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Sanjeev Sanyal Profile picture
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28 Oct, 5 tweets, 1 min read
This is a fundamental fallacy. History is a complex adaptive system that is not deterministic. 50k of the "brightest" minds cannot predict the new "normal" as there is no such thing 1/n
After the event, some of these 50k "experts" will be correct and these will be hailed as great prophets. However, we have no way to ex ante know which ones. 2/n
So what should we do? Invest in resilience (ie hedge for cliffs) and in adaptation. Then make a few bets that may just work, but with a willingness to ruthlessly shut them down if they fail. 3/n
As for the new normal.... The world is not heading for a new equilibrium, don't hold your breath for it. A new set of "strange attractors" will emerge and drive events, but there is not equilibrium to aspire to. 4/n
What matters is creating options, hedging for breakdowns, taking targetted risks, and adapting. Tactical situation awareness, strategically resilience and flexibility. 5/n

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More from @sanjeevsanyal

Sanjeev Sanyal Profile picture
21 Oct
The worship of Durga (and Shakti more generally) is very old in Bengal. Excavations at Chandraketugarh, just north of Kolkata, have revealed several representations from circa 200 BC, except the weapons appear like a halo behind her head, not in her hands. 1/n
Although similarity to modern representation is obvious, the early form of Durga is not Mahisamardini (killer of the buffalo demon). Although latter would become popular across India by Gupta era, the almost exclusive identification of Durga as Mahisasurmardini came later 2/n
So why did the Mahisasurmardini form become so popular in Bengal? One possibility is influence of the Sen dynasty that ruled Bengal till 13th century. The Sens were from Karnataka (Mysore?). Thus, the modern idol is the result of Kanndiga influence 3/n
Read 5 tweets
Sanjeev Sanyal Profile picture
11 Oct
This is the location of Bholachang village, very close to Tripura capital Agartala (but now in Bangladesh) where the Hindustan Republican Association was formed in 1923 by Sachin Sanyal, Pratul Ganguly & NM Sen. 1/n
HRA was an umbrella organization that brought together various revolutionary groups across India such as Anushilan Samiti, Jugantar group, surviving Ghadarities etc. Its armed wing was the Hindustan Republican Army (inspired by IRA) led by Bismil 2/n
HRA's activities in the 1920s and early '30s are relatively well known (Kakori etc), but what happened to the movement later? It split into four. One remained nationalists (including Sachin Sanyal, Rashbehari etc) and this stream ultimately culminated in formation of INA. 3/n
Read 15 tweets
Sanjeev Sanyal Profile picture
3 Oct
Certain lobbies have invested heavily in presenting a deliberately tilted view of India in the international media. This is nothing new. A good illustration is the active management of US media 1940-42 by the British to justify continued colonial occupation of India. 1/n
Prior to Pearl Harbor, powerful elements in the US political establishment demanded Indian independence as a condition for supporting Britain. The British then invested heavily in manipulation of the media and the intellectual class 2/n
One interesting strategy was " track 2" diplomacy where pro British intellectuals (including some Indians) would be sent on think tank lecture tours in US. 3/n
Read 5 tweets
Sanjeev Sanyal Profile picture
1 Oct
Maruti car sales up 31% yoy in Sept while Manufacturing PMI jumped to 56.8, 8-year high. Some demand revival may be lagged sales held back by the lockdown and may ease off. However, it seems that there is latent demand in the system that is coming alive:

timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india…
M&M also saw 17% you increase in tractor sales, but commercial vehicles sales are down by similar amount. We are not out of the woods yet, but there is some demand coming back. Thing to watch is the services sector as it undergoes unlocking this month.
While it is too early to proclaim a trend, many high frequency indicators have turned positive. GST collection at Rs95.5k cr for Sept (up 4% yoy) and rail freight is up 15% yoy for the month.
Read 4 tweets
Sanjeev Sanyal Profile picture
1 Oct
Most of the discussion on Atmanirbhar Bharat has tended to focus on trade & industrial policy. This is not suprizing. However, there is an component that is less understood or discussed - #localism and decentralization. 1/n
The emphasis on decentralised systems is directly related to complex system theory. A key insight of complexity framework is that the world is non-deterministic. Hence, all top-down management is about creating simple "rules-of-the-game" that broadly work most of the time. 2/n
In complex systems, the behaviour of a component is only loosely linked to the whole. So specific outcomes should rarely be attempted top down. Instead, targeted outcomes should be attempted at the local level. 3/n
Read 9 tweets
Sanjeev Sanyal Profile picture
29 Sep
The communist infiltration of the revolutionary movement was a matter of concern to its leaders. Here is a letter from Rashbehari Bose to Sachin Sanyal 1938. It also tells us about the links to Japan before the war. 1/n
On the second page, Rashbehari clearly talks of how the British were quite happy to use communists to break the freedom movement in order to perpetuate their rule. Although his great faith in a benign Japan may have been misplaced. 2/n
It should be clear that Indian revolutionaries were more than aware of how the colonial government was using British communists like Rajni Palme to infiltrate their movement. The writer Yashpal is just one example of a planted informant. 3/n
Read 5 tweets

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