Profile picture
14 Oct
AUTUMN 2020 CORONAVIRUS GROWTH
IN UK, FRANCE, ITALY & SPAIN
APPEARS TO BE MUCH MILDER THAN SPRING

An analysis:

[14 Oct 2020 v1]
[Notes added to charts in grey bubbles are my own.]
[Analysis, opinions & errors my own.]
Several countries that experienced relatively high fatalities in the spring have seen an autumn increase. The patterns are similar.

Comparing the recent increases to the spring suggests that the underlying situation might be significantly less severe than generally believed.
TESTING: See notes on chart.

Despite numerous issues relating to testing, we will treat the data as accurate here so as to err on the side of caution & good faith. This should give us a worst case picture, with the reality being likely somewhat milder.
Read 10 tweets
Ruminator Dan Profile picture
5 Oct
An estimated 750M, 10% of world’s population have been infected by Covid-19, says WHO's Dr M Ryan

This implies far lower Infection Fatality Rate than previously claimed & potentially significant implications for many countries.

Analysis:

[5Oct2020_1]

irishtimes.com/news/ireland/i…
While clearly this is only a "best guess" figure, we can still conduct a rough analysis, leading to an interesting conclusion.

10% of world population ~ 750M
Covid-19 deaths to date ~ 1M
Implied IFR = 1/750 = ~ 0.13%
(IFR = Infection Fatality Rate)
An IFR of ~0.13% is almost an order of magnitude lower than the ~1% values seen in much of the predictive modelling that has been used to guide policy, lockdown decisions etc. (E.g. ICL used 0.9% for UK in March).

Even for a rough estimate, this is a significant difference.
Read 10 tweets
Ruminator Dan Profile picture
26 Sep
ANALYSIS OF SARS-CoV-2 GROWTH ILLUSTRATION PRESENTED AT VALLANCE-WHITTY DOWNING STREET BRIEFING ON 21 SEP 2020

Implied CFR appears to be >50% lower than IFR used by ICL in March, suggesting new cases in red area would lead to ~2,000 deaths (~5% of spring total).

[26 Sep 2020v1] Image
The red area would contain a total of ~500,000 new cases.

How many deaths would be expected to occur as a result?

PV commented that, by mid October, there might be 50,000 new cases per day & that this would be expected to lead, a month or so later, to 200 plus deaths per day.
This implies a Case Fatality Rate of approx:
CFR = 200 / 50,000 = ~ 0.4%.

Since not all infections are detected, the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR) will be lower still.

This ~0.4% CFR is, however, in itself 50%+ lower than the 0.9% IFR used in ICL’s March paper & modelling.
Read 6 tweets
Ruminator Dan Profile picture
24 Sep
SEP 2020 CORONAVIRUS CASES INCREASES
IN UK, FRANCE, ITALY, SPAIN
APPEAR DIFFERENT FROM SPRING

The UK, along with other European countries, is experiencing a rise in SARS-CoV-2 cases.

[24 September 2020, v1.1]
[Analysis, opinions & errors my own.]
Many think this to be a similar situation to that experienced in the spring. However, there are also reasons to suspect that this might not be the case.

Here, an analysis using testing, cases and deaths data:
TESTING:

Testing has increased enormously. In spring mainly the ill were tested & the quantity of tests was far lower. In terms of true numbers of infections, we were only detecting the tip of the iceberg. Today, we conduct mass testing of the healthy.
Read 14 tweets
Ruminator Dan Profile picture
23 Sep
Faucci & recent UK comments disagree with recent evidence re low HE threshold/pre existing immunity etc. However, even without knowing the underlying mechanism, the observed reality (data) strongly suggests it. Sweden, e.g., is prime evidence. Note also how those locations 1/4
in which the virus appears to have run its course have fairly similar outcomes. The differences between fatalities in these locations are small compared to the fact that they are all about a tenth of what was predicted. This is meaningful information. 2/4
If the "high fatality & all susceptible & lockdowns worked" scenario was true for these locations, one would expect more variance between them than we see, because outcomes would be highly sensitive to the measures taken & their timing (as Neil F himself has, I believe said) 3/4
Read 4 tweets
Ruminator Dan Profile picture
15 Sep
Glanced through it so apols to all concerned for any misintetptetation on my part. Many points there so will comment on just 2.
1) Gompertz: Agree & disagree. The death curves for most locations are gompertz-like but not 'perfect' Gompertz, due, for example to effects of 1/n
2/n. time lag to death, which kinks that now-famous near-linear log(daily/cumulative) deaths plot. Happy to discuss that with any of the technical guys. I think the key point with Gompertz though is that what we have here appears to act as a natural process - which it does.
...
3/n 2) Sweden: here's some work I did looking at the UK & Sweden. Please understand it though. The fact that Sweden and UK both have near identical deaths isn't as interesting as the fact that they don't have very different deaths.
...
Read 8 tweets

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