How to build a bubble in one simple step.
Step 1. Ignore all data that disagrees with you and amplify the data that agrees with you. ππ
Step 1. Ignore all data that disagrees with you and amplify the data that agrees with you. ππ
https://twitter.com/gelliottmorris/status/1321827346937237505
We all do it at times. However, it's important to look at opposing views. I am aware that there is a chance the "polls" may be right, but I also know the data that says the "polls" are bullshit. By knowing both sides of the argument, I can make a better "guess".
It is only by contrasting the two sides can you be more confident in your conclusions. The data that says the "polls" are a bunch of bullshit is much more believable than the data that says the "polls" are accurate.That, in turn, causes me to search out other data that I can use
...too get a better picture of what is going on. This data would include things like voter registration numbers, GOTV efforts, early voting numbers, rally size, rally numbers, yard signs, social media engagement, media articles or lack of articles, wording of said articles,
..economic numbers, job numbers, trends in momentum and on and on. Each of which gives me a better understanding and more confidence in my conclusions. It also allows me to avoid bubble think. I understand the assumptions I am making and realize they are assumptions and I could
..be wrong but at the same time have a foundation in my conclusions that reassures me I'm probably not.
Reasoning. It doesn't mean I'm right, but it does improve my chances of being right and it also decreases the worry and fear of the unknown and unknowable.
Reasoning. It doesn't mean I'm right, but it does improve my chances of being right and it also decreases the worry and fear of the unknown and unknowable.
If you find yourself ignoring all information that doesn't agree with you, you should understand that you have a bigger chance of being wrong. This is one reason the "experts" are almost always wrong. They have self imposed blinders on. They pretend their field is not connected
...to other fields. They work in a bubble that their "expertness" creates as a function of being an expert in that field. So, sure Nate Silver may be right, the media polls may be right, the polls that don't agree with the groupthink may be wrong. But one group of polls
..align better with the other data outside of polls and one group of polls don't. So in the grand scheme of things, I'll use the ones that do align with the other data & consider the ones that don't mostly bullshit. It's an assumption on my part, sure. However, it's an assumption
..based on reasoning not on ideology or partisanship or because it agrees with what my "bros" in the bubble are saying.
As always think as you will.
As always think as you will.
β’ β’ β’
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