Thread by @aaronsojourner

The labor market is stalling. This is not a V-shaped jobs recovery.

22.5 million jobs were lost in March & April.

The U.S. added an average of 3.1 million jobs monthly during May+June+July.

In Aug+Sept, we averaged only 35% of that rate, 1.1 million monthly.

The rate of growth slowed in almost every state. The rate of change:

- accelerated in just 3 states,

- stayed constant in NM and SD (V-shaped),

- slowed by more than half in Wisconsin & 34 other states,

- turned negative in Hawaii & DC.

Extremes are small states, some noise.

Here's the trend in jobs over the last year in Wisconsin. This is not V-shaped. The rate of change slowed by half in Aug+Sept versus May+June+July.

Here's the trend in jobs over the last year in Florida.

This is stalled with lots of ground left to recover. The rate of change slowed to almost nothing in Aug+Sept.

How big are the remaining job losses?

We are still missing 10.8 million jobs compared to February in the whole U.S. in the latest data, that's -7% of jobs from February.

Here's the range of share of jobs remaining lost across states.

Most states are missing a larger share of jobs than they lost during the Great Recession (GR: Nov 2007-June 2009).

10% of Michigan jobs remain lost since February, about the same share as it lost during the GR.

Pennsylvania's loss now is +2X as large as its GR losses.