Thread by @hshierholz

Here we go, the last unemployment insurance (UI) numbers before the election. Another 1.1 million people applied for UI last week, including 751,000 people who applied for regular state UI and 360,000 who applied for Pandemic Unemployment Assistance. 1/ dol.gov/ui/data.pdf

Before going into more depth on the UI numbers, I’m going to do a quick aside on those record-breaking 3rd quarter GDP numbers that also came out this morning. What do they really tell us? 2/

GDP is now 3.5% below where it was at the end of 2019. THIS IS THE SECOND-LARGEST THREE-QUARTER DROP ON RECORD. 3/

So, though the economy saw strong growth in the 3rd qrtr, it remains in absolute crisis. And other sources of data, like the monthly jobs numbers, show growth is slowing. The fact that McConnell adjourned the Senate with no COVID relief is disgraceful. 4/

https://twitter.com/hshierholz/status/1321474375053234176?s=20

Now that I’ve got that out of my system, back to UI. The 1.1 million who applied for UI last week was a decrease of just 25,000 from the prior week’s revised figures. 5/

Last week was the 32nd straight week total initial claims were far greater than the worst week of the Great Recession (GR). If you restrict to regular state claims (b/c we didn’t have PUA in the GR), initial claims are still 3.7 times where they were a year ago. 6/

Most states provide 26 weeks of regular benefits, and this crisis has gone on much longer than that. That means many workers are exhausting their regular state UI benefits. In the most recent data, continuing claims for regular state UI dropped by 709,000. 7/

Fortunately, after an individual exhausts regular state benefits, they can move onto Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC), which is an additional 13 weeks of regular state UI. 8/

However, in the latest data available for PEUC, (the week ending Oct 10,) PEUC rose by “just” 387,000, offsetting only 42% of the of the 921,000 decline in continuing claims for regular state benefits for the same week. 9/

The small increase in PEUC relative to the decline in continuing claims for regular state UI is likely due largely to admin glitches getting on to PEUC, including workers not being told either about PEUC or that they have to apply for it (states are supposed to notify them).10/

Available data reported by DOL indicate that right now, a total of 23.8 million workers are either receiving unemployment benefits or have applied recently and are waiting to get approved. 11/

⚠️But major caution here.⚠️The above chart is an overestimate. For one thing, initial claims for regular state UI & PUA should be nonoverlapping—that is how DOL wants agencies to report them—but some folks may be erroneously counted as being in both programs. 12/

An even bigger issue is that states are including retroactive payments in their continuing PUA claims, which would also lead to double counting. 13/

And that brings me to your regular reminder that nobody knows exactly how many people are receiving unemployment insurance benefits right now—another reminder that we need to invest heavily in UI infrastructure and technology. 14/

This chart shows continuing claims in all programs over time (the latest data for this are for Oct 10). Continuing claims are more than 21 million above where they were a year ago. (But use caution interpreting trends over time since March b/c of reporting issues.) 15/

Republicans in the Senate allowed the across-the-board $600 increase in weekly UI benefits to expire at the end of July. Last week was the thirteenth week of unemployment in this pandemic for which recipients did not receive the extra payment. 16/

And w/o congressional action, PUA and PEUC will also expire at the end of the year. Millions of workers are depending on these programs (DOL reports 14 mil for the wk ending Oct 10). When they expire, millions of these workers & their families will be financially devastated. 17/

But there is little hope for another stimulus bill before next year. The House passed a $2.2 trillion relief package, but McConnell adjourned the Senate on Tuesday with no COVID relief. The cruelty is mind-blowing. 18/

And blocking more stimulus is not just cruel, it’s terrible economics. For example, the spending made possible by the extra $600 in UI was supporting millions of jobs. Letting the $600 expire means cutting those jobs. 19/ epi.org/blog/cutting-o…

The labor market is still more than 12 million jobs below where it would be if the recession hadn’t happened, and job growth is slowing. It is shameful that Senate Republicans are walking away from the American people like this. 20/ epi.org/press/slowdown…

Blocking more stimulus also means no aid to state & local governments, no additional housing & nutrition assistance, no COVID-related health & safety measures for workers, no aid to the Postal Service, no additional support for hospitals and other health providers, etc. 21/

Blocking stimulus is also exacerbating racial inequality. Due to the impact of historic & current systemic racism, Black and Latinx workers have seen more job loss in this pandemic, and have less wealth to fall back on. The lack of stimulus hits these workers the hardest. 22/

And this is your regular reminder that people haven’t just lost their jobs. An estimated 12 million workers and their family members have lost employer-provided health insurance due to COVID. 23/ epi.org/publication/he… @joshbivens_DC @benzipperer

And as always, here's this tweet thread in blog post form. n/ epi.org/blog/senate-re…

One more! The GDP release this morning shows that the expiration of the extra $600 UI payment contributed $309 billion of the $541 billion decline in personal income in the third quarter. Letting that expire was so cruel and wrong. bea.gov/sites/default/…