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Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
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23 Oct, 11 tweets, 5 min read
The president inherited strong job-growth trends, coasted off it, and tried to take credit for it.

His talking points do not match reality.
#NoFool
Same story with the unemployment rate.
This chicken may claim it's doing a wonderful job driving. It just took over the wheel when momentum was going the right way.

When circumstances require more than squawking & preening, crash.
The best thing we could do for the economy is crush the virus.

But our national response was & continues to be a disaster, ranked among the worst, as reported @USATODAY.

We have 5% of global population but 20% of global COVID deaths.
amp.usatoday.com/amp/5659696002
Our failed national COVID response cost tens of thousands of American their lives and millions of Americans their livelihoods.
brookings.edu/research/covid…
POTUS's economic fear mongering is not credible.

Investment analysis firm @MoodysAnalytics (nonpartisan) predicts the U.S. economy and jobs would grow faster if Biden + Ds win.
moodysanalytics.com/-/media/articl…
In "its 208-year history... world’s most prestigious medical journal has never supported or condemned a political candidate.

"Until now.

Admin "responded so poorly to the coronavirus pandemic that they 'have taken a crisis & turned it into a tragedy.'”
nytimes.com/2020/10/07/hea…
More than 1,000 current and former officers of an elite disease-fighting program at the CDC have signed an open letter expressing dismay at the nation’s public-health response to the Covid-19 pandemic @WSJ.
wsj.com/articles/more-…
Because the virus remains out of control, face-to-face interactions are riskier and economic activity is suffering.

The magnitude of economic losses are, in many ways, worse than during the Great Recession.
23.1 million Americans rely on unemployment insurance (UI) payments. UI = only abt half the $ you earned before since GOP stopped the $600 enhanced UI payment.

We have just 6.5 million job openings.

If every one was filled, that still 16.8 million relying on UI.

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More from @aaronsojourner

Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
23 Oct
The labor market is stalling. This is not a V-shaped jobs recovery.

22.5 million jobs were lost in March & April.

The U.S. added an average of 3.1 million jobs monthly during May+June+July.

In Aug+Sept, we averaged only 35% of that rate, 1.1 million monthly.
The rate of growth slowed in almost every state. The rate of change:

- accelerated in just 3 states,

- stayed constant in NM and SD (V-shaped),

- slowed by more than half in Wisconsin & 34 other states,

- turned negative in Hawaii & DC.

Extremes are small states, some noise.
Here's the trend in jobs over the last year in Wisconsin. This is not V-shaped. The rate of change slowed by half in Aug+Sept versus May+June+July.
Read 6 tweets
Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
20 Oct
New data out this morning on the number of jobs in each state in September.

How much has the number of jobs changed in each state since February, as a percent of February jobs?

Idaho is down 0.9% of February jobs.

The whole U.S. is down 7.0%.

Hawaii is down 18.9%. Image
For most states, the share of jobs lost since Feb 2020 exceeds their share lost during the Great Recession.

For states on the orange line, their share lost now is abt equal to their share lost during GR. Above the line, means a greater share now. Below line means smaller share. Image
Correction: now including Idaho. Image
Read 4 tweets
Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
8 Oct
America has a smaller economy and fewer jobs than when this administration started.

They inherited strong trends & tried to take credit for it. Then, when we need real leadership, he was not up to the job.
V-shaped reco| ___ery?
\/
This chicken may claim it is doing a wonderful job driving but it just took over the wheel when momentum was going the right direction.

When circumstances require more than squawking & preening, crash.
Read 19 tweets
Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
7 Oct
17.1 million American households are behind on their housing payment.

5.5 million are very likely or somewhat likely to leave their home due to eviction or foreclosure in the next two months.

This adjusts for item nonresponse @uscensusbureau #HouseholdPulseSurvey for 9/16-9/28.
15% of American renters (8.4 million households) are behind on rent.

Among them, 46% (3.9 m) report it very or somewhat likely that they will have to leave their home in the next 2 months due to eviction.
10% of American households with a home mortgage (8.7 million) are behind on their mortgage.

Among them, 19% (1.6 m) report it very or somewhat likely that they will leave their home due to foreclosure in the next two months.
Read 5 tweets
Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
24 Sep
1.45 million initial state + PUA unemployment insurance claims filed in week ending 9/19, similar to prior week.

This extends a terrible streak to 27 consecutive weeks each with more UI claims than any of prior 2,776 weeks, back to record's start in 1967.
washingtonpost.com/business/2020/…
The number of Americans continuing to use UI payments is reported at 26 million. A reporting issue in CA made this higher in prior weeks.

U.S. has 6.6 million job openings.

If every opening were filled, there would be 19.4 million Americans using UI.
To get a sense of weakness in that labor market, the share of Americans in their prime working years (age 25-54) who are now employed remains 5.2 percentage points below its February level.

This level is similar to its lowest level during and after the Great Recession.
Read 18 tweets
Aaron Sojourner Profile picture
23 Sep
Millions of Americans worried about their ability to pay for housing.

1 in 11 Americans with a mortgage and 1 in 4 renters report no confidence or slight confidence in their own ability to make their October housing payment.

Data @uscensusbureau #HouseholdPulseSurvey
Huge shares of renters lack confidence in ability to pay October rent in Southern states, NV, NJ, RI, TX, and WY.
A large share of American households with a mortgage lack confidence in ability to pay October housing payment in Southern states, Dakotas, IL, WV, SC, and NY.
Read 8 tweets

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