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25 Oct, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Youth vote update 10/25. 18-29 y/o early vote share % increase from 2016, via @TargetSmart:

US +27
AZ +19
FL +14
GA +22
IA +0
MI +121
MN +36
NC +15
NV +11
OH +16
PA -42
TX +40
WI +15

In the battlegrounds, there are 6 states where Gen Z and Millennials (18-39) are over 20% of the early vote:

TX 24.5%
MN 24%
NC 22.9%
GA 21.9%
NV 20.7%
PA 20.6%

docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
And in the new @dallasnews poll, which has Biden up 48-45 in Texas, his lead is being driven by an incredible performance with young people:

Another cut on the remarkable Texas youth early vote data so far:

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More from @SimonWDC

Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
23 Oct
Lots of data now to suggest youth vote highly motivated this election.

Using @TargetSmart's TargetEarly data 18-29 y/o share of early vote up 31% from 2016, a remarkable thing.

Youth much bigger slice of a much larger early vote pie. Not sure many saw that coming. (Thread)
Increase in 18-29 year old share of early vote in select states:

MI - 120%
TX - 55%
MN - 37%
FL - 35%
WI - 31%
GA - 21%
AZ - 19%
NC - 16%
OH - 15%
NV - 13%
At this point 4 years ago 1.2m 18-29 year olds had voted.

As of last night 3.9m 18-29 year olds had voted.

See this new study from @CivicYouth on the strong youth early vote - lots of good data. circle.tufts.edu/latest-researc…
Read 5 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
22 Oct
The daily struggle inside the Administration to prevent Trump's fantasy world view from doing too much harm to the country has been breaking out in the open quite a bit of late. Let's review a few examples:

politico.com/news/2020/10/2…
A bit hard to believe that Barr has become part of the insurgency, but apparently even he had lines he would not cross.

washingtonpost.com/national-secur…
DOD continues to push back against Trump's Afghanistan strategy.....

nytimes.com/2020/10/12/wor…
Read 7 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
15 Oct
Given how many times Trump and Rudy had been warned by the IC this anti-Biden stuff was an effort by Putin to launder disinfo into US politics, and that our govt declared one of Rudy's top contact a Russian spy, it's hard not to review this busted op as something akin to treason.
As I was saying - the President and Rudy knowingly worked with Russia (again) to try to damage Biden even after they were told by the Intel Community it was a Russian op.

If treason isn't the right word for this, what is?

Need to remember that the two men working directly with Rudy and the President - Parnas and Fruman - were arrested last year, and that Parnas said their efforts to get Biden were directed by the President himself.

medium.com/@Simon_Rosenbe…
Read 6 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
14 Oct
So, friends who just joined me for our Poll Roundup. A few links, as promised:

The #flipthesenate fundraiser this Friday w/@BarackObama

The @DLCC joint fundraising committee:

My home base for most of my data @FiveThirtyEight @NateSilver538 fivethirtyeight.com
Read 7 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
14 Oct
1/Barr has done a lot of very heavy lifting for Trump, but keeping Rudy out of jail may be his most significant achievement.

Perhaps why he couldn't also save Bannon, Cohen, Flynn, Fruman, Gates, Manafort, Parnas, Parscale and Stone - had to prioritize.
2/Every attack against Biden has failed over the past two years. IC's been warning that all this Ukraine stuff was coming fr Russia. Senate report, unmasking, Durham all duds.

This new thing is crude, implausible and proves nothing.....it's pathetic.

3/Can we also marvel at how derivative it is of 2016 - mystery laptop appears w/damaging emails! Trumpworld, Fox, r/w ecosystem go crazy. Media bite. It turns out to be nothing in the end.

Helps explain Trump's bizarre attacks on Hunter at debate - he knew it was coming.
Read 6 tweets
Simon Rosenberg Profile picture
12 Oct
It's truly unbelievable that major GOP officials who've had COVID are returning to public life, ignoring CDC protocols, threatening to infect their colleagues/staff/supporters, w/o confirming 100% it is safe for them to do so.

Other nations should be looking at this in horror.
It remains unfathomable and deeply deeply corrupt that 4 years after establishing a new precedent that the will of the voters in a Presidential election year should determine a SCOTUS pick, Rs are moving ACB in midst of in clear electoral rejection of everything she stands for.
My god do we have do everything we can to vote these reckless lunatics out of office. This really is too much for all of us to take now.
Read 7 tweets

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