I always think that abortion policy is the place where feelings trump facts most, because we know that

a) banning abortions DOESN'T reduce abortions
b) contraception DOES reduce abortions
c) abortion bans are very harmful

And yet people still advocate for bans
None of this is controversial in the slightest, and indeed is very well-demonstrated. The problem is that inducing an abortion isn't necessarily hard, it's inducing one SAFELY that is the problem
I always find this abbreviated list of abortion techniques from the WHO enlightening on the topic. These are things that women try in the absence of safe abortion provision

Examples include inserting knives into the uterus, drinking turpentine, and jumping off a roof
Conversely, there's pretty strong evidence that providing free contraception to women can reduce the number of abortions
academic.oup.com/humrep/article…
So anyone who wanted to reasonably reduce the occurrence of abortions in an area would be advocating for better provision of cheap contraceptives, and better funding of family planning services
Unfortunately, the debate really isn't about reducing abortions at all, which is why it generally becomes about religious or moral arguments rather than an actual effort to reduce abortions per se

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More from @GidMK

28 Oct
A lot of people seem to completely misunderstand herd immunity

Immunity is about CASES, not DEATHS or HOSPITALIZATIONS

Even if deaths were to decrease, if cases are rising it is not herd immunity BY DEFINITION
To a great extent, I think this is because people have consistently been sold herd immunity as an end to the pandemic, even if that doesn't really make sense
The point is, even if we were to decrease the fatality rate of COVID to the level of the common cold, if cases are still increasing it's not population/herd immunity
Read 4 tweets
27 Oct
Monthly data from the Victorian Suicides Register shows that until the start of September 2020, there had been no increase in suicides in the state compared to previous years
coronerscourt.vic.gov.au/sites/default/…
Of course, this does not preclude a large increase in September/October, but at least using the best current evidence there does not appear to be evidence to support the claim that policy has driven a direct increase in suicides
I have just found the more recent Coroners report showing that this trend persisted in September - again, it is possible that there was a large increase in Oct, but currently no evidence of an increase in suicide rates in Victoria in 2020 coronerscourt.vic.gov.au/sites/default/…
Read 6 tweets
26 Oct
Worth noting the truly spectacular achievement of the Australian state of Victoria, which went from 500 daily COVID-19 cases in mid-July to NO cases and NO deaths today

In the same time period, France went from 500 daily cases to 50,000 cases and 100s of deaths today
Well done Victorians! 👏👏👏👏
And, uh, not so well done France 😕
Read 4 tweets
23 Oct
So, this is doing the rounds, and an 8.5-point drop in IQ does seem terrifying post-COVID, but I think there are a few things about the study that are worth pointing out
You can find the study here. It's a fairly simple examination of a very large database of people doing psychometric tests online in Britain

medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
The researchers recruited 84,000 people starting in December 2019, and mostly in the months of January and May 2020, to do a series of tests that measure cognitive ability (not IQ per se, but similar in nature)
Read 9 tweets
22 Oct
Worth noting that this represents 607,559 COVID-19 tests with 226 positives, giving a positive rate of 0.0372%

Even if EVERY TEST was a false positive, that gives a specificity of ~99.96%
But, because positive people are almost always retested here we can actually examine this question more robustly. Of the 226 positive results, one was later retested and found to be a false positive!
To calculate test specificity, we take TN/(TN+FP) = 607333/(607333+1) = 99.99984%

To put it another way, very roughly 1 false positive test per million tests done
Read 5 tweets
21 Oct
Interesting new preprint on #LongCovid. Some take-homes:

- ~14% of people
- can last months
- associated with +symptoms, previous respiratory disease, gender, age
- not associated with metabolic disease (mostly)
medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
To me, this is the most interesting table. You can look through and see what is and isn't associated with PCR-positive Long COVID
Not unsurprising that people who experience worse symptoms in their initial COVID-19 infection are more likely to suffer from #LongCovid
Read 8 tweets

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