Aggregated 15 developed markets, using a traditional portfolio of stocks & bonds, show the highest valuations in two and half centuries.
On the real estate side, most developed economies residential real estate CAP rates have hit rock bottom — indicating very little, if any value, for the long term investors.
Across all traditional asset classes, valuations signal a very difficult decade ahead.
We have essentially borrowed returns from the future, by stimulating endlessly & continuously over the last 10 years.
Towards 2030, the most important outcome will be NOT to lose money.
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1/ In 1960, both Jamacia and Singapore separated from the great British Empire.
Both island nations, both started with similar GDP, using common law & English as a primary language of business.
2/ At the time, Singapore was a mosquito-ridden swamp, complete under-developed, and where the heroin trade was the most dynamic (black) part of the economy.
3/ However, due to incredible foresight and vision are by one of the greatest leaders to ever live in the 20th century — Lee Kuan Yew — Singapore became one of the greatest, if not the greatest country in the world today.
First and foremost, it is very clear American residents investing in local property are incentivized to leverage up and never sell.
Most US investors don't talk about selling, like Nick mentioned. Quite the opposite.
Instead, they all talk about "holding forever."
But why?
Due to high capital gains taxes (can use 1031 with pressure to buy within 90 days again), insane transaction costs & attractive long term fixed agency debt with depreciation.
If executed correctly, this is a fantastic wealth-building strategy — but there is a big emphasis on IF.
How to do a due diligence process for development projects:
1) start with the project overview which explains the key figures & stats
1a) if this isn’t attractive, 90% of the time you’re not going to bother with deeper analysis
2) look at the GP / developer, their recent...
...and long term track record, especially the way they handled the last major recession (2008)
3) understand the location, both the macro (country, state, city) & micro side (borough, suburb, streets) and focus on transport links, infrastructure and surrounding amenities
4) analyse the macro & micro location price trends over the last couple of decades, last few years and especially price trend pre & post Covid
5) now start focusing on the proposed construction projects, doing due diligence on building permit / developer approval first
Over the last several years — working on both our own projects as well as meeting clients' needs — we have used the highest quality natural black materials to achieve incredibly beautiful, modern, living environments.