The Trump administration finalized a really interesting and potentially consequential policy today: Requiring insurers to tell you what your health care is actually going to cost in advance. cms.gov/CCIIO/Resource…
If you are surprised that you can't already learn these prices, perhaps you haven't been to the doctor in a while. Real prices for health care services are typically kept secret from patients until the bills come. And they can range widely. nytimes.com/2019/04/30/ups…
This is one of a bunch of rules the administration has finalized that aim to improve the transparency of health care prices. A similar, related rule, that asks hospitals to publish negotiated prices, is now the subject of litigation. nytimes.com/2020/06/23/ups…
President Trump and his advisors think these policies could have a huge impact, by changing the way patients choose their care and the way employers choose their provider networks. nytimes.com/2019/06/24/ups…
But academics are far more skeptical. Many think it is likely to have a marginal effect on health care prices, like a similar law in New Hampshire did. Here's a good @_melaevans story on that experience. wsj.com/articles/one-s…
Some even think the measure could backfire, causing health care prices to go up, not down. nytimes.com/2019/06/24/ups…
That apparently contrarian view is pretty widespread--held by the CBO and the FTC, for example.

It is the subject of one of my favorite t-shirts.
If you want to learn about price transparency, and New Hampshire, and Danish concrete in podcast form--of course you do!--check out this @tradeoffspod episode. tradeoffs.org/2020/07/07/the…
If only this story also included a popcorn angle.
The rule gives insurers a few years to comply. The kind of consumer tools it asks them to develop seem non-trivial to build. They will need to publish all their negotiated prices and provide individual customers with cost sharing estimates.
The hospital price rule, by contrast, goes into effect in January, assuming the courts don't stop it.
There is legal risk for both rules. Congress never passed laws requiring this kind of transparency. Like many Trump policies, judges will have to consider whether these rules are allowed under the Administrative Procedure Act. (Sorry, no tee-shirt.) nytimes.com/2019/01/22/ups…
One last thought: Unlike a lot of Trump health policies, this one doesn't strike me as particularly partisan. The disagreements about it don't fall along obvious ideological lines.
Ok, I lied. More thoughts: This rule hangs on language from the Affordable Care Act, a law that the Trump administration has asked the Supreme Court to eliminate. If Obamacare goes, so does the price transparency policy, along with many other things. nytimes.com/2019/07/11/ups…

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More from @sangerkatz

22 Sep
The real toll of Covid-19 is even higher than 200,000. Between mid-March and late August, 259,000 more Americans have died than would in a normal year. nytimes.com/interactive/20… @DeniseDSLu @jshkatz
The statistics in this article are based on CDC estimates for *all* deaths, so they don't depend on the availability of covid tests or the accuracy of death certificate reporting.
Not all of these deaths are necessarily from the virus itself. But they appear to be related to the pandemic and the ways it is changing our lives and health.

The regional patterns in deaths from all causes are tracking the movement of virus outbreaks across the country.
Read 7 tweets
21 Sep
There’s a big Obamacare challenge being argued before the Supreme Court right after the election. Here’s a primer on how it might go, now that Ginsburg has died. nytimes.com/2020/09/21/ups… with @sarahkliff
A few things of note.

Several people we spoke with said that this case may not split along the usual lines. Even though Obamacare itself is a partisan issue, the underlying legal questions don't divide the court ideologically.
nytimes.com/2020/09/21/ups…
If there is no new justice in time, and the court splits 4-4, that means the case has years more litigation to go. This case is unusual for SCOTUS, because the appellate court didn't decide the case. If its ruling stands, that means the trial judge will need to start over.
Read 7 tweets
18 Sep
The White House and Pharma were *this close* to a deal to lower Medicare drug spending by $150 billion over 10 years. But it blew up because the White House wanted to mail discount cards to Medicare beneficiaries before the election. nytimes.com/2020/09/18/us/… @jmartNYT @maggieNYT
Pharma balked at "Trump cards," which is why the president, for the second time, signed an executive order that says it will lower Medicare drug prices to the lowest price paid by foreign countries. whitehouse.gov/presidential-a…
As you may remember, the president signed such an order in July, too. But the White House never published the order in the Federal Register, as required by law. nytimes.com/2020/08/24/us/…
Read 9 tweets
8 Sep
Let’s go back in time to consider the performance of various epidemiological models for the shape of the coronavirus epidemic. nytimes.com/interactive/20… @qdbui @ParlaP @jshkatz Image
@qdbui @ParlaP @jshkatz Looking at the charts in this article should make you wary about:
1) Relying too much on the precision of any one model.
2) Assuming any of these models can look out more than a few weeks in the future.
3) The IMHE model in particular.
@qdbui @ParlaP @jshkatz You can look at the outputs from a large number of epi models here: cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
Read 4 tweets
27 Aug
Here’s how Dr. Anthony Fauci, the government’s top infectious disease scientist, found himself talking to multiple academic webinars, niche podcasts and facebook live chats a day. nytimes.com/interactive/20… with @qdbui @SherylNYT @noahweiland @kitty_bennett
@qdbui @SherylNYT @noahweiland @kitty_bennett The White House stopped approving interviews with major broadcast shows, so he started saying yes to everything else. nytimes.com/interactive/20… Image
@qdbui @SherylNYT @noahweiland @kitty_bennett “Given the urgency of the situation and the need to get correct information out, I was doing as many as humanly possible,” Dr. Fauci said. 

But all the talking caught up with him: He’s currently recovering from vocal cord surgery. nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Read 5 tweets
20 Aug
Flatten the curve, but for ballots. nytimes.com/interactive/20… @qdbui Image
If ballots are spread out, delivering them will not tax the postal service. If they all come at once, election week would look like Christmas week.
nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Ironically, the recession will make it easier for the postal service to process a ton of ballots.

Mail volume is way down this year.
nytimes.com/interactive/20… Image
Read 4 tweets

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