I’m at a Don Jr rally in Cedar Rapids where Sonny Perdue is warming the crowd up by telling how the polls were wrong in his 2002 gov race.

“I’ve been in Iowa for a few days, and lemme tell ya, Biden is runnin’ third behind Trump and ‘for sale’ signs.”
Perdue says “all you have to do is read the platforms” to know the choice in 2020. (There is no Republican platform.)
Don Jr takes the stage to “Stranglehold” by Ted Nugent. “We’re going to make so many liberals cry on November 3!”
Don Jr’s first few minutes are all about Hunter. “All of the things they accused Donald Trump of doing, or Ivanka, Hunter Biden was doing times 1000.”
“I take it personally. I spent 30 hours in front of various committees... I won’t get the same benefit that the McCabes and the Brennans of the world get.”
Don Jr promoting tonight’s scheduled Tony Bobulinski interview on Fox. “He’s got recordings. They’re still going to cover it up.”

He asks for a show of hands: “How many of you have been in Facebook jail or the equivalent?” About 1/5 of hands go up.
Don Jr calls Harris a “phony” for her debate tussle with Biden.

“I could deliver that line, including ‘that little girl.’”

He pretends that someone in the audience is offended.

“How dare you? How do you know how I identify?”
Don Jr says Biden’s covid plan is “Shut it down forever. Shut down the economy for three, four years.”

“He hasn’t articulated his actual plan.”
Some of the biggest applause tonight comes when Don Jr recounts how dad made him “sit my ass on a D10 [bulldozer]” to learn how construction worked.
Don Jr’s rapid fire recount of conservative media is something to see IRL. 20 minutes in, he’s onto Nancy Pelosi’s salon visit and ice cream fridge.

“I’m the son of a billionaire from New York. I understand that that’s terrible optics.”
Don Jr recounting a rally his father held at this venue in December 2015 - bunch of folks in crowd remember. “The Christmas Party!”
Don Jr begins talking about peace deals, then gets into a tangent about how he was “negative 5” when Biden was elected to Senate. “Where the hell was I? Ah, yeah — Middle East peace.”

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More from @daveweigel

28 Oct
Cotton mentions Biden calling Russia our greatest adversary and how Obama dismissed Romney when he said same.

“He said, the 80s called, and they want their foreign policy back. I guess the 80s called and they want their Democratic presidential candidate back.”
Cotton didn’t mention Hunter Biden, but one of the questions to former gov/ambassador to China Branstad is about it. Branstad says he doesn’t know the details, criticizes media outlets for suppressing allegations when they didn’t do that with Trump allegations.
Interesting moment when Branstad - ambassador to China for three years - hands the mic to Cotton to break down the intellectual property theft issue, which he does as a lot of heads nod
Read 5 tweets
24 Oct
I'm at a Nikki Haley "Indian Voices for Trump" event, where @opinionbazaar is introducing some pro-Trump arguments I've not heard outside this setting: Trump "never once interjected himself into the Kashmir issue," and if Trump loses, China is more likely to go to war w India.
Folks... Image
Haley's shorthand history of herself and Trump (understandably!) leaves out her 2016 criticism of him. She says she first interacted w him after her 2010 primary win: "He had sent a support check, it came in a big white envelope with gold trim, and it said: You’re a winner."
Read 6 tweets
19 Sep
Interested to see if polls move at all bc of SCOTUS. What people forget is that Trump had a ton of slack with GOP voters in 2018 - he gained in final weeks bc loyal Republicans came home, partly bc of SCOTUS. His problem now: he's fully consolidated that base and it's not enough.
Without third parties (Greens aren't even on MI/PA ballot) and an unpopular opponent, getting every Republican vote in the Midwest still leaves Trump short. Stuff could happen in the fight that moves votes, but there wasn't a pro-Trump majority waiting around for a court fight.
I emphasize this because both liberals and conservatives tend to over-rate how conservative the electorate is; Trump won, ipso facto Republicans win when there's a vacancy. Trump had a very specific problem with reliable GOP voters that he's fixed for this year.
Read 4 tweets
10 Sep
Two minutes into Trump's speech here: "If Biden wins, China wins. If Biden wins, the mob wins. If Biden wins, the rioters, arsonists, and flag burners win. But don't worry about it, because he's not going to win."
Trump drops a "Barack Hussein Obama" reference as he recounts his final Michigan rally in 2016. Also, a few minutes of praise for John James, which both parties are always happy to see.
Trump attacks Biden's pledge to let in more refugees: "He's promised to flood your state with refugees from terrorist hotspots like Syria and Yemen." (There are tons of Yemeni refugees in MI already.)
Read 4 tweets
6 Sep
This has actually happened *twice* in MA since 2018 - weak left-wing candidates didn't back out of the race so the strongest left-wing candidate got clipped by a moderate who got less than 23% of vote.
The problem in MA04 wasn't so much Leckey (the Sanders wing candidate) taking voters from Mermel (the Pressley-backed candidate). It was two eventual Mermel endorsers waiting too late to drop out and a no-chance candidate (Linos) siphoning suburban left votes away.
My take after spending some time in the district was that Linos was decisive. She bit into Mermel's Brookline base and her "lead with the science" message was tailor-made for getting Women's March-y suburban voters, even though she had a weak campaign.
Read 4 tweets
2 Sep
The reference to "eliminating air travel" reflects just how good the right is at *consistent* messaging. The Green New Deal FAQ of February 2019 now lives on the website of the Heartland Foundation, a climate skeptic think tank. heartland.org/publications-r…

It's all based on an ironic line about what the GND *wouldn't* do - net zero emissions, not no emissions whatsoever, bc "in 10 years, because we aren’t sure that we’ll be able to fully get rid of farting cows and airplanes that fast."
This hasn't really damaged Democrats bc "my opponent will ban cows" sounds/is bonkers. But one snarky staffer put that sentence in and it's been used to club Democrats over the head for 17 months.
Read 4 tweets

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