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Jens Nordvig Profile picture
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24 Oct, 7 tweets, 3 min read
The WSJ has a good overview of the record number of US COVID cases recorded in the latest daily data. They discuss the various factors contributing. But they do not mention weather/temperature. I think that is a mistake... @JenCalfas @bysarahkrouse

wsj.com/articles/coron…
But there is a relationship developing between temperature and transmission rates. Colder areas (states) are seeing more transmission. [R is higher]
This relationship is not always there, as it is non-linear (only kicks in when temperature is below a certain point). But it is there globally too...

[discussed in this THREAD]

There are are a number of academic papers that 'document' the linkages

Here is one, based on seasonality of other coronaviruses (not SARS-COV-2)

science.sciencemag.org/content/368/64…
Here is another one, that studies how SARS-COV-2 is able to 'survive' in different temperature settings (without a host)

thelancet.com/journals/lanmi…
The US autumn normally comes after the European one (Indian summer is more a US thing, than a European thing). Hence, the aggressive growth in Europe recently, is perhaps a warning sign that the US has further challenges ahead, as temperature drops further.
I will leave it at that. This is not over, unfortunately. END.

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More from @jnordvig

Jens Nordvig Profile picture
23 Oct
There is a big debate about the European 2nd wave, and whether it is serious or not. And it is surely hard to look at cases alone, since the testing quantity is totally different. I think looking at the dynamic CFRs is very informative....

= mini-THREAD
The table here shows Case Fatality Rates over time for several European countries, using recent deaths vs lagged cases. Image
It shows that you cannot really talk about severity in a uniform sense.

Some countries, such as France, Finland, Sweden, Norway an Denmark have stable an very low fatality rates (<1%) even with cases ticking up.
Read 9 tweets
Jens Nordvig Profile picture
18 Oct
I will do what everybody knows is very dangerous on twitter: comment on Sweden...

Cases have accelerated sharply over the last few weeks, from 200/day to 700/day (could have broader implications, with weather possibly a key variable = THREAD).
I am not trying to be alarmist, very few people seem to be getting seriously ill, as evidenced by low ICU admissions (although there is a slight uptick, and obviously lags at play)
But it raises the question. WHY? (are cases spiking)

Sweden has been 'open' for a while (that is the reason everybody is so focused on Sweden's alternative model)

Relatedly, mobility indicators have been pretty stable over the last few months.
Read 7 tweets
Jens Nordvig Profile picture
10 Oct
I started using twitter in earnest this year, and today I reached 10K followers. I do not know all of you personally, but I do know many of you professionally, and I really respect your views/input/content etc. Some observations on twitter in general (=THREAD)
I used to be skeptical of twitter. In part because I wanted to keep research content for my clients only, and because some of the stuff I look at is very niche. But then came the COVID shock, and suddenly everybody was interested & there was a lot of new/important data to crunch
The COVID shock showed the power of data, to a huge audience. I had to express my views in public, especially back in Q1, when there were so many basic misunderstandings.
Read 12 tweets
Jens Nordvig Profile picture
5 Oct
Lots of focus on Nov 3, and how the world may change after that day. But what we do know is that WFH, or at least a hybrid model, will be with us well beyond the election day. So we do need to plan… (= THREAD)
As I mentioned in previous thread, the initial excitement about wfh being possible, and in some narrow areas even an advantage, is giving way to a form of fatigue, reduced motivation, and a test to social networking / teamwork structures, over time.

Hence, we have been thinking hard about what can be done (in the context of managing @ExanteData) to ‘stay sane’ and avoid the most obvious pitfalls of working from home in the longer-run. Three main points on this....
Read 16 tweets
Jens Nordvig Profile picture
1 Oct
The most important chart of 2020 continues to evolve. We had the incredible situation that incomes spiked in a depression, because government transfers were so big. Now that transfers are declining, incomes are coming down, but spending is still on an uptrend via past savings. Image
This is why the fiscal stimulus debate remains the hottest issue of the day, as well as more strategically. The cut in Federal unemployment subsidies are feeding directly into this. So that piece is key, although maybe the aid for states is what the negotiation is more focused on
2020 is not like any other year. The aggressiveness of fiscal policy, in the US and globally, is different. And the interplay between fiscal policy & QE is also different. "FisQEl Policy", if you will... (as opposed to the pure asset swap QE of the 2008-2014 period).@TheStalwart
Read 4 tweets
Jens Nordvig Profile picture
10 Sep
Just did @BloombergTV with @CarolineHydeTV, @romainebostick and @TheStalwart. Main discussion was about the recovery, and whether it is in question

My main point...watch two engines of recovery...
The recovery, since April-May, has had two engines:
First, the gradual reopening, in the US (with some setbacks along the way) and globally.
Second, the roll-out of big fiscal stimulus (in the US, and more broadly)
We have to watch these two engines. The low fatality rates and the greater appreciation for the importance of superspreading events and mask use (and aversion to big 2nd round lockdowns), means that big 2nd round lockdowns are unlikely, unless hospitalizations/death really move.
Read 6 tweets

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