The EV+Mail numbers coming out of NC
The dem lead down to just +5.9pts (was+16pts in 2016 the GOP shaved another 0.7pts off their lead. The dems lead in total votes now down to +255k (Clinton had a lead of +310k & lost)
The dem lead down to just +5.9pts (was+16pts in 2016 the GOP shaved another 0.7pts off their lead. The dems lead in total votes now down to +255k (Clinton had a lead of +310k & lost)
Today is the last day of Early voting in NC. Unless the dems have a major turnout today, it looks like the Gop is going into ED doing at least 54,700 votes better than they went into 2016.
BUT
At this point it all comes down to turnout on ED.
BUT
At this point it all comes down to turnout on ED.
The % of EV+mail of black vote is at 19.3%. It was at 22.2% in 2016 early voting. The dems will need a large black turnout on ED to make up for the low turnout during EV+mail.
However, the dem strongholds are at about +65% turnout so not sure where that vote will come from.
However, the dem strongholds are at about +65% turnout so not sure where that vote will come from.
The total turnout for NC in 2016 was 68.98% with 4,741,564 total votes.
So far 4,345,427 have voted in EV+mail with many of the GOP counties around 55% turnout.
There are a total of 7,342,553 registered voters in NC a 68.98% turnout would give 5,064,893 or 719.5K votes left
So far 4,345,427 have voted in EV+mail with many of the GOP counties around 55% turnout.
There are a total of 7,342,553 registered voters in NC a 68.98% turnout would give 5,064,893 or 719.5K votes left
It looks like there are many more votes left in the GOP counties than the dem counties. No doubt that each side has been cannibalizing their ED vote but it looks like the dems are about tapped out while the Gop still has gas in the tank.
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