Eli Lilly’s antibody therapy unfortunately is not working in hospitalized patients. A blow to a hopeful “remedy” that could help tip the balance between risk of infections vs risk of economic fallout
But this isn’t the last of this story.. not by far
First, there are other antibody based therapies that are being developed, are in trials and new versions in early R&D phase.
Monoclonal antibodies have a huge potential and we mustn’t let this get us down.
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Regeneron’s monoclonal antibody therapy for example (the drug given to the president) remains in trials for hospitalized patients. This is but one of many that will be in trials!
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But also, one of the remarkable aspects of antibody based therapies is that they don’t need to only be therapies given to hospitalized patients... and don’t need to be “just therapies” at all...
Antibodies are evolved to persist in us for quite some time...
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Like natural antibodies, these too can have long lifespan’s in the body and we can envision that monoclonals could be used as prophylactic therapies.
So while Lilly’s antibody may not benefit hospitalized patients, it could serve to prevent new infections, as one example.
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In this case, an antibody based drug could be thought of almost like a temporary vaccine - giving the body what a vaccine would otherwise attempt to elicit. A prophylactic treatment.
These types of uses, are being thought up and developed as I write this.
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In the nearer term, Eli Lilly isn’t done with their drug. Without moving towards prophylactic, their drug may still benefit those with mild or early infections. These trials too are happening. We have to wait and see.
In meantime, I’ll remain hopeful for these. They make sense.
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New paper showing strong agreement between nasal (ie self collection) and nasopharyngeal swab on rapid test. This is an important finding since, in US, rapid tests currently authorized for nasopharyngeal swabs and thus need healthcare collections
These types of studies are needed to identify how well rapid antigen tests may work with self collected swab - essential for wide distribution and public health screening use of these tests to help curb outbreaks.
Other notable items from this paper:
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One is that the rapid antigen tests in this paper (SD Biosensor) performed very well up to a Ct of about 30. This is what we have expected for these tests and is likely at this rate to capture most infections with viable virus. Great for a public health screening test
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For the 14 day average change to >double in only 3 days means that the actual current change is much more than 15% (to pull a 14-day change that far up in only 3 days means the past three days have seen remarkably large increases).
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This is not some fear tactic. This is peoples lives. This is the proper functioning of our healthcare system (already stretched to the brim at baseline).
We are only at the beginning of this “spike” and it could continue accelerating up for months!
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This is for a saliva based PCR test. The test actually likely costs <$10.
Add overhead for staff and the lab. Maybe - MAYBE - get to $25. But $130. This is extortion in my opinion.
#SalivaDirect on the other hand (as one example) has made a strong concerted (and so far successful) effort to drop prices and raise awareness that these exorbitant prices need not exist
Not surprising - they are not-for-profit and doing what’s right
This happened faster than I expected, and I’ve been anticipating major upswings. We’re unfortunately just at the beginning
Going into fall w 60k cases/d means winter may well dwarf the spring and summer peaks
It’s up to us to change the course. But won’t w/out proper leadership
I’m referring to the fact that we are right back to our summertime peak. So early into this long winter.
This makes me mad as hell and really really sad. Not just for the ppl who will die (1000/d right now) but for the stores that will close, the families that will lose jobs, the health effects due to COVID and as important as anything else, the mental health effects that will occur
This figure depicts one persons different B cells (x axis) across 3 different weeks in time, and how they react to SARS2 spike (y axis - broad categories) and how the secreted antibodies from those B cells reacts with other seasonal coronaviruses (y axis - smaller categories)
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What is remarkable is the change over time from day 9 to day 16 in the binding of antibodies to the seasonal coronavirus OC43 by B cells elicited by exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 Spike ectodomain (S ecto).
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