COVID Update October 22: Europe is having a second wave. How quickly can they bounce back?

Faster than a country that makes no effort: the US. 1/
Despite a lot of wishful thinking, COVID-19 has not gone away.

(Remember the “people have natural immunity” & “the virus died out”, & the “it will disappear” man?)

Sadly wishful fantasies don’t fight the virus. Scott Atlas’s strategy of ignoring the virus doesn’t work. Only we fight the virus. 3/
By the way, everyone who mentions “Scott Atlas” automatically rolls their eyes when they say his name. Try doing it without. I dare you. It’s nearly impossible. 4/
After the spring wave in the US & Europe, most European countries reduce their daily case growth to near zero. The US low water mark was roughly 20,000 but went up to 60,000 in July. 5/
Fighting a new wave of cases from 0 and from 10s of thousands is a different ball game.

One of them you never have enough tests. Enough tracing. In the other case it’s America where only Communists contact trace anyway. 6/
What also matters is what happened during the quieter period. Are people fatigued, protesting masks? Has there been unified messaging or division? Which describes the US? 7/
People are fatigued everywhere. But the hope between waves is that citizens got a break of sorts. At US case levels that was harder.

We took a break with high cases. They did with low ones. It matters. 8/
Europe has taken its eye off the ball as well. It’s easy to do. And the culture in Europe is not the same as it is in Asia and Africa where fighting infectious disease is a more routine part of life. 9/
In Asian countries there will be occasional outbreaks. That’s not in doubt. The bigger question is how quickly people react or are in denial. 10/
We get lulled by good news. Death rates are lower than in the spring. We think maybe this is the flu (we have 10x the deaths as the flu per @T_Inglesby). So when hospitals don’t start right away we think “maybe this is different!” When deaths lag as they do, we think the same.11/
Then they tick up and we get surprised. 12/
There is no substitute for a broad vaccination program, universal masks, and testing-tracing-and isolation. 13/
But resilience and keeping a reserve to respond when cases rise despite the exhaustion people feel is also a core skill. 14/
While it’s a weary journey, we forget from time to time how much of what happens is under our control.

Mask mandates and bar closings always bring COVID down. Opening/releasing them always brings them up. 100%. 15/
You don’t like having your bars closed? Go listen to @Karaswisher

Even if you listen to just her last five minutes you will be so glad you did. 16/
Yet a bunch of us don’t want to. We don’t want to wear masks. Or distance. So people make stuff up that sounds enticing. That it’s only old people who die and they can be isolated. 17/
Sweden couldn’t isolate people. The US can’t isolate people.
Only reducing case count in a community makes people safe.

To be fair the US can’t keep Russia off of Facebook. But still. 18/
And the cost of COVID in the US in 2020 has been 2.5 million years of life. Half of those years from people under 65.

An average of 10 years lost.

(per a NYT analysis) 19/
Come try to tell me a year of @ASlavittsMom life doesn’t matter Scott (🙄— damn couldn’t help it!). Come my way with that shit.

Don’t cross my path with your herd thinning shit.20/
Getting the country to remember & care about that again is a matter of leadership, of empathy, of reaching a reserve of resilience, and of working hard to make many more activities safe so we can sustain this.

We can do this! We are not giving in to the eugenics crowd. 21/
Aren’t the crowd thinners supposed to be a superior breed? This is one shitty superior breed. Disappointing. 22/
Congress needs to do a better job protecting people and small businesses that are hurt.

The president failed us and then has refused to pay to support us. 23/
It is time. /end

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Andy Slavitt @ 🏡

Andy Slavitt @ 🏡 Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @ASlavitt

24 Oct
COVID Update October 24: I spent the day reviewing data with & from the White House team in the spread of COVID-19.

The latest rush of new cases is very concerning. There are new insights as well. Will finish posting shortly.1/
I’m not going to pull punches. It’s a shit show. Here’s the quick overview.

April: intensely local
May-June: locale-based spread
July: entire South. Every county
August: some easing
September: South better, rise if cases in heartland

That leads us til Now and Next. 2/
Now: Deeply penetrated in rural communities. Only counties w/ <1000 are spared. Heartland on fire, but just beginning. College spread story (I will come back to this as a main event). Testing leveling off. Southern states & East beginning to get concerning again. 3/
Read 22 tweets
24 Oct
COVID Update October 22: There are 41,000 people in the hospital right now with COVID.

So it’s time to talk about Thanksgiving. 1/
I say this as someone who LOVES Thanksgiving. I love my family. I love for excuses to get together. Yes I love stuffing even more. Spatchcock the bird and ... Oh, I digress! 2/
Let’s start with who comes to Thanksgiving. College kids! And older people!

Remember we’re supposed to “isolate the old people?” from Scott Atlas and the herders. 3/
Read 24 tweets
23 Oct
Those damn gold star families.
We do need to avoid the gymnasiums.
I have no money because I don’t want money.
Read 18 tweets
21 Oct
COVID Update October 21:

A few nights ago I described how we need to do 2 things.

Account for the past
Fight for our future

I wrote about how we need to account for the past. But I haven’t had the words to focus on the future.

Now I think I do. Or will try. 1/
Thinking about the future turns out to be really hard when we are deep in a hole we must climb out from.

Writing about the past— the need for an accountability election— was easy. Here it is if you didn’t see & want to. 2/
But the future. The future. It feels so uncertain right now. It took me some time. And many many stupid sounding drafts. (Yes for the trolls, even stupider than this!) 3/
Read 28 tweets
19 Oct
BREAKING: Data for the month suggests for the first time COVID-19 has moved from a region by region crisis to a national one.

It needs a national solution.

More to follow shortly.
Here is a graph that says a lot. One thing you see is that cases are growing since April. Now that alone doesn’t tell us everything since testing is growing but it does tell us some things.

It’s from @NephronResearch
One thing to note is the number of states where cases are growing by 1000 cases/day.

April: 6
May/June: 6
July: 14 (19 peak)
August: 12
September: 12
October 15th: 25
Read 8 tweets
18 Oct
COVID Update October 18: It is time.

For the past.
And more importantly for the future.

Today: the past. Tomorrow I will write about the future. 1/
Trump has never faced accountability for his actions. His career in bankruptcy is a master class in how to behave when you don't care about others. Take their money, don't pay it back. Take their services, don't pay it back. 2/
Doing everything you can to avoid taxes including hiding money overseas, illegally using a foundation, writing off blackmail payments, trying to outlawyer the tax code. That's not "savvy." Its savage.

It is not patriotic. Yet, to date no accountability. 3/
Read 34 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!