ARM + AZ FMs met in Geneva with OSCE's Minsk Group today, but no new ceasefire agreed. Instead, sides agree to observe international humanitarian law by not targeting civilian populations or non-military objects. Crucial that sides are held to this. 1/7
Sides agreed also to implement exchange of bodies and submit lists of POWs within 1 week; and submit comments + questions relating to wider conditions (beyond humanitarian) for a ceasefire - item 2 of the 10/10 Moscow ceasefire document. 2/7
Geneva talks also attended by ICRC President and UN High Commissioner for Refugees – signal that the brutality of this war for civilians is registering? 3/7
According to US security advisor comments Washington exploring ceasefire monitoring options with “Scandinavian governments”. Wider Minsk Group members Finland and Sweden both have institutional histories as former co-Chairs, working with Russia, of Minsk Group. 4/7
Positive that both humanitarian + security needs are being foregrounded; international attention needs to remain focused on violations of intl humanitarian law, serious reports of which continue to surface. 5/7
Factors against de-escalation remain strong. Azerbaijan’s advance has regained most of 4/7 occupied districts; now very close to major military-symbolic success if takes control of Shusha; popular mood in AZ reportedly ready to tolerate heavy losses for a successful campaign. 6/7
Plenty of manoeuvring among regional powers but local stakes still greater than external levers. Humanitarian implications of further hostilities very grave; military dynamic/momentum still precludes definition of terms for resumption of negotiations. 7/7
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
