Alina Chan Profile picture
31 Oct, 13 tweets, 3 min read
Quote: WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a virtual press briefing on Friday that the UN agency was continuing "to establish the origins of the virus to prevent future outbreaks." straitstimes.com/world/europe/f…
"Scientists believe the killer virus jumped from animals to humans, possibly from a market in the city of Wuhan selling exotic animals for meat."

Unclear where this statement came from. @WHO ? But it's in a few articles - no person or organization identified as the source.
It could be helpful for the @WHO to publish the collective affiliations of the international experts it has engaged to conduct the independent investigations into SARS-CoV-2 origins who.int/director-gener…
The experts engaged in this controversial investigation are possibly better left anonymous, but if their extensive affiliations are published in a list, without assigning affiliations to individuals, this can be a way to ascertain conflicts of interest w/o exposing individuals...
... for example, if EcoHealth Alliance, Thousand Talents program, or other somehow implicated institutes/programs are listed multiple times (also useful to know how many experts in total have been engaged), this should raise some flags.
At the very least, I'm hoping that this list of international experts is shared with WHO members who can consult with their own governments (maybe at the level of Congress?) on whether the list makes sense.

Wait, is the US still a member of the WHO?
"In any case, the United States cannot leave the agency until July (2021), because American law requires that the administration give one year’s notice and pay all back dues owed."
nytimes.com/2020/10/30/wor…
Someone asked what I think an ideal team for conducting an independent investigation of SARS-CoV-2 origins should look like. These are the top criteria imo:

1. None of the experts on the team should be buddies with each other or come from the same institute/organization/program.
2. Each member should ideally come from a different country; every continent or major geographical region must be represented on the team. Still keeping in mind these members should not have history of co-publishing, collaborating in international projects, funding each other etc
3. There should not be an over-representation of experts from any one particular field, e.g., a team that is 50% evolutionary biology experts.

This should avoid peer pressure to agree with one another or the top expert in that specialization on the team.
4. If it is necessary to have members with conflicts of interest on the team, then the reasons for this appointment should be published AND an expert with an opposing conflict of interest should be appointed to the team so as to increase accountability in the investigation.
For example, if an expert who has clearly expressed their scientific opinion that SARS2 is 100% natural is appointed to the team, then it makes sense that an expert who has clearly expressed their opinion that SARS2 is from a lab should be appointed to balance the investigation.
I think the above are very reasonable criteria that should even appeal to China if they're worried about a US-biased investigation.

Would be useful for someone in the know to check the current team membership using the above criteria.

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More from @Ayjchan

1 Nov
"People have already endured the pain of lockdowns once. They’re tired of the pandemic, and leaders in some cities and states are even fighting back against federally imposed measures."

vox.com/21514530/europ…
What's happening in Europe?

UK: hospitals "will run out of capacity in weeks"

PM announced a second (4-week) lockdown to prevent a "medical and moral disaster" + "the furlough system paying 80% of employee wages will be extended through November."

bbc.com/news/uk-547639…
France: ">half of the country's intensive care beds are already filled with Covid-19 patients"

Germany: "(Merkel) had wanted to act sooner but had faced opposition from.., regional leaders. “If we wait until the ICUs are full, then it will be too late“"

nbcnews.com/news/world/fra…
Read 9 tweets
29 Oct
Not sure if I'm reading this document right, but it looks like there are many things we should be investigating to see if SARS-CoV-2 has natural or lab origins. nonproliferation.org/op-49-a-guide-…
Let's apply the Investigation Methodology shown in Fig 2 to the current pandemic. A natural origin has not been confirmed; no animal samples from the market or Hubei province have tested positive despite a scattering of pangolin CoV papers from Guangdong and GuangXi province. Image
Despite the lack of evidence for a natural origin, many experts have come out as saying that it is clear that SARS2 has completely natural origins and that lab-based scenarios are implausible. The independent investigation of lab is led by long time funder+collaborator of WIV.
Read 4 tweets
29 Oct
If schools, restaurants, shops, bars are to reopen and stay open, we need to widely implement informed measures to reduce the risk of indoor virus transmission - especially during the winter when outdoor options are reduced. english.elpais.com/society/2020-1…
Starting to see people asking "What about Sweden?"

Why not try it out in the USA. Compare covid transmission in schools that comply with these measures vs. schools that have decided not to. After that, calibrate public health measures accordingly.
It's important to note that few people are actually calling for 100% lockdowns.

Many want to re-open with safety measures "regular testing, to contact tracing to identify the source of outbreaks, to reporting school-associated cases publicly, regularly"

npr.org/2020/10/21/925…
Read 4 tweets
26 Oct
@AlexBerenson This is a question I've been asking as well. Where was RaTG13's data stored since 2018? Not in a public or password-restricted national database because even other Chinese groups only noticed the 99% match between SARS2 and the btCoV/4991 short sequence published in 2016 on NCBI.
@AlexBerenson Even scientists from the State Key Lab of Virology, Wuhan didn't have access to RaTG13 data (collected 2017-2018). In their Feb 5 paper, they lamented: "the BtCoV/4991 sequence was only partial and thus no comparisons can be made for the rest of genomes." tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.10…
@AlexBerenson Although the WIV publication that first named RaTG13 was put on bioRxiv on Jan 23, the raw data and genome sequence for RaTG13 were only deposited on a public database on Feb 13 and Mar 24, respectively. ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/MN9965…
Read 4 tweets
25 Oct
Get ready. This is going to be an important thread. Election season will be over soon and hopefully more people will devote some attention to this...

I'm going to walk through a timeline of SARS2-related virus data published in the months after the outbreak. (1/30)
Since the outbreak in late 2019, events have been unfolding at such a fast pace that it is difficult to keep track of what happened and in what order.

I use visualizations of the timeline to follow key events relating to the search for the animal host of SARS2. (2/30) Image
Even today, I still hear people saying that SARS-CoV-2 came from pangolins and a Seafood market in Wuhan. I hope this analysis will help to clear things up. It will refresh us on significant early pandemic events and major publications discussing the origins of the virus (3/30). Image
Read 36 tweets
23 Oct
On masks: the experts are still debating whether masks reduce infectious dose of SARS2 (and, to a certain extent, transmission).

Data suggests that mask-wearing is likely correlated with less COVID prevalence in the area.
Pro-maskers are not pushing masks because of personal pleasure from making other people wear masks indoors. I personally hate wearing masks. But people are advocating for mask-wearing because it's quite possible that it protects against transmission.
Right now, you're right, we cannot distinguish the protective effects of masks (any type) from other public health measures.

But is this the war you want to fight?
Personally, it's more important to find out where SARS2 came from. Whether there's more where it came from.
Read 10 tweets

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