So, this is doing the rounds, and an 8.5-point drop in IQ does seem terrifying post-COVID, but I think there are a few things about the study that are worth pointing out
The researchers recruited 84,000 people starting in December 2019, and mostly in the months of January and May 2020, to do a series of tests that measure cognitive ability (not IQ per se, but similar in nature)
They found that those who reported having more symptoms consistent with COVID-19 had a lower score on these cognitive tests, and therefore concluded that "COVID-19 infection likely has consequences for cognitive function"
Scary!
But astute readers will probably already see an issue here
If they recruited starting in December, and had many responses in January in Britain...how could these people have been COVID-19 patients?
Long story short: they weren't. Of the 84,000 people who did the cognitive tests, only ~361~ reported having a confirmed case of COVID-19
That's, uh, not ideal
Now, while this did represent the majority of hospitalized cases, it's still a bit of a problem for a paper looking at COVID-19 specifically to have very few cases of COVID-19 to examine!
I think it's probably fair to say that the results show that people who have recently experienced a major hospitalization have worse cognitive processing than people who haven't
I definitely don't think that you can infer from this research anything in particular about COVID-19 infections and IQ in general
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But, because positive people are almost always retested here we can actually examine this question more robustly. Of the 226 positive results, one was later retested and found to be a false positive!
To calculate test specificity, we take TN/(TN+FP) = 607333/(607333+1) = 99.99984%
To put it another way, very roughly 1 false positive test per million tests done
Interesting new preprint on #LongCovid. Some take-homes:
- ~14% of people
- can last months
- associated with +symptoms, previous respiratory disease, gender, age
- not associated with metabolic disease (mostly) medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
To me, this is the most interesting table. You can look through and see what is and isn't associated with PCR-positive Long COVID
Not unsurprising that people who experience worse symptoms in their initial COVID-19 infection are more likely to suffer from #LongCovid
Now, I think it's reasonable to assume that the proportion of people who die after being infected by COVID-19 will fall over time. It's probably true that being infected today is less deadly than earlier this year
That being said, I'm quite skeptical of the evidence presented. This story seems to claim that death rates have dropped ENORMOUSLY, while I would expect something more in the range of a relative 10-20% drop (say from 25% to 20%)
Depressingly, there is little evidence that the pre-existing immunity from the first wave has substantially dampened viral spread, despite earlier hopes
Worth noting that Tegnell himself predicted that Sweden would reach "herd immunity" by mid-May originally, until serology studies proved that this was wrong
People have been asking me to debunk this thread "proving" that COVID-19 deaths are false positives by correlating things, but instead I thought I'd simply list a few things that are more well correlated than this