Thread by @cjayanetti

"Labour is making ground where it needs to. The Tories are losing ground where they can't afford to."

I looked under the bonnet of the polling data, and found growing doubts about the government among Tory voters. politics.co.uk/comment-analys…

What you see in headline polling data is the views of those saying they would vote for a particular party.

But to get a fuller picture of public opinion, look at the figures for people who don't know who they'd vote for.

That's what I did.

politics.co.uk/comment-analys…

This is the overall picture over the course of this year, from the Opinium polling series - YouGov and other pollsters have similar.

The big Tory lead opens up further and then slams shut post-Cummingsgate

You know this already.

politics.co.uk/comment-analys…

But look at Conservative voters from the last election. As you can see below, their support for the Tories is fading - but Labour is making little headway.

Instead, these voters are increasingly heading to the 'Don't Know' column. politics.co.uk/comment-analys…

Now let's look at Leave voters. Same story: Labour making little headway - instead Leave voters are increasingly unsure about either party, having mostly backed Johnson last time out. politics.co.uk/comment-analys…

So where *is* Labour making headway?

Well, among Remainers and Lib Dems, unsurprisingly. But also look at this.

This is one of the key age brackets for Labour - 45-54-year olds. Labour is rallying with these middle-aged voters. politics.co.uk/comment-analys…

And here are voters in seats Labour has lost since 2005. The margin of error is larger than with headline polls, but you can see the trend over time: Labour up, Tories down. politics.co.uk/comment-analys…

So, overall Labour is making tentative progress among some key voters groups, while Tory voters grow increasingly uncertain about the government.

There's a huge way to go before the next election, but the party has made solid ground in six months. politics.co.uk/comment-analys…