Surge in Covid-19 cases exposes limits of test and trace programmes
I don’t think that the Gov has quite grasped that they need to have sufficiently effective measures to mean that the institutions that have to respond to infection aren’t overwhelmed ft.com/content/84f531…
Official data published on Thursday revealed that fewer than one in four tests — 22.6 per cent — taken in person at a testing site in the UK were received within 24 hours.
I often wonder what would have happened if they had set up isolation centres/ hotels right at the beginning with an “IF in doubt, formal isolation” regulations at least until such time as molecular lab, IT systems and contact tracing were fully in place.
REQUIRING people visiting the U.K. to stay in one as quarantine monitored at their own expense.
Citizens at taxpayer expense.
Vietnam, S Korea amongst others prioritised monitored quarantine.
The up front expense of that surely would have paid off many times by now?
Taiwan, pop 23 mill had a plan after SARS and enacted before China locked down. It focussed on speed and rapid upping of testing, quarantining, PPE and contact tracing capacity
Very very surprised to hear @ChrisMasonBBC describe the current positives, hospitalisations/ deaths has come as a surprise given both Vallance and Whitty spelt out that the Tiers would not be enough to stop the growth.
Sage IN JULY said R = 1.7 by October.
@JeremyFarrar in JUNE said the virus would be spiking in October without effective intervention.
Even early OCTOBER the Government was told specifically by SAGE that we were on trajectory to exceed RWS (NB REASONABLE worst case scenario. NOT WORST case scenario.)
RWC was with measures.
Worst case is a lot worse & is when Covid is unmitigated
A leaked internal NHS report has warned hospitals in the region could see 371 patients in intensive care by the end of November, 100 more than the region’s 271 capacity.
That capacity was tested but never breached in the Spring surge.
On the current trajectory which has been locked onto the reasonable worst case trajectory, the region will see 2975 Covid patents admitted just to the Greater Manchester Region alone by the end on Nov.
If the herd immunity genius will explain how occupying 60% of a region’s beds with acutely ill Covid patients will help all those other conditions normally supported then I would like to hear it.
Maybe their plan is anyone with Covid should just die gasping for breath at home?
Areas with the highest take up saw an acceleration of cases in the weeks after the scheme started and a deceleration in the weeks after the scheme ending