Thread by @unseen1_unseen

EV+mail NC update using this site:
electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-202…

The dems continue to lose ground in EV+mail. they are now down to only a 6.6pt lead. Remember Hillary had a 16pt lead in EV+ mail and lost.

The total vote count also continues to fall for the dems +269.9k

It was +310,000 for the dems in 2016 and they lost by 170,000.

As far as NPA voters go there is increase turnout and no one knows how they will vote. However in 2016 the NPA voted +16pts for Trump, in 2012 +15 for Mitt, +21 for McCain/Palin in 2008 and +15 for Bush

I don't see any reason for the NPA to vote much differently in 2020 but who knows.

The black vote continues to be lower as a % of the vote now at 19.5%...Per North Carolina State Board of Elections is was 22.2% in 2016

White Vote is at 66.3% North Carolina State Board of

Elections it was 70.7% in 2016

Hispanic vote is increasing now at 2.2%. In 2016 per CNN exit total share of Hispanic vote (ED+EV+mail) was 5% so it's within norms.

So, you have a lower % Black vote and lower % white vote in NC EV+mail. However, a large (10% )are refusing to answer the race question. So take that for what you want.

All and all the dem vs rep question looks very good for the GOP in NC compared to 2016.

A final point. Most of the dem strongholds are showing 65-55% turnout so far, whereas, Gop counties continue to lag with most around 55-45%. In other words the Gop have more votes left for ED.