Makes perfect sense. A high 3rd party vote happens when there is fear/uncertainty of the other 2choices. An incumbent means fear is greatly reduced because people saw what they did for 4yrs. If you don't like what he/she did you will vote for the major party not a 3rd party.
The same is true, if you did like what he/she did during those 4 years. You would vote for the incumbent if you like what he did even if you don't really like him because you know a "protest" vote reduces the chances of the policies u liked about the candidate from re-occurring.
I've been saying for awhile now that the polls showing 2-3% 3rd party support are not correct. This doesn't "feel" like an election where it's wise to vote 3rd party on either side. West might be an exception in some of the states he is on the ballot as a "safe" vote for some.
Of course there are exceptions like 1992 but there you had a 3rd party candidate that was well liked and many thought had a chance to make a difference, so it wasn't looked at as a "protest" votes.
I see 2016 as more like 1980 with Anderson as the 3rd party & 2020 more like `84
as far as how the 3rd party vote will play out. Which is why I think states like NM and VA might be closer than many think where 3rd parties played a bigger role in the vote in 2016 than normal.
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This is mildly interesting. The GOP beat the dems in EV in NM dems have a large lead in mail in votes.
in 2016
Hillary got 385234 total votes.
Trump got 319667 total votes
Johnson got 74541 total votes
It looks like the dems are about tapped out unless turnout
...is going to be bigger (40,000 more to hit Hillary's count) while Trump has almost double that left. 16% of the NPA went 3rd party last time and the rest broke for Trump (42-37). It will be interesting to see how they vote this time.
GOP also beat the dems this year in voter registrations in NM.
the GOP added 35,645 new voters this (Jan 31st to Oct 30th) while dems added 29,505 new voters. NPA added 5,000 new voters. So the state tilted slightly red this year and since 2016. (+~11,500 to GOP)
"In addition to that: Accountability. In this President’s term, we have we have relieved over 8,000 employees of their duty at VA. The standard is, if you don’t live up to your oath, if you don’t live up to the standards that our veterans expect, that you will be asked to leave"
"And he has made true to his commitments by authorizing us to present to the Congress the largest budget in the history of this department: $220 billion calling for 400,000 employees."
The dem lead down to just +5.9pts (was+16pts in 2016 the GOP shaved another 0.7pts off their lead. The dems lead in total votes now down to +255k (Clinton had a lead of +310k & lost)
Today is the last day of Early voting in NC. Unless the dems have a major turnout today, it looks like the Gop is going into ED doing at least 54,700 votes better than they went into 2016.
BUT
At this point it all comes down to turnout on ED.
The % of EV+mail of black vote is at 19.3%. It was at 22.2% in 2016 early voting. The dems will need a large black turnout on ED to make up for the low turnout during EV+mail.
However, the dem strongholds are at about +65% turnout so not sure where that vote will come from.
Trump rally in MN....25,000 came ....250 allowed in.......Trump upset his supporters were treated like that. Called Gov and AG not very good leaders and proved it with the riots. Trump took the Beast and went to visit them and give them his thanks for coming....Gov and AG tried
to cancel....Trump said he would not cancel but people need to remember what their Governor did here. AG Ellison allowed the riots and peaceful protesters, flag burning but treats pro America voters as 2nd class citizens.
Trump took it to the left and Biden and how they treat us and promote the rioters and cancel culture.
The dems continue to lose ground in EV+mail. they are now down to only a 6.6pt lead. Remember Hillary had a 16pt lead in EV+ mail and lost.
The total vote count also continues to fall for the dems +269.9k
It was +310,000 for the dems in 2016 and they lost by 170,000.
As far as NPA voters go there is increase turnout and no one knows how they will vote. However in 2016 the NPA voted +16pts for Trump, in 2012 +15 for Mitt, +21 for McCain/Palin in 2008 and +15 for Bush
I don't see any reason for the NPA to vote much differently in 2020 but who knows.
The black vote continues to be lower as a % of the vote now at 19.5%...Per North Carolina State Board of Elections is was 22.2% in 2016
White Vote is at 66.3% North Carolina State Board of