🚨💥🚨💥The 9.7 million votes cast in Texas so far are the most in any Texas election in history - and 743k more than the 8.97 million votes cast by Texans in 2016 (when the final turnout was 59.4%).
Turnout in the suburban Texas counties is especially 👀 because they not only exceeded their past raw total turnout (somewhat expected b/c they also added a lot of people), but Denton, Fort Bend & Williamson have had their highest % turnout this century. #txlege#Election2020 4/
With Texas turnout already at 57.3% and Election Day to go, here’s a look at how that compares to the final turnout in elections going back to 1970. #txlege#Election2020 5/
And here's a look at how the early vote in the big Texas counties compares to the final turnout in recent elections. #txlege#Election2020 6/
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A revised thread 🧵 with a few thoughts on where Texas turnout could end up. I now think the most likely number is somewhere between 11.3 million and 11.6 million. But it still could be higher. Here’s my thinking. #txlege#Election2020 1/
Right now, my guess is that when polls close today, the Texas early vote will be about 9.6 million, of which about 7.74 million (81%) will be in the big 30 counties, with about 1.86 million votes from the smaller 224 counties. #txlege#Election2020 2/
In 2016, the Election Day vote in the big 30 counties was 29% of the early vote. In 2018, it was 35%.
But this year, of course, is different, both because of the pandemic & because voter energy, so my guess is that the E-Day vote is a fair bit smaller. #txlege#Election2020 3/
Here's how Texas turnout in the big counties looks on a percentage basis compared to prior cycles - with one more (traditionally big) day of early voting left + Election Day. #txlege#Election2020
So, the Texas Secretary of State put out an updated turnout report yesterday evening *reducing* Texas turnout through Wed by 293,488 to 8,231,936 (it had been reporting 8,575,424). #txlege#Election2020 1/
That revision pushes Texas turnout back to 48.6% (the SoS had been reporting 50.3%).
From my look at the numbers, Montgomery Co’s numbers for Wed dropped by about 30k and Travis Co’s numbers by 20k. Brazos Co went up 4690. #txlege#Election2020 2/
Other than that there were minor additions and subtractions in other counties, so most of the adjustment appears to have been in earlier days. #txlege#Election2020 3/
Today is the 100th anniversary of the detonation of a bomb on Wall Street that killed 38 people & injured hundreds others. The perpetrators were never found, but the bombing would have both immediate & long consequences. 1/
For one thing, the bombing also would prove to be a boon to the career of an ambitious young FBI agent named J. Edgar Hoover, who at the time headed the DOJ’s so-called Radical Division. 2/
The bombing also would play into the anti-immigrant mood of the nation because almost immediately the search for a suspect turned to immigrants - Italian anarchists in particular but in the wake of the Russian Revolution also Jewish & other eastern European immigrants. 3/
The experience of Texas in the last round of redistricting powerfully illustrates how Section 5’s pre-clearance requirements weren’t some mere outdated formality. A thread 🧵 1/ #fairmaps#VRA55
When Texas last drew maps in 2011, it was after a decade when the state saw its population increase by 4.3 million people - making it the fastest growing state in the nation. 2/3 of that growth was Latino & nearly 90% non-white. 2/ #fairmaps#VRA55
As a result of that explosive growth, Texas gained 4 new congressional seats - the most number of seats ever gained by a state covered by Section 5 of the Voting Rights Act. 3/ #fairmaps#VRA55
Whatever can be said of Texas politics in 2020, the state is about to undergo an accelerating demographic shift that will see it add a net 630k non-white voters by 2022 and a net 1.3 million non-white voters by 2024. #txlege
By contrast, Texas will add only 142k additional white voters between now & 2022 and only 286k between now & 2024 (Texas’ white pop is growing too but older Texans are disproportionately white meaning that deaths offset much of white pop growth). #txlege 2/
Obviously, the potential ramifications are huge. Not only for Texas but the nation. For one thing, it would be *really* hard (and maybe impossible) for Republicans to put together a map to the White House without Texas. #txlege 3/