Thread by @ADavidHaleJoint

You haven't lived until you've bet an under on a Friday night between two AAC teams that are a combined 11-31 in the past 2 calendar years. Enjoy.

💸🤑🏧

🌟🌀🐂Tulsa/USF U51

💸🤑🏧

Week7️⃣: 4-1-1
2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣0️⃣: 23-15-2

B1G day ahead...

💸🤑🏧

🥃🏇🏀Kentucky -3.5
🖕🎾👀MTSU +4
🤠💻💡Texas -6.5 1H
🐍Okla -7
🦀🤷‍♂️Maryland +12
👙🍻Coastal -2.5
🐘🌞🌐Bama/Tenn U66

💸🤑🏧

Week🎱: 0-1
2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣0️⃣: 23-16-2

Let's get Week 9️⃣ started by assuming Maryland is awful...

🤑💸💰

☂️☔️🌧Minn -18.5

🤑💸💰

Week 🎱: 5-3
2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣0️⃣: 28-18-2

🧟‍♂️🎃👻spooky good picks for some Halloween football
all treats, no tricks!💀🍬🎃

🤑💸🏧

👠UNC -7.5
💇🏼‍♀️⛰Duke -10.5
🥔🔵Boise -7 1H
🧸Baylor +3
🦉♻️👋Temple-Tulane O58
🦅👀Iowa -2
📺🔫🕺Memphis +7
🏋️‍♂️🏹🎣A&M -14

🤑💸🏧

Wk9️⃣: 0-1
2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣0️⃣: 28-19-2

Last week stunk. Better days ahead.

🤑💸🏧

❓🐝👨‍🎓NC State +10.5
🔵🏟Boise St +4.5

🤑💸🏧

Wk9️⃣: 3-6
2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣0️⃣: 31-24-2

Feel good about these. Then again, felt good about Pitt this season, too...
Speaking of...

🤑💸💰

🍟🔛🥪Pitt +2
✂️👖Florida +3
🙍‍♂️🐈🎅🏼🚫Neb +4
👠UNC -12
🏋️‍♂️🏹🎣A&M -5.5 1H
🌲Stanford +8.5
🐻🐃UCLA/Colo o56.5
🍎🍍🥤🏃🏾‍♂️VT -16.5
🌈😴Hawaii -14.5

🤑💸💰

Week🔟: 1-1
2️⃣0️⃣🥈🅾️: 32-25-2

Stay hydrated, folks. We're on the Willie 🚂

🏧🤑💸

🚰🎒🤦‍♂️FAU -9.5

🏧🤑💸

Wk🔟: 6-5
2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣0️⃣: 37-29-2

Today we get to fade Rutgers and get points. 2020 is wild, man.

🏧💸🤑

👠UNC -12.5
😬🙏🍢🏆ND -11.5
🐻Baylor -1.5
🥃🍺Purdue +3
🚣‍♂️🌊🎄🇬🇧Wash -13.5
♨️💺Mich +6.5
🍑GaSt +17.5
🤒🙄🔊Ill +6
🙌🦃Mia/VT U68.5
🗳🤷‍♂️SoCar +13.5
🦆Oregon -6.5 1H

🏧💸🤑

Wk1️⃣1️⃣: 1-0
2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣0️⃣: 38-28-2

🪠🦤Apple released new emojis this week. Maybe that will turn my luck around.🪤🫒

🏧🎰💸

🤫👮‍♀️PennSt -1.5
🏳️🐍Mich -12.5
🍪UCLA +16.5
🏴‍☠️🧀🥩ECU/Temple O55.5
🎾👀Tenn +10.5
🙋‍♂️😤🗣UofSC +6
🐺Nevada +1.5
🎸GaSo +3.5
🌶🍛🧀🤷‍♀️Cin -4

🏧🎰💸

Wk1️⃣1️⃣: 5-8
2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣0️⃣: 42-36-2

❄️ice cold last 4 weeks (17-25) including some absolute 🤦‍♂️ bad beats in Wk12.

🏧🤑💸

🐈🐊UK-Fla U61
🐩💦Miss -9.5
🤴🎤Memphis -7 1H
🍪UCLA -10
🚫↖️Mich St +13.5
🗣👘🗞🔫Rutgers +11
🎀Ark St -7
🦖🍖Cuse +17.5
🧸Baylor -6

🏧🤑💸

Wk1️⃣2️⃣: 3-6
2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣0️⃣: 45-42-2

Celebrating mediocrity for another week of bets...

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📈⬅️🥳➡️Okie St -2
🌩👂Marshall -13 1H
🤐Akron -2.5
🦝🧢WVU +6.5
⚔️🛡SJSU -2.5
🚰🎒FAU +2.5
👮‍♀️👀🧗‍♂️📓👍Ore St +11.5
🐊🙋‍♂️UF-Tenn U62.5

🏧🤑💸

Wk1️⃣3️⃣: 5-4
2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣0️⃣: 50-46-2

You could take your 💵 & set it on 🔥 but these bets will serve the same purpose.

🏧🎰💸

🧤🍆USC -3
🥔Boise -9.5
👨‍⚖️👂🤷‍♂️Utah -2.5
🍗VT -2.5
🛁🏋️‍♂️🇺🇸Wazzu +1.5
🐉UAB -7
🐢⚔️UMd/Rutgers O58.5
🤴🏿☔️Minn +9.5
😬🍢FSU -2.5 1H
🌈Hawaii -10.5 1H

🏧🎰💸

LW: 4-4
2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣0️⃣: 54-50-2

🏆week picks

🤑🏧💰

🐃Buffalo -13.5
🥓🚚🥪Rutgers +6.5
☘️ND +10.5
💣⌚️Okla -6
💪✈️Army/AFA U39
🛣🦐Miss/LSU O74.5

🤑🏧💰

LW: 6-3
2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣0️⃣: 60-53-2

Last year I lost 11 of my last 16 🥣 picks and finished a woeful 18-23. This year’s 🎳 season figures to be much worse...

🏧🤑💸

🎡🏖🍹🤮Bowl: AppSt/UNT U65

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LW: 3-3
2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣0️⃣: 63-56-2 (53%)
LY🎳: 18-23

As we get ready to lose some more 💸 just remember your kids prob didn't deserve a nice 🎄 anyway.

🏧🤑💸

📸🥔Bowl: Nevada +2.5
🏠📝👴🏖Bowl: BYU -6

🏧🤑💸

🎳: 0-1
2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣0️⃣: 62-57-3

Both of these are more about fading CUSA...

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®️🛴🚛⚜️Bowl: GaSo -6.5
👴💰🚧☀️Bowl: Memphis -8

🏧🤑💸

🎳: 2-1
2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣0️⃣: 64-57-3

🤙Hawaii playing on 🎄Eve. A tradition unlike any other.

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🆕🇲🇽(➡️⭐️)Bowl: Hawaii +10

🏧🤑💸

🎳: 4-1
2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣0️⃣: 66-57-3

I liked Buffalo 🌶🍗🥵 a lot more when I got them at -4.5 last night.

🏧🤑💸

🌺🎅Bowl: Buffalo -6.5

🏧🤑💸

🎳: 5-1
2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣0️⃣: 67-57-3

6️⃣ straight💰so probably a good time to start fading me...

🏧🤑💸

🏓👨‍💼🥇🗣Bowl: ULL/UTSA U55.5
💲🌳Bowl: GaSt -3.5
🏡🏦💊Bowl: CCU -7

🏧🤑💸

🎳: 6-1
2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣0️⃣: 68-57-3

Snapped 🎱 game win streak. Alas, all good things must end.

Separately, my 🧀🔶 flavor power rankings:
1. buffalo 🐃🌶
2. White cheddar ⬜️🧀
3. Cheddar ranch 🧀👨‍🌾
4. Original 🚫🆕

🏧🤑💸

🧀🔶Bowl: Miami +1
⛽️🤠🔫Bowl: Texas -4.5 1H

🏧🤑💸

🎳: 8-2
2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣0️⃣: 70-58-3

Wonder what the Belk Bowl is doing today. Wonder if it misses us. I hope, somewhere, Belk Bowl and Meineke Car Care Bowl are running, hand in hand, through a lush meadow...

🏧🤑💸

⚪️🏺Bowl: WF +9.5
👌🗓💭Bowl: Okla/UF O67.5

🏧🤑💸

🎳: 9-3
2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣0️⃣: 71-59-3

🏧🤑💸

🛩💪⚓️Bowl: Miss St +1
🤲🗒🌵Bowl: Ball St +10
🚗🛒🗽Bowl: WVU -6.5

🏧🤑💸

🎳: 10-4
2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣0️⃣: 72-60-3

Well, it’s 2021, so technically we’re all 0-0 for the year. Hope it’s a profitable one from here on out...

🏧🤑💸

🐓🥪🍑Cincy +10
🏡🔀🍋Aub +4.5
🥀🤠Bama -19.5
🍭🍬Ohio St +7

🏧🤑💸

🎳: 12-5
2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣0️⃣: 74-61-3

*side note: I don’t care what they say. It’s V-R-B-O, not ver-bo.

SEC bets yesterday: 0-2
Non-SEC bets: 2-0
It just means more... Money to the bookies.

🐶 have covered 5 of last 6...

🏧🤑💸

💸🗡🐊Bowl: NC St +2.5
🌺🌰🇦🇺Bowl: Ole Miss/Indiana U67.5
🎮🎉🥳Bowl: Iowa St -5.5
🧢1️⃣🍊Bowl: A&M -8

🏧🤑💸

🎳: 14-7
2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣0️⃣: 76-63-3

Absolutely no business getting the 🍊 Bowl cover, but wrapping up a very profitable 🎳 season with a 4-0 day.

Double or nothing on the title game?

🏧🤑💸

🎳: 18-7 (72%)
2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣0️⃣: 80-63-3 (56%)

Last pick of the year. I’ve tried to find a good reason to be on the 🌰 but I just can’t do it.

🏧🤑💸

🌎🏆 Bama -6.5 1H 🐘🐀☠️

🏧🤑💸

🎳: 18-7 (72%)
2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣0️⃣: 80-63-3 (56%)

Yes, Bama was impressive. Big props to them. But let's not overlook an even more impressive performance... From me.

Another easy cover!!!

Hope y'all followed along. Consider it my personal stimmy check to you...

🎳 season: 19-7 (73%)
2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣0️⃣: 81-63-3 (56%)

I promised some win total bets this week, so get ready to make some 💰💰. (All totals per @DKSportsbook)

1st, an explainer: I don’t look at schedules or think much about rosters. I exclusively make these picks using a handful of stats. (1/x)

@DKSportsbook Guessing at W/L based on schedule or parsing rosters ends up being a bunch of circular logic for me. I overthink it all. Instead, I focus on stat anomalies that are unlikely to be repeated. In other words -- which teams benefited or were hurt by luck☘️ -- and go from there. (2/x)

@DKSportsbook What I look at most: Turnovers, field position, red zone, close games. Teams insanely good or bad in those areas tend to revert to the mean the next year. Compare that to the 🎰Vegas win total, and often there's room for profit. For 2019, I made 20 picks and went 14-5-1. (3/x)

@DKSportsbook An example: My heart says 🦅BC will be good this year. 2nd year coach who I like a lot. Surprisingly solid 2020 campaign. Lot of returning talent. Iffy on D, explosive O. O/U is 7 wins. I have to take the under. Why? (4/x)

@DKSportsbook From 2016-18, there were 21 teams that finished +.500 w/ positive TO margin & negative yardage differential. Only 2 improved the following year, 4 stayed same and 15 got worse. From 2018->19 all 5 went from >.500 to <.500. BC profiles a lot like 2019 🟥🐦Lville actually. (5/x)

@DKSportsbook Caveat: 2020 was a really weird year where a.) tons of variables were in play that won't be in 2021 (hopefully!) and b.) the sample sizes for were dramatically reduced in many cases. So, some of this data is probably less reliable than normal🤷. But we'll try anyway. (6/x)