🦠🦠🦠 24,405 new cases

⚰️⚰️⚰️ 274 deaths

🏥 Admissions running v close to 1500 a day now
Last data to Mon

🛌 Patients In hospital 10,564 yesterday without NI
Must be at 11k by now

Ventilator beds 975 . 39 in NI suggest they must be at or near their 69 limit (30 non CV19)
And just look what the excellent @JoePajak has done with his already good graph.

Given it an extra polish to make it easier to read.

You can now track more easily where we were in March v direction of travel now

27/11/20 - 1k deaths

The Y axis is deaths @JoePajak ?
The point is as much to show how far and how fast we are continuing to move upwards since SAGE recommended the circuit break.

In fact at the height of the Spring Surge (April 12) we had ⬇️20k in hospital. Now we have c 11k.
Tomorrow is the day that they are supposed to have the “capacity” to test 500k people each day for the virus.

In fact supposedly 459k P1 and P2 “capacity” today.

Where is it ? Well P1 has notionally doubled in 5 days.(83k to 168.8k)

P2 ⬆️ bit

But is it being used?
No. Just 74k P1 tests processed (hospital & healthcare)

The “capacity” at least in P1 said to be due to some bigger processing machines. So are they just sitting there or what?

P2 is very up and down

And beware of them claiming capacity for P4 tests for ONS & REACT surveys.
So when they claim 500k capacity tomorrow let us drill down and find out what that really means

I suspect they simply aren’t testing to capacity because Trace can’t cope with more results

They haven’t thought it through
They have to control the virus transmission conditions 1st
#Newsnight tonight.

Very interestingly they talk about P1 NHS labs CAPACITY OF 100k tests a day. Not 167k as mentioned here.

They also say they are pressured to SAY they have bigger capacity than they have. The very best on the very best of day.

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More from @fascinatorfun

31 Oct
Very very surprised to hear @ChrisMasonBBC describe the current positives, hospitalisations/ deaths has come as a surprise given both Vallance and Whitty spelt out that the Tiers would not be enough to stop the growth.

Sage IN JULY said R = 1.7 by October.
@JeremyFarrar in JUNE said the virus would be spiking in October without effective intervention.

IMPERIAL modelled it

@IndependentSage has been spelling it out FOR MONTHS.

And engaged amateurs were able to grasp this MONTHS ago.

So why the “surprise” @ChrisMasonBBC
Even early OCTOBER the Government was told specifically by SAGE that we were on trajectory to exceed RWS (NB REASONABLE worst case scenario. NOT WORST case scenario.)

RWC was with measures.
Worst case is a lot worse & is when Covid is unmitigated

The pale mauves upper curves Image
Read 4 tweets
31 Oct
🦠 21,915 new cases. (When did I start being relieved that 22k new cases were not as bad as it could be).

⚰️⚰️⚰️. 326 (28 day deaths)

🏥 admissions 1444 as of last Wednesday

🛌 IN Hospital 10,718 yesterday without NI that had 354 in hospital on Thursday . So over 11k. Image
The data on admission, in hospital , ventilation (978) and deaths including the ONS data that stood at 58,925 on 16/10/20.

In fact from the daily 28 day death data that looks to have to increase by 65 due to reporting lag

Since then there have been AT LEAST another 2,659 deaths ImageImageImageImage
⚰️⚰️⚰️. I think, therefore, there are AT LEAST 64,300 COVID certified deaths to date
Read 6 tweets
31 Oct
OK. The PM Press Briefing is at 5 pm now.

How will he rebadge a lockdown to pretend it isn’t a lockdown and it was something he was planning to do all along?

A SAVE OUR SCHOOLS one (SOS for secret signalling).

Contributions welcome.
Maybe a Christmas theme?

Save Our Santa (still subliminal SOS message).

We’ll Be Home For Christmas Bonus.
No Brace of Pheasant for Christmas. Just “Brace! Brace!”
Read 4 tweets
30 Oct
This is the Greater Manchester Region.

A leaked internal NHS report has warned hospitals in the region could see 371 patients in intensive care by the end of November, 100 more than the region’s 271 capacity.

That capacity was tested but never breached in the Spring surge.
On the current trajectory which has been locked onto the reasonable worst case trajectory, the region will see 2975 Covid patents admitted just to the Greater Manchester Region alone by the end on Nov.
If the herd immunity genius will explain how occupying 60% of a region’s beds with acutely ill Covid patients will help all those other conditions normally supported then I would like to hear it.

Maybe their plan is anyone with Covid should just die gasping for breath at home?
Read 4 tweets
30 Oct
Surge in Covid-19 cases exposes limits of test and trace programmes

I don’t think that the Gov has quite grasped that they need to have sufficiently effective measures to mean that the institutions that have to respond to infection aren’t overwhelmed ft.com/content/84f531…
Official data published on Thursday revealed that fewer than one in four tests — 22.6 per cent — taken in person at a testing site in the UK were received within 24 hours.
I often wonder what would have happened if they had set up isolation centres/ hotels right at the beginning with an “IF in doubt, formal isolation” regulations at least until such time as molecular lab, IT systems and contact tracing were fully in place.
Read 5 tweets
30 Oct
#EatOutToHelpCovidOut

According to this Warwick University study

Areas with the highest take up saw an acceleration of cases in the weeks after the scheme started and a deceleration in the weeks after the scheme ending
This is fascinating!

Do read the thread.

Might interest you @_johnbye @jneill @chrischirp @ADMBriggs
Here’s a link to the paper

warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/econom…
Read 6 tweets

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