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28 Oct, 5 tweets, 2 min read
This is to me one of the saddest and most important charts on the pandemic.

Those countries that are doing bad right now (high on the y-axis) are largely the same countries that did worst overall in this pandemic (cumulative case rate until Aug 1 on x-axis). Image
This is a slightly different version of the same chart.

Here the x-axis shows the cumulative case rate up to the present (which means some of the correlation is simply due to current cases counting towards cumulative cases).

And with the color showing the postive rate. Image
This chart would show us when a country reaches herd immunity.

A country that actually achieves herd immunity will have a high cumulative case rate and the current case rate will be low → it will end up in the bottom right corner (where no country is right now).
Some responded saying that Israel, Sweden, and South Africa are not in the chart and that these countries are close to herd immunity.

They are included in the chart and they are here.

→ interactive version ourworldindata.org/grapher/immuni… Image
Now some believe that Singapore is close to herd …

No, they are not.
Singapore had an outbreak among migrant workers in May. They now have low cases with the help of excellent testing efforts.
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_… Image

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Max Roser Profile picture
20 Oct
The rise of confirmed cases in Europe is very rapid.

– This is showing the 7-day rolling average. Over the last week 138,500 cases were confirmed every day.
– The doubling time of confirmed cases for Europe as a whole is two weeks.

[interactive source ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…]
But as always, confirmed cases are only a fraction of total cases.

And testing has become worse in the last weeks – the positive rates have increased in many European countries – so that the true doubling rate is likely quite a bit faster.

[source ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…]
And across European countries that differences are large.

Belgium & the Czech Republic report more than 700 cases per million every day.

On the other hand Estonia & Norway report fewer than 30 per million. Testing there is better so that the true difference is likely larger.
Read 13 tweets
Max Roser Profile picture
18 Oct
1/n] The pandemic will end when we reach herd immunity. The question is how we get there.

In a world without science and technological innovation there would be no alternative: The only way to achieve immunity is for a large share of the population to get infected.
2] But that’s not the world we live in. We can achieve herd immunity via a vaccine.
3] So it's a question of how optimistic we are about medical innovation.
Being in favour of a high infection rate now makes sense if you are pessimisic about the world's chance to develop a vaccine or to make progress towards good antivirals.
Read 8 tweets
Max Roser Profile picture
18 Oct
The cumulative death rate – since the start at the pandemic – in European countries.

The 5 countries where most lives were lost are: Belgium, Spain, the UK, Italy, and Sweden.

The countries that did well – those at the bottom – suffered a death rate that was 10-times(!) lower.
And these are the current positive rates of testing. Those countries that did poorly in containing the pandemic were – and are – also doing poorly in testing.

Belgium, Spain, UK, Italy, and Sweden have high positive rates.

Especially Finland, Norway, and Denmark are doing well.
You can explore all this data for yourself in our Data Explorer ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-da…

There you also find global data and data on confirmed cases, number of tests, and much more
Read 4 tweets
Max Roser Profile picture
9 Oct
What will the global decline of economic growth mean for extreme poverty?

• Orange is the pre-COVID scenario.
• The rise of poverty shows us what to expect under a contraction in global growth this year of 8 percent and 5 percent, respectively.

This is very, very bad. Image
The global goal of ending extreme poverty globally was out of reach before the pandemic as I and many others have written last year.

It would have required all countries to grow at 7 percent annually.
ourworldindata.org/extreme-povert…
Now with the global pandemic it is not realistic at all sadly.

(Reaching the 2030 would now require all countries to grow at rates of 8 percent per year between 2021 and 2030 and this we cannot realistically expect.) Image
Read 5 tweets
Max Roser Profile picture
9 Oct
1/n] I think it's a very good decision to give this year's Peace Nobel to the World Food Programme.

Hunger is one of the world's biggest problems and the WFP – one of the UN insitutions that works outstandingly well – is making the world a better place.

nobelprize.org/prizes/peace/2…
2] The world has made a lot of progress against hunger. This is the decline of famine deaths over time.

The WFP helped to avert possible famines in southern Africa (1991–92 & 2000–01), Afghanistan (2001), and western Africa (2012).

[Our work on famines: ourworldindata.org/famines]
3] But hunger remains a massive problem – 11% of the world population are undernourished.

And after decades of progress the share of people that are undernourished has not fallen in recent years.

[@_HannahRitchie's work on hunger on @OurWorldInData: ourworldindata.org/hunger-and-und…]
Read 5 tweets
Max Roser Profile picture
7 Oct
Almost unbelievably fast progress here in Britain. Coal is disappearing rapidly.

This visualization shows the daily share of Britain's electricity that is generated by coal.

In 2012 still 40% was generated by burning coal. Now we go months without any.

theguardian.com/environment/ng…
Here is the recent change in the context of the last century.

Smil and others say that energy transitions are slow, but this doesn’t look slow to me.

Britain was absolutely dominated by coal for generations. And now Britain got almost rid of it.

electricinsights.co.uk/#/reports/repo…
40% of electricity was generated by coal back in 2012.

In 2013 the country implemented the ‘carbon price floor’ (a top up carbon tax to the ETS).

According to this study (chapter 4) this is what led to the unprecedented reduction in coal generation.
ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/susta…
Read 4 tweets

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