Horgan's gamble in BC paid off. Anyone who thinks Ford isn't gaming out the same move just isn't paying attention. I know many will scream "false equivalent!" but they really are in similar positions - no matter that I like one and dislike the other. #cdnpoli #onpoli #bcpoli 1/4
Horgan's coalition was stable. He created a narrative to justify his election call. All politicians do that. Ford has a majority so he'd have to work harder. But recent divisions in his own caucus might offer a path, or some other invented excuse. #cdnpoli #onpoli #bcpoli 2/4
Both Horgan and Ford have the same strong incentive - current popularity but an uncertain future. I don't like admitting Ford is still personally popular, but he is. The longer Covid drags on, the more he'll lose it. He may prefer his chances now. #cdnpoli #onpoli #bcpoli 3/4
Too many folks are sure voters want to turf Ford, and so are blind to this danger. Any justification leading to an election must immediately be called out as PC manipulation. They tried hanging Horgan's election on him too. They were too late. #cdnpoli #onpoli #bcpoli 4/4

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More from @JeffRybak

28 Oct
Sam Oosterhoff is a Conservative MPP in Ontario. He's 23 now, was first elected at 19. He's done some questionable things lately and is much in the news. People have asked if it's fair to say it's because he's young, or just because he's an evangelical conservative. #onpoli 1/10
First, let me say it's entirely possible to be a thoughtful, conservative person of faith and occupy public office with dignity. I may not agree with a person like that, but we're all in Canadian society together and need to coexist. Government is how we do that. #onpoli 2/10
I do think it's ridiculous to elect a teenager to Parliament, whether a right-wing or a left-wing teen. Folks have said teens can show great leadership and potential. True. They're at the forefront of climate change issues, for one. But public office demands more. #onpoli 3/10
Read 10 tweets
27 Oct
Joey Moss has died. In his honor and memory I'd like to make an uncomfortable confession. I belong to a generation of kids, now all in our 40's, for whom "Gretzky's child" was a devastating and memorable insult. I both used it, and was a target of it. 1/6
cbc.ca/news/canada/ed…
This is an 80's thing that only makes sense to a specific generation. Wayne Gretzky took an interest in children with special needs, and publicly campaigned in their support. Joey Moss was central to that. But dumb kids like me could turn the whole thing into a joke. 2/6
"Gretzky's child" became just one more slang term to make fun of someone different. We weren't mocking anyone who actually had special needs, let's be clear. But by turning it into an insult meant to imply someone else did, I suppose we really were. 3/6
Read 6 tweets
21 Oct
I'm saddened many people debating WE and Trudeau's position seem not to understand what a "conflict of interest" is, and how someone might innocently, through bad judgment, make a mistake with one. I include many Liberals not getting it, btw. Here's a quick reminder. #cdnpoli 1/8
Any time someone has a personal engagement with an issue or organization that even could influence their judgment, it's a conflict. It should be identified, and that person's judgment ideally removed from decision-making on the issue. Simply as a precaution. #cdnpoli 2/8
Trudeau's family history with WE raises the possibility his judgment might be swayed. That possibility alone is a conflict. That it wasn't properly identified and declared is an error of judgment. Pretending otherwise is wrong. And that's where this all started. #cdnpoli 3/8
Read 8 tweets
20 Oct
Recently, I've begun to question some Covid-related restrictions in Ontario. That's put me at odds with some people I usually agree with, and on-side with some folks I generally don't agree with. I'm starting to see a pattern and I'd like to explain my view. #onpoli 1/12
First, I am not an anti-masker or someone who wants to pursue herd immunity through mass fatalities. That's just nuts. I've supported restrictions all along and still do. I firmly believe we're all in this together - or should be. That's where I'm coming from. #onpoli 2/12
That said, there has always been a cost to lock-downs. There's an economic cost and a human cost. And even the economic cost is a human cost in some ways, because that's the same economy that pays for social program, benefits, etc. We can't kill it entirely. #onpoli 3/12
Read 12 tweets
10 Oct
Recently, I said it was wrong to judge any political party by their worst actors, and by that standard we are all terrible. One excellent reply was that we should judge every political party by how they respond to their worst actors. I'd like to expand on that. #cdnpoli 1/12
In its best incarnation, the NDP and the broad left promote fairness, equality, and inclusion. I respect their core values immensely. They lose me when they allow the impractical fringes of their party to dominate - the folks who simply can't live in the real world. #cdnpoli 2/12
The left absolutely has to call out its crazies more often - the ones who say "you're with us on every issue or else you represent everything that's wrong with the world." That attitude gets in the way of so much good, and so many things we could otherwise agree on. #cdnpoli 3/12
Read 12 tweets
23 Sep
I've been asked about electoral reform. I absolutely support reform. For those unfamiliar with the issue, the way we elect our Members of Parliament (provincially and federally) is badly skewed. It creates false majorities not at all reflective of the popular vote. #cdnpoli 1/22
There are, of course, different ways the system could change. Lots of them. One of the reasons reform is so hard is that folks who advocate moving to X end up fighting with those who want Y, or Z, even though all of them agree what we have now is bad. #cdnpoli 2/22
I won't push for a specific system here. Best thing I ever heard on this topic is that any system to achieve a more proportional outcome is better than what we have, and it would be easier to move from that to anything else later on. So let's at least do something. #cdnpoli 3/22
Read 23 tweets

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