Thread by @ASlavitt

COVID Update October 22: Europe is having a second wave. How quickly can they bounce back?

Faster than a country that makes no effort: the US. 1/

Despite a lot of wishful thinking, COVID-19 has not gone away.

(Remember the “people have natural immunity” & “the virus died out”, & the “it will disappear” man?)

2/

Sadly wishful fantasies don’t fight the virus. Scott Atlas’s strategy of ignoring the virus doesn’t work. Only we fight the virus. 3/

By the way, everyone who mentions “Scott Atlas” automatically rolls their eyes when they say his name. Try doing it without. I dare you. It’s nearly impossible. 4/

After the spring wave in the US & Europe, most European countries reduce their daily case growth to near zero. The US low water mark was roughly 20,000 but went up to 60,000 in July. 5/

Fighting a new wave of cases from 0 and from 10s of thousands is a different ball game.

One of them you never have enough tests. Enough tracing. In the other case it’s America where only Communists contact trace anyway. 6/

What also matters is what happened during the quieter period. Are people fatigued, protesting masks? Has there been unified messaging or division? Which describes the US? 7/

People are fatigued everywhere. But the hope between waves is that citizens got a break of sorts. At US case levels that was harder.

We took a break with high cases. They did with low ones. It matters. 8/

Europe has taken its eye off the ball as well. It’s easy to do. And the culture in Europe is not the same as it is in Asia and Africa where fighting infectious disease is a more routine part of life. 9/

In Asian countries there will be occasional outbreaks. That’s not in doubt. The bigger question is how quickly people react or are in denial. 10/

We get lulled by good news. Death rates are lower than in the spring. We think maybe this is the flu (we have 10x the deaths as the flu per @T_Inglesby). So when hospitals don’t start right away we think “maybe this is different!” When deaths lag as they do, we think the same.11/

Then they tick up and we get surprised. 12/

There is no substitute for a broad vaccination program, universal masks, and testing-tracing-and isolation. 13/

But resilience and keeping a reserve to respond when cases rise despite the exhaustion people feel is also a core skill. 14/

While it’s a weary journey, we forget from time to time how much of what happens is under our control.

Mask mandates and bar closings always bring COVID down. Opening/releasing them always brings them up. 100%. 15/

You don’t like having your bars closed? Go listen to @Karaswisher

Even if you listen to just her last five minutes you will be so glad you did. 16/

Smarturl.it/inthebubble

Yet a bunch of us don’t want to. We don’t want to wear masks. Or distance. So people make stuff up that sounds enticing. That it’s only old people who die and they can be isolated. 17/

Sweden couldn’t isolate people. The US can’t isolate people.
Only reducing case count in a community makes people safe.

To be fair the US can’t keep Russia off of Facebook. But still. 18/

And the cost of COVID in the US in 2020 has been 2.5 million years of life. Half of those years from people under 65.

An average of 10 years lost.

(per a NYT analysis) 19/

Come try to tell me a year of @ASlavittsMom life doesn’t matter Scott (🙄— damn couldn’t help it!). Come my way with that shit.

Don’t cross my path with your herd thinning shit.20/

Getting the country to remember & care about that again is a matter of leadership, of empathy, of reaching a reserve of resilience, and of working hard to make many more activities safe so we can sustain this.

We can do this! We are not giving in to the eugenics crowd. 21/

Aren’t the crowd thinners supposed to be a superior breed? This is one shitty superior breed. Disappointing. 22/

Congress needs to do a better job protecting people and small businesses that are hurt.

The president failed us and then has refused to pay to support us. 23/

It is time. /end