COVID Update October 22: There are 41,000 people in the hospital right now with COVID.

So it’s time to talk about Thanksgiving. 1/
I say this as someone who LOVES Thanksgiving. I love my family. I love for excuses to get together. Yes I love stuffing even more. Spatchcock the bird and ... Oh, I digress! 2/
Let’s start with who comes to Thanksgiving. College kids! And older people!

Remember we’re supposed to “isolate the old people?” from Scott Atlas and the herders. 3/
The number one source of spread now is family gatherings. Number one. And that’s before this big holiday.

Look at where COVID is now. 4/
If you want to invite people from Maine, excellent. Maybe you’ll be safe. But if you’re in Maine, don’t go! You’ll screw up Maine.

Are Maine and Vermont joining Canada? (Don’t go. You’re all we’ve got...) 5/
Do a #Zoomsgiving instead.

Here’s what I’m talking about. We could have stayed away Memorial Day and had a good Independence Day. We didn’t. We could have been careful on the 4th & had a good Labor Day. We didn’t. We could have been careful Labor Day. Nope. 6/
Eventually we will need to skip a holiday.

Every time we don’t we seem to feel more deprived. Less likely to sacrifice. 7/
My grandparents went without coffee for 2 years!

If I don’t have a dark roast by 10am I’m a whiny baby with a dull headache. 8/
It’s pretty clear at this point that the government is too scared of public reaction to tell you what to do. To tell you what’s good for. 9/
I’m not talking about Trump. He doesn’t give an actual fuck if you live or die (yes, I mean you too @DonaldJTrumpJr). I’m talking about every other politician in the country who now equivocates. Like this... 10/
“Well, we can’t tell people what to do. We can suggest. But I mean people have their liberties. And we have to respect their rights.”

Wake me when you’re through @KristiNoem. 44% of South Dakotans tests were positive yesterday. 11/
Here’s the thing. Stop breathing on each other. For a while at least. Til case counts come down.

Yes, we all know not everybody does from this. But A LOT OF PEOPLE DO DIE. 12/
I was on a press call with a State Senator today. He can ID himself if he likes. He told a story about his father in law. Built a log cabin with his bare hands in Wisconsin. Successful businessman. Big supporter of the president. Teased this state Senator....13/
...who is also a doc and a hospitalist in addition to being his son in law. Said it was a hoax. Went to bars. Wouldn’t wear a mask. Told him he was tougher and the virus was “a bunch of BS.” He died on a ventilator last Thursday. He said it was a “violent death.” 14/
And worse: his father in law probably gave it to other people who didn’t think this was a joke.

This Thanksgiving his father in law and school age kids would have been together at their house. It would have been nice. But also potentially deadly. 15/
I love my mom. We planned to have Thanksgiving with her and my boys as we do every year. We love it.

No way. No way. No way. She has decades in her. 16/
We’ve lost 2.5 million years of people’s lives this year. I will be thankful to skip Thanksgiving.

Will do 2 next year. Or 3 the following year. Or I’ll be thankful every day for every life saved. 17/
It’s way way way too easy to despair over the lives lost. Don’t.

Let’s try this instead. Save the next life. Save the next one. The one we don’t need to lose. 18/
The projections of what could happen between Thanksgiving and Inauguration Day if we don’t pay attention to this are startling. 19/
I have no moral high ground here. The truth is I miss my mom as much as you miss yours. The truth is I think all the time about how to have my mom here. I think I can cheat the system. I rationalize. I think “what if we play the odds?” “It probably won’t happen.” 20/
I have no moral high ground. Because I can rationalize that those risks are worth it.

But hospitalizations are up 40% in the last 30 days. 21/
I don’t want to go through what this State Senator did. @ASlavittsMom doesn’t deserve that.

We will fight through this a day at a time. And let Thanksgiving be shitty. Let the scientists have a fighting chance with the vaccine. 22/
Hospitals haven’t cancelled elective surgeries. Nurses are scared to death & getting sick. People are starting to come in. It’s stressful.

These heroes will come in Thanksgiving & the day after and the week after. That’s what they do. 23/
I will remind myself about them when I’m feeling sorry about Thanksgiving.

I’m optimistc about the future. I am. It’s late November that scares me. Let’s get right past it. /end

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More from @ASlavitt

24 Oct
COVID Update October 24: I spent the day reviewing data with & from the White House team in the spread of COVID-19.

The latest rush of new cases is very concerning. There are new insights as well. Will finish posting shortly.1/
I’m not going to pull punches. It’s a shit show. Here’s the quick overview.

April: intensely local
May-June: locale-based spread
July: entire South. Every county
August: some easing
September: South better, rise if cases in heartland

That leads us til Now and Next. 2/
Now: Deeply penetrated in rural communities. Only counties w/ <1000 are spared. Heartland on fire, but just beginning. College spread story (I will come back to this as a main event). Testing leveling off. Southern states & East beginning to get concerning again. 3/
Read 22 tweets
23 Oct
Those damn gold star families.
We do need to avoid the gymnasiums.
I have no money because I don’t want money.
Read 18 tweets
23 Oct
COVID Update October 22: Europe is having a second wave. How quickly can they bounce back?

Faster than a country that makes no effort: the US. 1/
Despite a lot of wishful thinking, COVID-19 has not gone away.

(Remember the “people have natural immunity” & “the virus died out”, & the “it will disappear” man?)

Sadly wishful fantasies don’t fight the virus. Scott Atlas’s strategy of ignoring the virus doesn’t work. Only we fight the virus. 3/
Read 24 tweets
21 Oct
COVID Update October 21:

A few nights ago I described how we need to do 2 things.

Account for the past
Fight for our future

I wrote about how we need to account for the past. But I haven’t had the words to focus on the future.

Now I think I do. Or will try. 1/
Thinking about the future turns out to be really hard when we are deep in a hole we must climb out from.

Writing about the past— the need for an accountability election— was easy. Here it is if you didn’t see & want to. 2/
But the future. The future. It feels so uncertain right now. It took me some time. And many many stupid sounding drafts. (Yes for the trolls, even stupider than this!) 3/
Read 28 tweets
19 Oct
BREAKING: Data for the month suggests for the first time COVID-19 has moved from a region by region crisis to a national one.

It needs a national solution.

More to follow shortly.
Here is a graph that says a lot. One thing you see is that cases are growing since April. Now that alone doesn’t tell us everything since testing is growing but it does tell us some things.

It’s from @NephronResearch
One thing to note is the number of states where cases are growing by 1000 cases/day.

April: 6
May/June: 6
July: 14 (19 peak)
August: 12
September: 12
October 15th: 25
Read 8 tweets
18 Oct
COVID Update October 18: It is time.

For the past.
And more importantly for the future.

Today: the past. Tomorrow I will write about the future. 1/
Trump has never faced accountability for his actions. His career in bankruptcy is a master class in how to behave when you don't care about others. Take their money, don't pay it back. Take their services, don't pay it back. 2/
Doing everything you can to avoid taxes including hiding money overseas, illegally using a foundation, writing off blackmail payments, trying to outlawyer the tax code. That's not "savvy." Its savage.

It is not patriotic. Yet, to date no accountability. 3/
Read 34 tweets

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