@sistronk @LivFree20 @MikayesFiona @TuckerCarlson @WarRoomPandemic Does Joe have to go?

As we talk about the Biden scandal tied up in the weeds we lose sight of the American instinct to trust people until proven untrustworthy.
1/4
Grifters often have a nice smile, reassuring words and comforting manner. In this case the former VP is also surrounded by loud defenders trying to drown out the scandal. But just stop and think, they are asking us to entrust our future, our safety and our lives to this man.
2/4
They have not answered the most basic questions about their economic relationships around the world. Joe are you a traitor? Joe are you a crook? Joe, why should I trust you with the lives of my family? Who trusts someone to protect their family or wealth given these problems?
3/4
Joe, prove to me these are lies, the lives and welfare of all American families are at stake. I am not convicting you of anything, I am asking you to prove I am safe to trust you. Prove I can trust you or, “Joe, got to go.”
4/4
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More from @letsthinkdeeply

1 Nov
@sistronk @LivFree20 @MichaelPSenger @MikayesFiona @EthicalSkeptic @TimTravis2 @EduEngineer @gummibear737 @Kevin_McKernan

Understanding “Deaths from the pandemic” is much more complicated than it should be. Trying to compare US figures to other countries is even worse.
1/
This is aimed at the political discourse, not a comprehensive discussion of the statistics or underlying science. There are literally thousands of moving parts. But I will try to give you some of the stronger issues so you have the armor you need.
2/
Political dialogue follows:
1) 230,000 deaths have occurred in the US from the Pandemic.

This number is overinflated compared to many countries. The US has a rigorous way of counting deaths and is overly generous in the way COVID19 deaths are defined.
3/
Read 26 tweets
1 Oct
I want to start talking about a severe gap we have in understanding the future of the United States and of the World. I will do it in small bites and explain what the implications are for what is happening now. It starts slowly so bear with me. Please feel free to join in.
1/
Morality and ethics are complicated subjects. Logic is at times complicated. Religious people look to their teachings for guidance in the boundaries of morality. But to continue the discussion you have to add the concept of sovereignty.
2/
For the religious, sovereignty is ceded to higher beings or God. For non-religious sovereignty is given to reason, culture, leaders or others. But in all systems there are anchors for morality, which in turn are translated into ethics, or the rules we follow in life.
3/ ImageImage
Read 16 tweets
23 Sep
@C1aranMurray @LaurenceBettle The issues on tests; sloppy language often misconstrues their use and value. Data, all data, is good. Misuse and misunderstanding can be very bad.
First, this curve:
@C1aranMurray @LaurenceBettle The disease has two distinct phases with serious disease, this is well known, now. What is less understood is whether there are meaningful long term issues, we do not have objective long term data yet.
@C1aranMurray @LaurenceBettle Then this curve:
Read 11 tweets
19 Sep
The problem with our political debate:
- democracy is belief agnostic, it creates a check on arbitrary exercise of power.
- capitalism is agnostic, it creates a more efficient platform for economic growth.
- freedom is agnostic, it allows people to do as they choose.
1/
We conflate many other things together, but these are different choices:
- are we responsible,
- are we moral,
- are we fair and just, and
- are the excesses of each system in proper balance?
2/
These are where a society debates, protests, and considers the restrictions we will place on our systems to maintain balance. But now we have a cultural breakdown in what we consider responsible, moral, fair and just. And many no longer believe in our founding principals.
3/
Read 6 tweets
18 Sep
@gummibear737 @EthicalSkeptic @Covid19Crusher @Hold2LLC @federicolois there is a group of math, modeling, statistics and data analyst experts that are tracking this epidemic. We devote significant effort to rationalizing the discussion by politicians, press and professionals.
1/
We have widely varying medical backgrounds but always test their unhinged reactions, look at them simply, our comments fall into a number of categories:
1) calling out modeling errors,
2) calling out statistical errors,
3) finding patterns that do not agree with them, and

2/
4) offer experience based advice informed by what we see in other work.
We also, dig much deeper into mechanisms of action and the logic of their conclusions. These cause the strongest reactions. But always remember, the math is the math, and the data is the data.
3/
Read 5 tweets
16 Sep
@LaurenceBettle There is a self delusion in Western logical thought that is completely disabling. To investigate and adjudicate requires the assumption that all parties are or can be compelled to investigate. This is false. China has already shown its desire to coverup the origin facts.
1/
@LaurenceBettle China failed to disclose human to human transmission, have steadfastly failed to meet treaty obligations, and so on. In such cases we must revert to a different standard of judgment acting with caution. When not allowed to see the evidence we must not assume innocence.
2/
@LaurenceBettle We can not pronounce in the Western press that these are unfounded theories, instead we must act that there is the possibility they are the truth. It is simply not prudent, where international investigations are blocked, to assume that others are innocent until proven guilty.
3/
Read 5 tweets

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