I tweet a lot of charts showing how $TSLA has grown delivery volume and revenue dollars exponentially over the years, but here's a different way of slicing the data completely:
How does Tesla's average dollar of revenue break down by source? How does that change over time?
As you can see, Leasing, Energy, and Services & Other have had a hard time keeping up with the explosive growth in Automotive Sales and thus Regulatory Credit sales.
You may now be wondering how Tesla *spends* its average dollar of revenue. I was wondering the same thing...
When Tesla spent more than the whole dollar, it posted Non-GAAP losses; when it spent less than the whole dollar, it posed Non-GAAP profits.
Revenue growth levers against fixed costs.
You’ll occasionally see smartish Tesla short sellers complain that Tesla is spending less on R&D or capital spending as a % of revenue than they used to. 👀
Well, yeah. That’s kind of the point of selling stuff to more people... called “economies of scale”... look into it.😂🤣
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
Here is my latest $TSLA forecast, updated with this morning's delivery report.
I cannot underscore enough: EVs are the future of transportation and- so far- only Tesla has figured out how to make them profitably.
Tesla's Adjusted EBITDA (profit) will rise as quarterly deliveries increase.
Here's how Tesla S3XY deliveries have grown and will continue to grow. Since Tesla no longer reports deliveries of S separately from X or 3 separately from Y, I have to make educated guesses in my forecast model.
I'd wager Steve's more or less right about "Project Roadrunner" (Tesla's ground-up rethink of how to make batteries better):
@elonmusk 's favorite airplane, the A-12 Archangel, carried zero defensive countermeasures because it flew so high, so fast, nothing could shoot it down.
That aircraft later developed into the SR-71 Blackbird, but the original designer, Clarence "Kelly" Johnson at Lockheed's Skunkworks, called it the A-12... so that's what Elon calls it.
He also says, "the best process is no process; the best part is no part."
The SR-71 Blackbird‘s strategy for evading danger was the same as mine is in my Tesla: punch it and watch the threat disappear in the rearview mirror.
@elonmusk will be footing the bill, Charley, as he has since the beginning.
If Elon succeeds in growing $TSLA by >10x for all shareholders as of the date he agreed to this compensation package, he will earn the right to pay Tesla $7.1B cash to purchase these stock options.
/1
Under GAAP guidelines (using Black-Scholes), Tesla will expense a maximum of $2.283 billion against the income statement over the 10 years covered by the agreement which began March 21, 2018.
$0.7B has already hit as Elon made progress towards achieving the plan’s milestones.
/2
If it costs shareholders anything, it’s a maximum of:
12% dilution of a company whose market cap he will have grown enormously
+$2.283 billion over 10 years in imaginary SBC GAAP expense on the P&L
... paired with $7.1B in real cash Elon will pay Tesla for his shares.
/3
“It’s actually a radical redesign of the core technology of building a car. And some of this, when I do Battery Day later in September, I’ll be talking about what we are going to be doing here in Berlin.”
- @elonmusk
$TSLA
(full transcript below)
The audio quality was poor in places, so I took down a transcript myself for the benefit of those who can’t hear well or for whom English is not their first language.