Thread by @DrTedJ

Ok, Buttigieg & black folks.

Look, his inability to gain traction w/ black voters is MUCH less a function of his being gay than of his lack of connection/reputation. Of course there’s homophobia - in the US & in black America; the question is does it affect black vote choice…

We know that Buttigieg’s white support is on the rise while his black support has remained at or near statistical zero. This 3% in the latest YouGov poll shows how anemic his black support still is.

But here is what we also know….

His favorability is highest among black folks. The importance of gay rights is highest among black Americans. Black folks think he’s more electable than whites/Hispanics.

This is also true – black churches, esp south of the Mason-Dixon (MD, NC stand out) – were some of loudest objectors to same-sex marriage a decade ago.

But religious views DO NOT generally dictate the black electorate’s votes in elections. We know this.

Consider the Chicago mayoral election where black gay candidate Lori Lightfoot won thanks to black voters.

AND where there was open acknowledgement that if she’d kissed her partner in a black church, she’d be asked to leave.

cnn.com/2019/04/07/us/…

As a prominent, recent black candidate for office told me: “Even the black pastors who were afraid of being forced to conduct same-sex marriages in their churches said they understood & supported the need to protect the civil rights of LGBTQ Americans.”

As a prominent black candidate for office recently told me: “Even the black pastors who were afraid of being forced to conduct same-sex marriages in their churches told me they understood & supported the need to protect the civil rights of LGBTQ Americans.”

Consider this: sexism is real, but it doesn’t stop the vast majority of black men from supporting black female candidates. Why? Bc race for black voters is the identity w/ the strongest influence on voting behavior. Other identities/views are often subordinated to group interest.

Bottom line: Buttgieg’s poor performance among black voters – when it comes to vote choice – has more to do w/ his record in South Bend, his lack of connection, & the other Dems running than his sexual orientation.

All else being equal, a straight Buttigieg is prob still @ 3%/