π‘βοΈULL U9.5
πππ
Lock of the year. ULL was immensely lucky in 2020. They were lucky in TOs (+10). They were lucky in starting field position (+7% in %drives starting in +territory). They were lucky in close games (6-1 in games decided by a TD or less). Hammer the under.
πππ
Lock of the year. ULL was immensely lucky in 2020. They were lucky in TOs (+10). They were lucky in starting field position (+7% in %drives starting in +territory). They were lucky in close games (6-1 in games decided by a TD or less). Hammer the under.
πHawaii U6
ππ
10th biggest swing in PoT margin from 2019-20. Just 59% of drives in 2H were close or ahead. No other team < 60% won 5. 3-1 in close/late games. Same +TO/-yardage w/winning record profile as BC.
ππ
10th biggest swing in PoT margin from 2019-20. Just 59% of drives in 2H were close or ahead. No other team < 60% won 5. 3-1 in close/late games. Same +TO/-yardage w/winning record profile as BC.
π¦Penn St O9
π
PSU lost 3x when outgained opp. - 2x by 200+ yards! No team had a higher YoY shift in pts off TO margin (-111). Finished strong.
π£οΈπββοΈUTSA U8
πππ
Roadrunners were 4-0 in games decided by 3 points or less last year. Not buying that luck for another season.
π
PSU lost 3x when outgained opp. - 2x by 200+ yards! No team had a higher YoY shift in pts off TO margin (-111). Finished strong.
π£οΈπββοΈUTSA U8
πππ
Roadrunners were 4-0 in games decided by 3 points or less last year. Not buying that luck for another season.
π
Memphis U8
ππ
Just 71% of Memphis' 2H drives came when ahead or trailing by a TD or less. Only 3 teams worse finished +.500. Memphis was 7-3.
π»UCLA O7
ππ
Bruins have made slow but steady progress under Chip. Had some sketchy luck last year (QB injury, 1-4 in close games).
ππ
Just 71% of Memphis' 2H drives came when ahead or trailing by a TD or less. Only 3 teams worse finished +.500. Memphis was 7-3.
π»UCLA O7
ππ
Bruins have made slow but steady progress under Chip. Had some sketchy luck last year (QB injury, 1-4 in close games).
πͺCMU U6.5
πππ
Chips had a ridiculous + swing in points off turnover margin last year, going from -77 in 2019 to +26 in 2020 and still finished 3-3. The 103-pt swing was highest in CFB. Revert to the TO mean = .500 or worse.
πππ
Chips had a ridiculous + swing in points off turnover margin last year, going from -77 in 2019 to +26 in 2020 and still finished 3-3. The 103-pt swing was highest in CFB. Revert to the TO mean = .500 or worse.
πβTroy O7
πππ
Love this one. 76% of Troy's 2nd half drives in 2020 came with lead or w/in a TD -- but they lost 6 games. They were 0-4 in games decided by a TD or less (2 by a FG or less). Finished 110th in G2G TD% & RZ TD% but 53rd in %possible yards. Very unlucky.
πππ
Love this one. 76% of Troy's 2nd half drives in 2020 came with lead or w/in a TD -- but they lost 6 games. They were 0-4 in games decided by a TD or less (2 by a FG or less). Finished 110th in G2G TD% & RZ TD% but 53rd in %possible yards. Very unlucky.
πβUSC U8.5
πππ
Luckiest team in FBS last year. 60 pt swing in PoT margin from 2019 (5th highest). 3-1 when trailing in 4Q. More than 1/4 of offensive drives started in + territory while only 4% of D drives did.
πππ
Luckiest team in FBS last year. 60 pt swing in PoT margin from 2019 (5th highest). 3-1 when trailing in 4Q. More than 1/4 of offensive drives started in + territory while only 4% of D drives did.
π₯π¦Louisville O7
πππ
Book it. As lucky as Cards were in 2019, they were that unlucky in 2020. 1-6 in games that were w/in a TD in the 4Q. Went from +122 in PoT margin in 2019 to -22 in 2020. The real Lville is an 8+ win squad now.
πππ
Book it. As lucky as Cards were in 2019, they were that unlucky in 2020. 1-6 in games that were w/in a TD in the 4Q. Went from +122 in PoT margin in 2019 to -22 in 2020. The real Lville is an 8+ win squad now.
π€Akron U2.5
π
Yes, it's hard to take the under when the number is 2.5 but Akron was insanely lucky last year (-3 in PoT margin, a 74-pt swing from 2019) and still won just 1 game... vs lowly Bowling Green.
π
Yes, it's hard to take the under when the number is 2.5 but Akron was insanely lucky last year (-3 in PoT margin, a 74-pt swing from 2019) and still won just 1 game... vs lowly Bowling Green.
π¦Oregon O9
ππ
Oregon had 2nd-worst TO luck. 87% of 2H drives were close or ahead, but lost 3 games. Was 9th in offensive successful play rate despite QB issues.
πΈGaSo O4.5
π
Lost 5 gms LY when tied or ahead in 4Q. Offensive system creates close games & they had awful luck.
ππ
Oregon had 2nd-worst TO luck. 87% of 2H drives were close or ahead, but lost 3 games. Was 9th in offensive successful play rate despite QB issues.
πΈGaSo O4.5
π
Lost 5 gms LY when tied or ahead in 4Q. Offensive system creates close games & they had awful luck.
πSyracuse O3
ππ
It's hard to even judge last year's team, which was a total mess from Day 1 due to COVID. They were 0-4 in close/late games. They cycled thru QBs. Tons of opt outs. A historically bad RZ & G2G offense. They're not good, but they can win 4.
ππ
It's hard to even judge last year's team, which was a total mess from Day 1 due to COVID. They were 0-4 in close/late games. They cycled thru QBs. Tons of opt outs. A historically bad RZ & G2G offense. They're not good, but they can win 4.
β°οΈApp St O9
ππ
Coastal & ULL both had great luck last year. App did not. Coaching turnover hurt but so did the 4th-worst PoT margin shift in FBS and a bad RZTD% (including 3 RZ turnovers). Mountaineers back to being class of Sun Belt.
ππ
Coastal & ULL both had great luck last year. App did not. Coaching turnover hurt but so did the 4th-worst PoT margin shift in FBS and a bad RZTD% (including 3 RZ turnovers). Mountaineers back to being class of Sun Belt.
πCoastal U10
πππ
That's a big number for a program that played out of its mind last season. Chants were 5-1 in close/late games & saw a 49-point swing in PoT margin. Great 2020 year. Hard to follow that up though.
πππ
That's a big number for a program that played out of its mind last season. Chants were 5-1 in close/late games & saw a 49-point swing in PoT margin. Great 2020 year. Hard to follow that up though.
βοΈNotre Dame O9
π
As good as ND was last year, the Irish actually UNDER performed. 5th-worst PoT swing, an offense that underperformed its EPA/drive by a good bit and had below avg field position luck given what a strong defense the Irish had.
π
As good as ND was last year, the Irish actually UNDER performed. 5th-worst PoT swing, an offense that underperformed its EPA/drive by a good bit and had below avg field position luck given what a strong defense the Irish had.
π₯βRutgers U4
π
Would love for this to creep up to 4.5 as people decide Rutgers is improved. They might be, but also finished 115th in yardage differential last year & were the 2nd luckiest in PoT margin. Feels like a push but I'll risk it.
π
Would love for this to creep up to 4.5 as people decide Rutgers is improved. They might be, but also finished 115th in yardage differential last year & were the 2nd luckiest in PoT margin. Feels like a push but I'll risk it.
πͺΆπIowa U8.5
ππ
Weak schedule last year + a lot of TO luck negated a negative offensive EPA/drive. Love Goodson. Not sure I'm sold on a 9-win team though.
ππ
Weak schedule last year + a lot of TO luck negated a negative offensive EPA/drive. Love Goodson. Not sure I'm sold on a 9-win team though.
So thatβs 20 picks for you rated π to πππ. Do with them what you will.
Others I liked but didnβt ultimately settle on:
Wash O9
OregSt O4.5
MichSt O4.5
Mizz U7
SJSU U7.5
OkSt U7.5
Ariz O2.5
Boise U9
BallSt U8
AFA O6.5
Rice O5.5
TxSt O4.5
Pitt U7
Others I liked but didnβt ultimately settle on:
Wash O9
OregSt O4.5
MichSt O4.5
Mizz U7
SJSU U7.5
OkSt U7.5
Ariz O2.5
Boise U9
BallSt U8
AFA O6.5
Rice O5.5
TxSt O4.5
Pitt U7
Will perhaps revisit this closer to the season, but the πππ picks are probably worth investing in today.
Plus, gambling on an total today means you wonβt miss the $ when you lose it in December, while if you win, itβs a pleasant surprise.
Plus, gambling on an total today means you wonβt miss the $ when you lose it in December, while if you win, itβs a pleasant surprise.
β’ β’ β’
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
γ
