As I reported likely last week, the #covid19 Sweden death toll today *decreased* by 15. In reality, there were (at least) 16 deaths added, all since October 12, and at least 31 deaths removed, from May to August.
https://twitter.com/DavidSteadson/status/1319623112825200640?s=20
Small numbers, but mortality appears to be slowly creeping since the end of September, with knowledge there remains a lag of about 2 weeks. 
Swedish Palliative Registry now reports 108 deaths for October, an increase of 17 since Friday. (FHM reports 59)
Mortality figures are still low, however this is unlikely to remain so. Swedish intensive care registry reports 56 Covid patients as of yesterday (subject to change), a doubling in 2 weeks.
New cases continue to soar. A few people criticized me calling the growth exponential, I think now it's clear on the graph. 1870 on Friday is a record for cases in Sweden, though note testing has increased significantly since April
Cases per 100000 pop per 14 days has almost certainly now exceeded 150.
I have serious concerns (again) about how the public health authorities are responding to this. Deaths lag ICU numbers. ICU numbers lag cases. Cases lag infections.
Infections are soaring. Meanwhile, Socialstyrelsen says ICU is in good condition, 27% of places still available.
Infections are soaring. Meanwhile, Socialstyrelsen says ICU is in good condition, 27% of places still available.
Given the epidemiological situation right now, that is not going to last very long, even if we increase NPI immediately.
The Swedish Medical Association has requested FHM reconsider it's relaxation of restrictions on the elderly. Tegnell responds that infections are low there.
The Swedish Medical Association has requested FHM reconsider it's relaxation of restrictions on the elderly. Tegnell responds that infections are low there.
In every other country, the Summer infections started among the young and then spread to the elderly. The same is happening her, albeit delayed.
Data reported *today* reflects the situation 2 weeks ago. New restrictions put in immediately won't show effect for another 2-3 weeks
Data reported *today* reflects the situation 2 weeks ago. New restrictions put in immediately won't show effect for another 2-3 weeks
For reasons I do not understand, Folkhälsomyndigheten continues to respond with a "just in time" approach, when in fact it's "way too late."
Someone asked what R currently was. Just ran the numbers using all case data up until Friday (Folkhälsomyndigheten only uses serious cases) and it is 1.4, the highest it has been since the beginning of April.
It has not been below 1 in almost 2 months.
It has not been below 1 in almost 2 months.
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