😑⚜️ULL U9.5
Lock of the year. ULL was immensely lucky in 2020. They were lucky in TOs (+10). They were lucky in starting field position (+7% in %drives starting in +territory). They were lucky in close games (6-1 in games decided by a TD or less). Hammer the under.
🌈Hawaii U6
10th biggest swing in PoT margin from 2019-20. Just 59% of drives in 2H were close or ahead. No other team < 60% won 5. 3-1 in close/late games. Same +TO/-yardage w/winning record profile as BC.
🦁Penn St O9
PSU lost 3x when outgained opp. - 2x by 200+ yards! No team had a higher YoY shift in pts off TO margin (-111). Finished strong.

πŸ›£οΈπŸƒβ€β™‚οΈUTSA U8
Roadrunners were 4-0 in games decided by 3 points or less last year. Not buying that luck for another season.
πŸ…Memphis U8
Just 71% of Memphis' 2H drives came when ahead or trailing by a TD or less. Only 3 teams worse finished +.500. Memphis was 7-3.

Bruins have made slow but steady progress under Chip. Had some sketchy luck last year (QB injury, 1-4 in close games).
πŸͺCMU U6.5
Chips had a ridiculous + swing in points off turnover margin last year, going from -77 in 2019 to +26 in 2020 and still finished 3-3. The 103-pt swing was highest in CFB. Revert to the TO mean = .500 or worse.
πŸ†β˜”Troy O7
Love this one. 76% of Troy's 2nd half drives in 2020 came with lead or w/in a TD -- but they lost 6 games. They were 0-4 in games decided by a TD or less (2 by a FG or less). Finished 110th in G2G TD% & RZ TD% but 53rd in %possible yards. Very unlucky.
πŸ†β˜”USC U8.5
Luckiest team in FBS last year. 60 pt swing in PoT margin from 2019 (5th highest). 3-1 when trailing in 4Q. More than 1/4 of offensive drives started in + territory while only 4% of D drives did.
πŸŸ₯🐦Louisville O7
Book it. As lucky as Cards were in 2019, they were that unlucky in 2020. 1-6 in games that were w/in a TD in the 4Q. Went from +122 in PoT margin in 2019 to -22 in 2020. The real Lville is an 8+ win squad now.
🀐Akron U2.5
Yes, it's hard to take the under when the number is 2.5 but Akron was insanely lucky last year (-3 in PoT margin, a 74-pt swing from 2019) and still won just 1 game... vs lowly Bowling Green.
πŸ¦†Oregon O9
Oregon had 2nd-worst TO luck. 87% of 2H drives were close or ahead, but lost 3 games. Was 9th in offensive successful play rate despite QB issues.

🎸GaSo O4.5
Lost 5 gms LY when tied or ahead in 4Q. Offensive system creates close games & they had awful luck.
🍊Syracuse O3
It's hard to even judge last year's team, which was a total mess from Day 1 due to COVID. They were 0-4 in close/late games. They cycled thru QBs. Tons of opt outs. A historically bad RZ & G2G offense. They're not good, but they can win 4.
⛰️App St O9
Coastal & ULL both had great luck last year. App did not. Coaching turnover hurt but so did the 4th-worst PoT margin shift in FBS and a bad RZTD% (including 3 RZ turnovers). Mountaineers back to being class of Sun Belt.
😎Coastal U10
That's a big number for a program that played out of its mind last season. Chants were 5-1 in close/late games & saw a 49-point swing in PoT margin. Great 2020 year. Hard to follow that up though.
☘️Notre Dame O9
As good as ND was last year, the Irish actually UNDER performed. 5th-worst PoT swing, an offense that underperformed its EPA/drive by a good bit and had below avg field position luck given what a strong defense the Irish had.
πŸŸ₯β™žRutgers U4
Would love for this to creep up to 4.5 as people decide Rutgers is improved. They might be, but also finished 115th in yardage differential last year & were the 2nd luckiest in PoT margin. Feels like a push but I'll risk it.
πŸͺΆπŸ‘€Iowa U8.5
Weak schedule last year + a lot of TO luck negated a negative offensive EPA/drive. Love Goodson. Not sure I'm sold on a 9-win team though.
So that’s 20 picks for you rated πŸ”’ to πŸ”’πŸ”’πŸ”’. Do with them what you will.

Others I liked but didn’t ultimately settle on:
Wash O9
OregSt O4.5
MichSt O4.5
Mizz U7
OkSt U7.5
Ariz O2.5
Boise U9
BallSt U8
AFA O6.5
Rice O5.5
TxSt O4.5
Pitt U7
Will perhaps revisit this closer to the season, but the πŸ”’πŸ”’πŸ”’ picks are probably worth investing in today.

Plus, gambling on an total today means you won’t miss the $ when you lose it in December, while if you win, it’s a pleasant surprise.

β€’ β€’ β€’

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More from @ADavidHaleJoint

28 Dec 20
The Ohio State QB history is so perplexing. Since 1980, they’ve had 20 different QBs lead the team in passing & list includes some elite college guys, but the only one to start more than 5 games and finish with a winning record in the NFL is… Mike Tomczak, who went undrafted.
Meanwhile, of those 20 QBs, 13 were drafted, but just two in the first round β€” two of the all-time busts.

Art Schlicter & Dwayne Haskins.

Schlicter, 0-8 as an NFL starter.
Haskins, 3-9.
Cardale Jones won a national title. Troy Smith a Heisman. JT Barrett, Braxton Miller, Terrelle Pryor… all terrific college QBs. They combined for 18 NFL starts.
Read 5 tweets
19 Nov 20
Me and @aadelsonESPN spent 4 months talking to more than 4 dozen people for an autopsy on FSU's fall from dominance. I hope you'll read the story. But wanted to share a little more insight here, too. A quick πŸ§΅β€¦ espn.com/college-footba…
@aadelsonESPN First, this story is unique to FSU because Tallahassee is a unique place & the Seminoles are a unique brand. But many of the lessons of FSU's downturn are evident in what's happening at Texas, Michigan, Nebraska and elsewhere. Making a CFB program work at an elite level is HARD.
@aadelsonESPN The key to success is two-fold: You have to have the right people win the right roles, and all those people have to be pulling in the same direction. That sounds simple but it's not. Think of the motivations for each power player in FSU's story...
Read 15 tweets
23 Oct 20
You haven't lived until you've bet an under on a Friday night between two AAC teams that are a combined 11-31 in the past 2 calendar years. Enjoy.


πŸŒŸπŸŒ€πŸ‚Tulsa/USF U51


Week7️⃣: 4-1-1
2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣0️⃣: 23-15-2
B1G day ahead...


πŸ₯ƒπŸ‡πŸ€Kentucky -3.5
πŸ–•πŸŽΎπŸ‘€MTSU +4
πŸ€ πŸ’»πŸ’‘Texas -6.5 1H
🐍Okla -7
πŸ¦€πŸ€·β€β™‚οΈMaryland +12
πŸ‘™πŸ»Coastal -2.5
🐘🌞🌐Bama/Tenn U66


Week🎱: 0-1
2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣0️⃣: 23-16-2
Let's get Week 9️⃣ started by assuming Maryland is awful...


β˜‚οΈβ˜”οΈπŸŒ§Minn -18.5


Week 🎱: 5-3
2️⃣0️⃣2️⃣0️⃣: 28-18-2
Read 33 tweets
16 Oct 20
Hi, Coronabro here. Let's talk a bit about how things are going with college football and the virus. A thread...
With the Saban news & another round of game postponements, it's getting tougher and tougher to suggest this is all going well. But is it going badly? Was playing a bad idea? It's hard to say because we have no established metric for success. That's by design.
But lets start with Saban. Could he coach on Saturday? It's funny that this was not a question when Mike Norvell had to sit out, but here's what @CFBHeather wrote yesterday.
Read 35 tweets
15 Oct 20
Highest % explosive plays (vs FBS, min 2 games)

1 Bama, 21.65%
2 UNC, 18.91%
3 Miss, 18.61%
4 UF, 18.03%
5 Clemson, 17.92%
6 BYU, 17.89%
7 VT, 17.14%
13 GT, 14.63%
36 Okla, 12.4%
28 UGA, 12.13%
42 Pitt, 11.84%
66 UVA, 8.56%
68 Cuse, 7.66%
72 Cincy, 6.43%
Lowest % explosive allowed
1 Marshall, 5.15%
2 Baylor, 6.37%
3 UGA, 6.77%
4 Army, 7.45%
5 Miss St, 7.46%
6 BYU, 7.52%
8 UNC, 7.52%
9 Clemson, 9.18%
10 Arkansas, 9.88%
15 Pitt, 10.42%
25 Miami, 11.73%
48 FSU, 13.27%
50 Aub, 13.51%
65 Lville, 16.3%
71 Wake, 20%
72 Miss, 21.92%
Net explosive play rate
1 UNC, 10.46%
2 BYU, 10.37%
3 Bama, 9.79%
4 Clemson, 8.74%
5 Marshall, 6.88%
6 ULL, 6.77%
7 UF, 6.12%
8 UGA, 5.36%
17 ND, 3.32%
19 NCSU, 1.96%
20 Miami, 1.94%
31 VT, 1.09%
50 A&M, -2.07%
54 FSU, -3.01%
67 UVA, -6.32%
71 Navy, -9.5%
72 Wake, -11.08%
Read 4 tweets
14 Aug 20
Spoke with Miami U president Julio Frenk today. He said Miami has had zero positive tests in last 3 rounds of testing. Some other tidbits... (thread...)
Frenk is former Minister of Health in Mexico. On the current situation: "I've had a long career in making decisions and this is the toughest because of all the unknowns we still have and how dynamically this is evolving."
On the future of the season: "I don't think we've made any final decisions. ... We're aware that the pandemic is still a huge and very serious threat. If we see things changing, we're ready to change and be adaptive. We're not locked into a rigid decision making frame."
Read 14 tweets

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