Alex Profile picture
25 Oct, 4 tweets, 1 min read
When it comes to COVID, you will notice news now focus only on the skyrocketing cases, making no mention of number of deaths or rock bottom fatality rates.

The most likely explanation for this is simple: journalists are more interested in clicks than in actually informing.
Cognitive biases play a big role

-Availability bias: helps people believe what they say often

-Confirmation bias: once you believe in something, interpret data in a way that confirms the belief

-Anchoring bias: interpret data using information acquired first as reference point
Basically, when the somewhat unintelligent learn about something and they talk about it repeatedly, they are likely to believe in that forever, even if new information eventually proves their belief wrong.
Some examples:

- those who believe the virus is a hoax
- those not in a high-risk group who are afraid of the virus
- religious people who believe Adam & Eve existed
- doomsayers
- stock to flow believers
- the ripple army

Stupidity is rampant

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More from @classicmacro

24 Oct
J.P.Morgan has been bullish on bitcoin for a while, which is encouraging and should help drive flows. However, their analysis remains mediocre. The underlying driver for all three stocks, gold and bitcoin moving in the same direction is not "Millennials" but negative real yields. Image
Beyond daily correlations, since Mar/2020, bitcoin has also often traded in line with stocks & gold on an intraday basis, reacting to monetary policy news in real time for example. That had *never* happened before. That is driven by asset managers & hedge funds, not Millenials. Image
Millenials have always bought bitcoin. What changed in 2020 is macro traders jumping onboard and seeing bitcoin as an inflation hedge. And by acting accordingly, turned it into one. This was IMO hands down the single most important event of 2020 👇

Read 5 tweets
22 Oct
Nassim Taleb once said "almost all bitcoiners are total idiots. That is hyperbole. It would more accurate to say "many bitcoiners are total idiots". Many people have demonstrated S2F is nonsense that wouldn't pass an undergrad econometrics test. The author is full of sh*t.
That model will dominate the public narrative forever, even though anyone with a decent understanding of econometrics knows it is garbage.

Model was supposed to hit 35K by end of 2021. But "it's on track". It's open ended, so can always push the ball if wrong.
Why do I talk about S2F if it is such nonsense?

Because it is the second most popular narrative in crypto, it invades my feed and chats on a daily basis (people share it with me and ask me about it) and because I can't stand larpers and scammers.

Read 5 tweets
22 Oct
Paypal news pushed $BTC six months ahead.

I was thinking 13K by year end and 15K in H1'21, now 15K by year end and 20K in H1'21.

It is a very big deal.

The other three coins will be $ETH, $BCH and $LTC, so should forget about other alts for now.
Paypal demand hasn't even kicked-in yet, as crypto buying is not yet enabled.

What we saw prior to the news was simple front-running.

Paypal did not buy any bitcoin (I thought it might be doing so, following Square's steps, though that was not the case).
Between $ETH, $BCH and $LTC, $ETH could be somewhat dragged down by DeFi, while $BCH has an upcoming fork around mid-November. I bought some $BCH today for the first time in 2020, and plan to be trading all three.
Read 6 tweets
21 Oct
1/ A deeper look at what happens when the Bitcoin - Ethereum correlation breaks down.

Looking at the 20 day correlation of returns, since 2018 correlation only broke down twice during a bitcoin upmove.

In May/2019, and now.
2/ Back in 2019, decorrelation started in early April, which shows in the correlation plot with a 20 day lag.

A major $ETHBTC correction (lower) ensued.
3/ This plot shows the 10 day cummulative $ETH forward returns following every time since 2018 where the 5 day correlations of returns fell below 0.5. As it just happened.

What can you see there?

Nothing, there is no clear pattern, returns are evenly distributed.
Read 6 tweets
20 Oct
$BTC price action has been very strong and orderly, against a backdrop of negative funding for *all* perpetuals' open interest, which speaks of a spot driven market. No interest in fading this move. Would need to see a massive spike before hedging any longs, maybe above 13K.
Today's BTC-ETH divergence, with $BTC up and $ETH down, has been crypto's talk of the day. Some attribute it to Powell's CBDC talk, though I think it is mostly related to Square inspired flows.
The USD has been taking a big hit in the last two days in response to central bankers' statements. But the dollar does not impact $BTC and $ETH assymetrically. BTC-DXY and ETH-DXY correlations have been similar since April, with ETH's correlation in fact slightly stronger.
Read 4 tweets
18 Oct
"At present, there is no direct evidence on the effectiveness of universal masking of healthy people in the community to prevent infection with respiratory viruses, including COVID-19." - World Heatlh Organizarion, June 2020

~source: apps.who.int/iris/bitstream… Image
"At the present time, the widespread use of masks by healthy people in the community setting is not yet supported by high quality or direct scientific evidence and there are potential benefits and harms to consider." - World Heatlh Organizarion, June 2020

(same source)
Potential harms/disadvantages of mask wearing by healthy people in the general public, according to the World Health Organization 👇 Image
Read 7 tweets

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