Share this page!

David Montgomery Profile picture
Twitter logo
1 Nov, 4 tweets, 2 min read
Over the past week, Minnesota has averaged more than 2,400 new #COVID19 cases per day. The average positivity rate is up to 9.9%. ImageImage
No sign in sight of the outbreak slackening in hard-hit northwestern Minnesota: Image
Another 18 #COVID19 deaths reported today; that’s average for the past week. Image
The 7-day trend for new hospitalizations is 118/day, as high as it’s been. Image

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
　

Keep Current with David Montgomery

David Montgomery Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @dhmontgomery

David Montgomery Profile picture
3 Nov
Uh, so…

Remember how LAST Tuesday we had a huge spike in positivity rate, driven by cases rising and tests falling?

Well, I think there’s something about Tuesdays now.

I hope you’re sitting down. Image
Again: do NOT put too much emphasis on the one-day positivity rate north of 30%. Focus on the trend. Which is still really bad. Image
This positivity spike comes from a new *record high* number of reported cases, combined with a huge dropoff in reported tests. ImageImage
Read 10 tweets
David Montgomery Profile picture
3 Nov
As of this morning, 1.85 million Minnesotans voted before Election Day. (This number will tick up a little more, as ballots arrive today, and — courts depending — over the next few days.)

283K outstanding ballots, many of whom are probably people who decided to vote in-person. Image
More than 130,000 Minnesotans voted early between yesterday morning and this morning. It looks like ~70,000 of those might have been early-in-person (judging by the number of requests) and ~55-60K were mail ballots arriving. Image
Overall, Minnesota’s 1.85M early votes is about 62% of 2016 turnout, and about 45% of the total eligible elctorate. Image
Read 4 tweets
David Montgomery Profile picture
2 Nov
1.72 million Minnesotans have already voted in the 2020 presiential election. There are about 340,000 absentee ballots out that have not been returned yet; some may still be in transit, while many of the rest might be people who are planning on voting in-person. Image
Here’s the rate of early voting in Minnesota over time. Even if a big final rush happens in the next 24 hours, we’ll almost certainly fall short of 2 million early votes (and definitely won’t, unlike some other states with lower historic turnout, surpass 2016 total votes). Image
Here’s that same chart, early voting over time in Minnesota, as a percent of 2016 turnout: Image
Read 5 tweets
David Montgomery Profile picture
2 Nov
The big picture: new #COVID19 cases in Minnesota started rising steadily in mid-September, but really started *exploding* a week ago. Not just an artifact of testing levels, either — that’s when the positivity rate shot up, too. ImageImage
But testing *is* very robust, the highest it’s ever been on a Monday in Minnesota. That explains a little bit of the case growth (or rather, old case figures were depressed by limited testing), but not all of it. Image
Newly reported #COVID19 hospitalizations continue to trend unceasingly upward: Image
Read 7 tweets
David Montgomery Profile picture
29 Oct
Buckle up, this is a bad news day for #COVID19 in Minnesota.

To start, a new record number of newly reported cases — 2,872, smashing the old record of 2,297 from two weeks ago.

MN is now *averaging* 2,000 cases per day.
Meanwhile MN also reported more than 30 #COVID19 deaths today for the second time this month, as the weekly average moves up.

Keep in in mind these are deaths deriving from cases a couple weeks ago. Case loads are higher now.
Now, some of today’s record number of cases is due to testing jumping back up to 30,000 after a few lower days.

But MN was already reporting 2,000+ cases/day with LOW testing. The outbreak is real. MN’s 7-day positivity rate is up to 8.7%. Cases are growing faster than tests.
Read 11 tweets
David Montgomery Profile picture
29 Oct
My latest for @MPRnews is a look at Minnesota’s political geography — where the votes are for Democrats and Republicans here, and how this is changing in ways that will determine whether Biden or Trump wins.

Lots of charts! mprnews.org/story/2020/10/…
@MPRnews So Greater Minnesota has been a stronghold for Republicans for a long time, reliably giving a net margin of tens of thousands of voters.

In 2016, Donald Trump blew all past Republican performers there out of the water. SIX TIMES Romney’s margin there: mprnews.org/story/2020/10/…
@MPRnews But even with this unprecedented performance in rural Minnesota, getting more net votes there than any top-of-the-ticket Republican this century, Trump fell just short… because DFL turnout in Hennepin & Ramsey ALSO exploded in 2016: mprnews.org/story/2020/10/…
Read 9 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Like this author's thread?

Get email notifications when new thread is out from this Author!

Check out other threads from this Author!

Read all threads by @dhmontgomery