@sistronk @LivFree20 @MichaelPSenger @MikayesFiona @EthicalSkeptic @TimTravis2 @EduEngineer @gummibear737 @Kevin_McKernan

Understanding “Deaths from the pandemic” is much more complicated than it should be. Trying to compare US figures to other countries is even worse.
1/
This is aimed at the political discourse, not a comprehensive discussion of the statistics or underlying science. There are literally thousands of moving parts. But I will try to give you some of the stronger issues so you have the armor you need.
2/
Political dialogue follows:
1) 230,000 deaths have occurred in the US from the Pandemic.

This number is overinflated compared to many countries. The US has a rigorous way of counting deaths and is overly generous in the way COVID19 deaths are defined.
3/
You need to understand the following:
- Democrat governors(mostly in the Northeast) killed tens of thousands through gross negligence by moving the actively ill into nursing homes. This accounted for many of the deaths in New York and New Jersey. The exact number is hidden.
4/
Even today New York is doing everything they can to obfuscate these numbers. But there is an interesting graph from Statista that gives some insight.
5/
It is still difficult there are many moving factors, Democrats will point to higher living density but this is only a factor.
6/
The important information is about death rate by age. It is mostly a fatal disease of the old and elderly. Comorbidities heavily impact who will die but except for tragic often unexplained exceptions the vast majority are older. The math is the math. 10/28/2020 Covid deaths
7/
By age the pattern shows:
8/
79 percent of deaths are in the group over 65 and we have known this since February. This is important for many reasons:
-this group is easier to protect, as many are not working
-lockdowns directed at the general population were and are stupid.
9/
But now let’s turn back to New York. (And New Jersey) Things bad happened here:
- high density accelerates the epidemic
-they got hit early due to foolish policies at the beginning of the epidemic, remember “come to New York and enjoy the party” on Chinese New Year?
10/
-they moved the sick into extended care facilities
-there are large populations of Italians and Iranians in New York

That said, New York/New Jersey specific issues led to the excess death rate. From the NYT, 38% of deaths have been in extended care.
/11

(nytimes.com/interactive/20…)
And remember.
/12
These combine to clearly show A few states had things go wildly wrong, perhaps not all their direct fault but the evidence is that the Democrat governors here messed up, badly. Among other things, they failed to protect the vulnerable.
/13
These all combine to increase deaths.

2) The count itself is off. Let’s use New York again. A very large percentage of CIVID19 deaths are “probable”. While some of the probable deaths are in fact COVID19 many were never even confirmed as having the disease.
/14
Other Western countries allow this, but do not do it. Germany is a particularly good example, probable deaths are almost non-existent. What is the real number, our loose counting procedures could result in over counting up to ~20% of total US deaths, we do not know.
/15
3) The US has done so badly:
- a bad response by a few states have caused a significant misperception in the US pandemic
/16
-flattening the curve delays the progression of the epidemic. The US compared to Europe let the disease go, but except for better treatments available now, Europe is catching up quickly; the delays have run out. The European response was an economy destroying illusion.
/17
- other places like NZ, Australia, Thailand, Japan and others have done so much better. They have but we have to ask, why? There are many factors at work. Islands can isolate, and there appears to be immunity in much of Southeast Asia and Oceania.
/18
These areas also accept freedom killing intrusion, and many others factors exist. Comparing us to Europe is more appropriate. In short, we have done much less damage to our economy and the pandemic is worse in Europe now than in the US.
/19
- Did they all have to die? Our Democrat dominated bureaucracy has fought for Big Pharma not the citizens of the US. It is simply unconscionable. Retrospective studies have shown many potential effective treatments.
/20
Hydroxychloroquine combined with Azithromycin and Zinc is one of dozens there are many others showing great promise from Vitamin D to Ivermectin. Where are the RCTs, where is the advice to take zinc and Vitamin D? The drive is toward vaccines, meanwhile people are dying.
/21
It is a guess but it is reasonable that if we were aggressively using everything we know about these repurposed drugs we could have prevented up to 80% of the deaths. The correlation of deaths to Vitamin D and Zinc deficiency was identified in January.

Who did this?
/22
The unresponsive authoritarian Democrat dominated bureaucracy aided by an unhinged press, hyper partisan politicians and TDS affected academics.

4) There are other things to consider like death fraud, casedemic versus deaths, and the economic devastation.
/23
But most importantly, deaths resulting from lockdown are climbing rapidly and will exceed COVID19 deaths. The reasons are varied: despair, fear of seeking treatment, food chain disruption, even the violence in the streets is made worse by people losing their jobs.
24/
The toll of economic destruction will be much greater than the pandemic itself. It, likely, will cross over in the next year to being the greater worldwide cause of death.
/end

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More from @letsthinkdeeply

29 Oct
@sistronk @LivFree20 @MikayesFiona @TuckerCarlson @WarRoomPandemic Does Joe have to go?

As we talk about the Biden scandal tied up in the weeds we lose sight of the American instinct to trust people until proven untrustworthy.
1/4
Grifters often have a nice smile, reassuring words and comforting manner. In this case the former VP is also surrounded by loud defenders trying to drown out the scandal. But just stop and think, they are asking us to entrust our future, our safety and our lives to this man.
2/4
They have not answered the most basic questions about their economic relationships around the world. Joe are you a traitor? Joe are you a crook? Joe, why should I trust you with the lives of my family? Who trusts someone to protect their family or wealth given these problems?
3/4
Read 6 tweets
1 Oct
I want to start talking about a severe gap we have in understanding the future of the United States and of the World. I will do it in small bites and explain what the implications are for what is happening now. It starts slowly so bear with me. Please feel free to join in.
1/
Morality and ethics are complicated subjects. Logic is at times complicated. Religious people look to their teachings for guidance in the boundaries of morality. But to continue the discussion you have to add the concept of sovereignty.
2/
For the religious, sovereignty is ceded to higher beings or God. For non-religious sovereignty is given to reason, culture, leaders or others. But in all systems there are anchors for morality, which in turn are translated into ethics, or the rules we follow in life.
3/ ImageImage
Read 16 tweets
23 Sep
@C1aranMurray @LaurenceBettle The issues on tests; sloppy language often misconstrues their use and value. Data, all data, is good. Misuse and misunderstanding can be very bad.
First, this curve:
@C1aranMurray @LaurenceBettle The disease has two distinct phases with serious disease, this is well known, now. What is less understood is whether there are meaningful long term issues, we do not have objective long term data yet.
@C1aranMurray @LaurenceBettle Then this curve:
Read 11 tweets
19 Sep
The problem with our political debate:
- democracy is belief agnostic, it creates a check on arbitrary exercise of power.
- capitalism is agnostic, it creates a more efficient platform for economic growth.
- freedom is agnostic, it allows people to do as they choose.
1/
We conflate many other things together, but these are different choices:
- are we responsible,
- are we moral,
- are we fair and just, and
- are the excesses of each system in proper balance?
2/
These are where a society debates, protests, and considers the restrictions we will place on our systems to maintain balance. But now we have a cultural breakdown in what we consider responsible, moral, fair and just. And many no longer believe in our founding principals.
3/
Read 6 tweets
18 Sep
@gummibear737 @EthicalSkeptic @Covid19Crusher @Hold2LLC @federicolois there is a group of math, modeling, statistics and data analyst experts that are tracking this epidemic. We devote significant effort to rationalizing the discussion by politicians, press and professionals.
1/
We have widely varying medical backgrounds but always test their unhinged reactions, look at them simply, our comments fall into a number of categories:
1) calling out modeling errors,
2) calling out statistical errors,
3) finding patterns that do not agree with them, and

2/
4) offer experience based advice informed by what we see in other work.
We also, dig much deeper into mechanisms of action and the logic of their conclusions. These cause the strongest reactions. But always remember, the math is the math, and the data is the data.
3/
Read 5 tweets
16 Sep
@LaurenceBettle There is a self delusion in Western logical thought that is completely disabling. To investigate and adjudicate requires the assumption that all parties are or can be compelled to investigate. This is false. China has already shown its desire to coverup the origin facts.
1/
@LaurenceBettle China failed to disclose human to human transmission, have steadfastly failed to meet treaty obligations, and so on. In such cases we must revert to a different standard of judgment acting with caution. When not allowed to see the evidence we must not assume innocence.
2/
@LaurenceBettle We can not pronounce in the Western press that these are unfounded theories, instead we must act that there is the possibility they are the truth. It is simply not prudent, where international investigations are blocked, to assume that others are innocent until proven guilty.
3/
Read 5 tweets

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