Thread by @merlemassie

So...when I say that there is energy in last night's Buffalo Party vote, I decided to break it down. They ran 17 candidates in ridings across the province. Definitely an indicator of not great organization (Greens ran 60, PCs 31) but 17 ran.

In those ridings, the percentage of the vote ranged from a low of 3.49% of that riding's vote (Saskatoon Stonebridge Dakota) up to a whopping 25.50% in Estevan.

So if you average the percentage votes from the ridings where they had candidates, it's 9.35% of the total votes across those 17 ridings.
*9.35%*

Clearly, there are trends. Areas with higher oil and gas (Kindersley, Estevan) had very high percentages...but not everywhere. Their showing in Lloydminster was 5.14%.

Given the one riding with an urban presence had the lowest percentage, we can potentially assume that this trend would continue -- higher in oil ridings (where anti Ottawa sentiment is high), lower in urban.

But the average from the ridings where they ran candidates shows a 9.35% voting percentage support. That's not small. Sure, when you count their overall provincial percentage, it's much smaller. 2.88% of the provincial vote. Easy to dismiss.

But their vote count across fewer ridings beat both Green (60 candidates) and PC (31 candidates). 11,055 votes not including mail-in votes.

I found it hard to get some colleagues and friends to see and understand this energy. Some were surprised when I brought it up as something to watch.

It's something to watch. Even if it's just a historical blip.