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Michael Li 李之樸

@mcpli

31 Oct

🚨🚨🚨Over 9.7 million Texans voted through the end of early voting on Friday, a turnout of 57.3% of registered voters.

💥💥💥As of the close of polls yesterday, Texas turnout is 108% of its **total** 2016 turnout - with Election Day still to go.

#txlege #Election2020

🚨💥🚨💥The 9.7 million votes cast in Texas so far are the most in any Texas election in history - and 743k more than the 8.97 million votes cast by Texans in 2016 (when the final turnout was 59.4%).

#txlege #Election2020 2/

Here’s the turnout through the end of early voting in the big Texas counties-

Harris: 57.9%
Dallas: 57.2%
Tarrant: 60.2%
Bexar: (to come)
Travis: 64.2%
Collin: 69.2%
Denton: 67.4%
El Paso: 45.4%
Fort Bend: 68.0%
Williamson: 68.9%
Montgomery: 64.0%

#txlege #Election2020 3/

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Michael Li 李之樸

@mcpli

30 Oct

A revised thread 🧵 with a few thoughts on where Texas turnout could end up. I now think the most likely number is somewhere between 11.3 million and 11.6 million. But it still could be higher. Here’s my thinking. #txlege #Election2020 1/

Right now, my guess is that when polls close today, the Texas early vote will be about 9.6 million, of which about 7.74 million (81%) will be in the big 30 counties, with about 1.86 million votes from the smaller 224 counties. #txlege #Election2020 2/

In 2016, the Election Day vote in the big 30 counties was 29% of the early vote. In 2018, it was 35%.

But this year, of course, is different, both because of the pandemic & because voter energy, so my guess is that the E-Day vote is a fair bit smaller. #txlege #Election2020 3/

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Michael Li 李之樸

@mcpli

30 Oct

🚨🚨🚨This morning, the Texas Secretary of State is reporting that 9,009,850 Texans had voted through Thursday, a turnout of 53.1% of registered voters.

💥💥💥With that, Texas is at 100.5% of its **total** 2016 vote (including Election Day). #txlege #Election2020

Turnout through Thursday in the big Texas counties -

Harris: 54.3%
Dallas: 53.3%
Tarrant: 55.9%
Bexar: 53.6%
Travis: 56.8%
Collin: 65.3%
Denton: 63.4%
El Paso: 41.8%
Fort Bend: 63.5%
Hidalgo: 44.4%
Williamson 65.0%

#txlege #Election2020

Here's how Texas turnout in the big counties looks on a percentage basis compared to prior cycles - with one more (traditionally big) day of early voting left + Election Day. #txlege #Election2020

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Michael Li 李之樸

@mcpli

16 Sep

Today is the 100th anniversary of the detonation of a bomb on Wall Street that killed 38 people & injured hundreds others. The perpetrators were never found, but the bombing would have both immediate & long consequences. 1/

For one thing, the bombing also would prove to be a boon to the career of an ambitious young FBI agent named J. Edgar Hoover, who at the time headed the DOJ’s so-called Radical Division. 2/

The bombing also would play into the anti-immigrant mood of the nation because almost immediately the search for a suspect turned to immigrants - Italian anarchists in particular but in the wake of the Russian Revolution also Jewish & other eastern European immigrants. 3/

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Michael Li 李之樸

@mcpli

6 Aug

The experience of Texas in the last round of redistricting powerfully illustrates how Section 5’s pre-clearance requirements weren’t some mere outdated formality. A thread 🧵 1/ #fairmaps #VRA55

When Texas last drew maps in 2011, it was after a decade when the state saw its population increase by 4.3 million people - making it the fastest growing state in the nation. 2/3 of that growth was Latino & nearly 90% non-white. 2/ #fairmaps #VRA55

As a result of that explosive growth, Texas gained 4 new congressional seats - the most number of seats ever gained by a state covered by Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act. 3/ #fairmaps #VRA55

Read 15 tweets

Michael Li 李之樸

@mcpli

11 Jul

Whatever can be said of Texas politics in 2020, the state is about to undergo an accelerating demographic shift that will see it add a net 630k non-white voters by 2022 and a net 1.3 million non-white voters by 2024. #txlege

By contrast, Texas will add only 142k additional white voters between now & 2022 and only 286k between now & 2024 (Texas’ white pop is growing too but older Texans are disproportionately white meaning that deaths offset much of white pop growth). #txlege 2/

Obviously, the potential ramifications are huge. Not only for Texas but the nation. For one thing, it would be *really* hard (and maybe impossible) for Republicans to put together a map to the White House without Texas. #txlege 3/

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