I'm at a Nikki Haley "Indian Voices for Trump" event, where @opinionbazaar is introducing some pro-Trump arguments I've not heard outside this setting: Trump "never once interjected himself into the Kashmir issue," and if Trump loses, China is more likely to go to war w India.
Folks...
Haley's shorthand history of herself and Trump (understandably!) leaves out her 2016 criticism of him. She says she first interacted w him after her 2010 primary win: "He had sent a support check, it came in a big white envelope with gold trim, and it said: You’re a winner."
Event's geared toward Indian-Americans, audience is diverse but mostly white - Haley's talk about her heritage included some factoids about Indian-American achievement more geared to latter. Asked how Biden would hurt Indian-Americans, delivered the standard campaign message.
Asked what Trump is like as a person: "He listens. If ever I thought he was going in a direction I didn't agree with, I could call him and meet with him."
Big takeaway from that was that there’s a very compelling way to talk about Trump’s foreign policy record, emphasizing how he ignored CW and acted on things the “establishment” wrung its hands about for years.
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Interested to see if polls move at all bc of SCOTUS. What people forget is that Trump had a ton of slack with GOP voters in 2018 - he gained in final weeks bc loyal Republicans came home, partly bc of SCOTUS. His problem now: he's fully consolidated that base and it's not enough.
Without third parties (Greens aren't even on MI/PA ballot) and an unpopular opponent, getting every Republican vote in the Midwest still leaves Trump short. Stuff could happen in the fight that moves votes, but there wasn't a pro-Trump majority waiting around for a court fight.
I emphasize this because both liberals and conservatives tend to over-rate how conservative the electorate is; Trump won, ipso facto Republicans win when there's a vacancy. Trump had a very specific problem with reliable GOP voters that he's fixed for this year.
Two minutes into Trump's speech here: "If Biden wins, China wins. If Biden wins, the mob wins. If Biden wins, the rioters, arsonists, and flag burners win. But don't worry about it, because he's not going to win."
Trump drops a "Barack Hussein Obama" reference as he recounts his final Michigan rally in 2016. Also, a few minutes of praise for John James, which both parties are always happy to see.
Trump attacks Biden's pledge to let in more refugees: "He's promised to flood your state with refugees from terrorist hotspots like Syria and Yemen." (There are tons of Yemeni refugees in MI already.)
This has actually happened *twice* in MA since 2018 - weak left-wing candidates didn't back out of the race so the strongest left-wing candidate got clipped by a moderate who got less than 23% of vote.
The problem in MA04 wasn't so much Leckey (the Sanders wing candidate) taking voters from Mermel (the Pressley-backed candidate). It was two eventual Mermel endorsers waiting too late to drop out and a no-chance candidate (Linos) siphoning suburban left votes away.
My take after spending some time in the district was that Linos was decisive. She bit into Mermel's Brookline base and her "lead with the science" message was tailor-made for getting Women's March-y suburban voters, even though she had a weak campaign.
The reference to "eliminating air travel" reflects just how good the right is at *consistent* messaging. The Green New Deal FAQ of February 2019 now lives on the website of the Heartland Foundation, a climate skeptic think tank. heartland.org/publications-r…
It's all based on an ironic line about what the GND *wouldn't* do - net zero emissions, not no emissions whatsoever, bc "in 10 years, because we aren’t sure that we’ll be able to fully get rid of farting cows and airplanes that fast."
This hasn't really damaged Democrats bc "my opponent will ban cows" sounds/is bonkers. But one snarky staffer put that sentence in and it's been used to club Democrats over the head for 17 months.
Can see a wide path for Jake Auchincloss in #MA04, but this isn't a clear story of anybody spoiling anybody: Grossman was going for the same voters as him (from same base), Leckey and Linos going for the same voters as Mermell.
That said it reminds me a bit of those CA races last cycle where a couple candidates would have no strategy for victory but keep running anyway.
This Intercept piece touting Ihssane Leckey - who's heading for fifth place in #MA04 - used an internal Leckey poll to suggest that Mermell was stalled out. A better metric might have been $. Leckey mostly had to self-fund, as she raised a bit over $250k from donors.
First town counted in #MA01, Windsor, suggets higher turnout than 2018, including some new Neal votes.
2018
Neal: 100
Amatul-Wadud: 55
2020
Neal: 128
Morse: 94
First flip is Worthington, though everything is good *enough* for Neal to keep him ahead overall. (The first Holyoke precinct was great for Neal.)
2018
Neal: 214
Amatul-Wadud: 200
2020
Morse: 261
Neal: 177
We're expecting at least 1.1 million Dem primary votes statewide, and more than 100k in #MA01, so I'm not over-analyzing based on the precincts in, just looking at towns that are finished.