Thread by @wolfejosh

1/ The eventual reversion + shift
from GROWTH to VALUE
will take a while––

but I see ONE key catalyst:
a series of AOL/TimeWarner-like deals.

where smaller (more highly valued growth stock currency) consumes larger (cheaper cash-generating value biz’s, deemed in decline)...

2/ It will post facto finally bring reward to VALUE investors––

(who are facing growing, classic, end-of-cycle claims of the death of their strategy; from fund shutdowns to questioning Buffet to Damodoran as apologist)

––NOT because market sees the value they do...

3/ But IN SPITE of it––

as the market will have created crazy HIGH valuations of bad businesses that will buy good businesses at crazy LOW valuations

That will
1. put VALUE back in vogue
2. create tremendous SHORT opps as the combos fail
(but are good for book publishers)...

4/ That said remember it took 4.25 years (42.5% of a decade) from Greenspan correct observation of ‘irrational exuberance’ and a lot of very silly + very bad mergers.

5/ Some of it will be motivated by equivalent of arena-naming (whereby upstart CEO puts co name on a widely recognized brand or operation)––could be rising tech name buying airline, hotel, hospitality, restaurant chain

The symbolism + signal of the move will matter most