Fasten your seat belt. Covid19 is going to explode in the US from now through the new year.
The worst of all, i am hearing a lot of anecdotes of primary-care physicians in smaller cities/rural areas managing covid symptoms as if it is flu.
Very little thoughts being put into anti-inflammatory and anticoagulant.
When its-just-flu bros get treated by its-just-flu physicians,
That's what I call a shitshow.
Death lags inflections by 4-6 weeks. Right now is not the time to be complacent.
A lot of lab resources and personalized care are needed to navigate the 2nd-3rd week of covid (hyperinflammatory and hyper-coagulation phase). Just imagine that big post Thanksgiving and post Christmas flux of elderly patients rushing the hospitals at the same time
What kind of quality of care should one expect?
Its not like we have hundreds of thousands of REGN-COV2 to be dispensed in every city.
As a result, most elderly patients will have to go through the natural progression from the viral phase to hyper-inflammation/hyper-coagulation
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People ask me how Chinese managed to control COVID for the last few months.
Well, people there have to run mobile tracing apps on their cell phone 24/7, which generates a pass for them to access any transportation, restaurants, malls, hotels etc.
A relative of mine recently did a sight-seeing trip in China, and ended up having to run 4 tracing app on her phone.
One from China CDC
One from the cdc of the province she lives
One from the cdc of the destination province
One from the Hubei CDC for her 5hr layover in Wuhan
If any lab-confirmed covid cases has came in close proximity of her, the tracing app will turn red automatically as soon as the lab report comes out. And anybody who contacted her would have the tracing app turning orange.
our CDC and WH are now pushing for “younger kids have lowest risk of spreading COVID19”, based on extrapolated data from spring and summer when schools are CLOSED.
In contrast, major cities in China, e.g. Shanghai, impose stricter quarantine rules for school kids for their upcoming holiday week:
non-student adult can travel domestically without restrictions, while school kids who leave their residence city have 14-day mandatory quarantine
Part of their risk management:
Adults can be quickly traced and notified with their cell phone QR systems, should an outbreak occur
School kids don’t have cell phones, are more prone to asymptomatic spread, and are packed in classrooms with poorer ventilation (higher risk)
An important question is what vaccines to take if you have a choice. Prof. Florian Krammer did an excellent review of major vaccines that are likely to be available soon here.
There are three distinct pictures of Chinese economy.
The version in US media/social media is getting close to the Soviet version in the 70s/80s
The version in domestic Chinese media is like the US in the go-go days of the late 90s
both images serve domestic political purposes
The 3rd version is the blueprint/plan agreed upon by the ruling elite in China, which they talk about occasionally.
To me, this 3rd version appears strikingly similar to what FDR-Henry Morgenthau executed in the 30s-40s for the US.
I found this fascinating, because how this unfolds will definitely affect the standing of USD in the next 20 years and they've decided to use an American strategy to compete with America.
will expand on this topic after I wrap up a couple of projects at hand.
B/S continue to expand with large volatility (4 steps forward, 3 steps back). mid-month expansion in Sept will be cancelled by EOM MBS QT in Sept.
Starting in Oct, we should see a more regular pattern, as BOJ&ECB finish their swap-line unwind.
SPX has been lagging B/S by 3-5 days, it will be interesting to see if the trend continues.
Fiscal & monetary & earning season will add to each other in mid Oct..
Fiscal deficit spending (gray cruve) is back to the old monthly pattern (i.e. little stimulus money), with large EOM/BOM peaks and a few smaller peaks in the middle of the month. Will the stock follow?